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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Shouldn't easonal change be a modulating force there ?

if the EPS is right about the EPO burst in the foreground, I'm not sure seasonal modulation makes that a safe assumption for afterward ... because, it is not just seasonal change that has me scratching my head. Longer termed pre-existing and ongoing super synoptic signals ( La Nina and HC ... ) don't really support it either.  I've been hammering that I know ...but it's unfortunately true. It's not a metric in deterministic forecasting techniques as much as it is a "synergistic" awareness as to what can happen from that - 

So I guess what I'm getting at as that I don't have much confidence that we are set up for a nice winter assumption ...like this "enabling" EPS is presently fighting off those signals.  Yeah, yeah...we've had blizzards in April too.   

I'll tell you though..it's baffling.  The La Nina climate... The HC stuff... the GEFs... seeming to have telecon layout that looks at this time more like those signals ... yet, the EPS won't, and the operational runs also won't.

To me that is an epic indicator battle -

00z GEFS sort of had that -EPO look too like the EPS. Maybe some slight differences in details, but yeah that would work.

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Shouldn't easonal change be a modulating force there ?

if the EPS is right about the EPO burst in the foreground, I'm not sure seasonal modulation makes that a safe assumption for afterward ... because, it is not just seasonal change that has me scratching my head. Longer termed pre-existing and ongoing super synoptic signals ( La Nina and HC ... ) don't really support it either.  I've been hammering that I know ...but it's unfortunately true. It's not a metric in deterministic forecasting techniques as much as it is a "synergistic" awareness as to what can happen from that - 

So I guess what I'm getting at as that I don't have much confidence that we are set up for a nice winter assumption ...like this "enabling" EPS is presently fighting off those signals.  Yeah, yeah...we've had blizzards in April too.   

I'll tell you though..it's baffling.  The La Nina climate... The HC stuff... the GEFs... seeming to have telecon layout that looks at this time more like those signals ... yet, the EPS won't, and the operational runs also won't.

To me that is an epic indicator battle -

Taking a stab at the EPO part tho ... that looks like a direct EPS response to the MJO ...but the MJO is in negative/destructive interference trying to move momentum through Phase 8 ..and to me that's interesting.  It could be the the flow relxation of seasonal change is sort of physically "allowing" more MJO exertion to begin registering - even though the winter MJO suppression was true, it may not be AS true... 

Not sure I follow...you saying you don't believe the cold dump because of the background La Nina? I suppose it could fail...it's not an overwhelming signal yet though it has been trending more pronounced each run.

I don't know how "wintry" it would be anyway unless we get a precip event out of it. As you know, this time of the year you can be 44F under clear skies despite 522 thicknesses. The sun is just too strong....but if you have precip falling in the same column, it's 21F blowing snow off your roof.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure I follow...you saying you don't believe the cold dump because of the background La Nina? I suppose it could fail...it's not an overwhelming signal yet though it has been trending more pronounced each run.

I don't know how "wintry" it would be anyway unless we get a precip event out of it. As you know, this time of the year you can be 44F under clear skies despite 522 thicknesses. The sun is just too strong....but if you have precip falling in the same column, it's 21F blowing snow off your roof.

No ... I as talking about the afterward period ... the assumption/or expectation that the settling flow will just go into a western ridge after that "EPO burst" ... 

The combination of seasonal modulation WITH those background signals ...doesn't support that in my mind.  It may though -

I was thinking, we didn't exactly polish a very La Nina February, either... So perhaps that part of it is just not that factor-able. 

As far as the EPO its self ... I am wondering if the MJO may be "more able" to register a forcing in the flow as we are entering less gradient - window of forcing opportunity?    something like that

 

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No ... I as talking about the afterward period ... the assumption/or expectation that the settling flow will just go into a western ridge after that "EPO burst" ... 

The combination of seasonal modulation WITH those background signals ...doesn't support that in my mind.  It may though -

I was thinking, we didn't exactly polish a very La Nina February, either... So perhaps that part of it is just not that factor-able. 

