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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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11 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You sure?
it’s been between 70 and 87 three times in the last five years between Feb and Mar. 

 

 

10 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

As modeled it is possible for at least a day. At least near 70 anyways. 

right. like I said in my post, widespread 70’s are unlikely.

I understand that it is possible, and I understand that it has happened before. but it is unlikely to be widespread 

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Just now, SJonesWX said:

 

right. like I said in my post, widespread 70’s are unlikely.

I understand that it is possible, and I understand that it has happened before. but it is unlikely to be widespread 

So far all guidance is showing that, but we shall see.  That is a respectable warm punch. 

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9 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

 

right. like I said in my post, widespread 70’s are unlikely.

I understand that it is possible, and I understand that it has happened before. but it is unlikely to be widespread 

MHT has a shot Thu with enough sun...outside shot Friday if the fropa holds off. 

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17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Next thing really is severe wx season...crap under two months away now and not even prepared yet. Time flying fast. Only one more full month to go until we're into severe season

Severe season is easy in SNE. Almost always expect under performers...a few EF0 warm front spinners, maybe a rogue EF1 and then a lot of marginal hail and rotting branches down from 40 knot gusts. 

About twice or three times a decade we get a real sweet setup. We’re like the mid-Atlantic coast for snow events when it comes to severe wx. 

Hopefully you get to chase out in the plains. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Severe season is easy in SNE. Almost always expect under performers...a few EF0 warm front spinners, maybe a rogue EF1 and then a lot of marginal hail and rotting branches down from 40 knot gusts. 

About twice or three times a decade we get a real sweet setup. We’re like the mid-Atlantic coast for snow events when it comes to severe wx. 

Hopefully you get to chase out in the plains. 

I was all set to go last year then COVID happened. Last season sucked anyways in the Plains...in fact, it's been relatively lackluster for the better part of the last decade outside of 2011 and another year or two. I am hopeful for this season though with the moderate La Nina with active southern stream. SSTA's recovering quickly in the Gulf too. Obviously not going to the Plains there since we're not out of the woods yet, but going next season for sure.

Maybe this summer we can get some potent squall lines. 

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Your posts are like trying to run a snow plow business in Southern MD. It's just not happening, man.

:lol: 

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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Why post those awful maps? The mean is like 3-6” for most on every other site.  Those stormvista maps are the worst, they should say cm instead of inches and then it would be more accurate. 

Is there that much difference between 3-6 and 4-8 on a clown map for 15 days?

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Hopefully we can get strong enough mixing Wednesday and Thursday but a sneak look at some soundings shows there may be a bit of an inversion between like 850 and 925 which could prevent deeper mixing. Friday would probably offer best shot at mixing ahead of cold front but also more in the way of clouds. May also have a quite a bit of high-level clouds Wednesday and Thursday. 70 would be sick though!!

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54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Severe season is easy in SNE. Almost always expect under performers...a few EF0 warm front spinners, maybe a rogue EF1 and then a lot of marginal hail and rotting branches down from 40 knot gusts. 

About twice or three times a decade we get a real sweet setup. We’re like the mid-Atlantic coast for snow events when it comes to severe wx. 

Hopefully you get to chase out in the plains. 

lol yup. The last 3 years were actually pretty active locally with big wind events (5/15/2018 and 8/27/2020) but they're definitely the exception rather than the norm. 

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4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

lol yup. The last 3 years were actually pretty active locally with big wind events (5/15/2018 and 8/27/2020) but they're definitely the exception rather than the norm. 

Had dewpoints been 5-7F higher 5/15/2018 we probably would have had a couple EF3+ rip across the state

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Had dewpoints been 5-7F higher 5/15/2018 we probably would have had a couple EF3+ rip across the state

Sort of an interesting thought experiment is what happens if we continue to see these really warm SSTs in the warm season in Long Island Sound and the Atlantic. 

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3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Sort of an interesting thought experiment is what happens if we continue to see these really warm SSTs in the warm season in Long Island Sound and the Atlantic. 

That is something to really monitor and keep in mind, especially if we end up with a big warmup early. Something like this just seems to becoming a new norm. There are so many things this could impact such as weaker inversions and greater low-level instability. Despite the fact they're a bit below-average just off the Southeast coast, that should change quickly over the next week with that ridge becoming established. A huge issue too should we get something tropical coming up the coast. We really got pretty lucky with Isaias last year because had it not made that second landfall I think we would have been screwed. 

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