As far as the EPO its self ... I am wondering if the MJO may be "more able" to register a forcing in the flow as we are entering less gradient - window of forcing opportunity?    something like that

 

This whole season has not behaved like Nina it seems. I haven't looked, but maybe the tropical forcing is playing around with the Pacific and giving rise to some western ridging as modeled.

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29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This whole season has not behaved like Nina it seems. I haven't looked, but maybe the tropical forcing is playing around with the Pacific and giving rise to some western ridging as modeled.

 

Yeah I know - tell me 'bout it.  Although, I might leave out the "...it seems," and opt for 'at any point in time', instead -

Which for my own hypothesis bank, it's consistent with the ENSO model damping idea - forcing and losing correlative relationship at decadal scales ( ...so gradually losing...).  

The idea therein, the HC is absorbing it too deeply such that the thermal presentation/physics in the ocean-atmospheric coupled sense ...is become too removed from the gradient of the westerlies.  If there is not detection there ...there can be no/less forcing -

The ENSO states do not "mean" automatically x-y-z just because they exist.  There has to be geo-physical circuitry, and what seems completely intuitive and obvious to say, ...that is connected in gradient ... seems to escape people in everyday practice.   

Summary: If the HC has engulfed(ing)(s) the termination latitude of the ENSO ... those state are disconnecting its ability to influence the westerlies -

I think we are seeing that ..I had this discussion with Ray last summer about the dwindling El Nino thing ... and we were wondering if the same holds true/observable in the La Nina's ... Interesting, we immediately have a winter that did that ...

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's like that scene on superman when he throws them into the glass pane and sends them into space. :lol:  That's what i want to do with those models. Maybe the Para too.

lol, Could have put a few more on there but needed another rocket stage...................:)

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I have a ranking for the models that I’m somewhat familiar with

 

tier 1- Euro

tier 2- Canadian, navy, href 

tier 3- ukmet, nam, srefs, rgem

tier 4- icon, kma, Jma, Brazilian metrogram, Australian, hrrr, rap

tier 5- deep thunder

tier 6- gfs, para

In my opinion all models tier 4 and worse are garbage and aren’t even worth looking at other than purely for entertainment. Tier 3 is ok, horrible models to use on their own but can be decent in niche situations (Nam is decent for picking up warm layers in marginal setups 24 hours out, ukmet can be decent with upper level pattern but not surface temps, ect). Tier 2 is when you start getting into respectable models that are worth blending more heavily into your forecast, though the forecaster should take their flaws into account and adjust for them. Eg Href is the best short range model, navy has an se bias but is great at sniffing out storm tracks in the medium range, ect). Tier 1 is the euro, which is the best model by far. It is the best model there is in the long range for sniffing out patterns and it isn’t close. It is also a great model in the medium and short range, right up until the storm is over your head. It does over amplify and slow the southern branch down too much at times in the medium range, so that has to be taken into account when making a forecast. For ensembles vs op when making this ranking I include the entire suite in the ranking, as the ensembles share similar characteristics to the OP. They are pretty much what you get if you take the OP run and run it 20+ times with minute changes to the upper air pattern each one. This makes ensembles more useful in the long range where minute upper air changes in the short term lead to massive changes in the long term. In the medium and short range, the higher resolution OP is better. 

In the long range (8+ days out) I like an 80% european 20% Canadian blend, in the medium range (3-7 days out) I like a 50% European/30% Canadian 20% Navy blend, and in the short range I like a 30% European/20% HREF/15% Canadian/15% Navy/20% a blend of Tier 3 models of choice depending on which model is best for the setup we are in. This short range blend definitely needs the most work as I have been noticing many of my short range forecasts are busting due to me picking the snowiest short range models and blending them. My long and medium range system has been decent, but the short range is more of a work in progress as I am realizing that when I give myself room to pick my weenie bias leads to me picking the snowiest models even when it isn’t justified.

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