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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Normal here is 60”. I’m at 55” . BN

 

Not to be nit-picky.....but I'd say 55" IS normal.  You can say it's less than average but 'average' and 'normal' are not the same thing.  Normal is typically identified as being within 1 SD. 

In other words, you are solidly in 'normal' territory for snowfall.

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3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

Not to be nit-picky.....but I'd say 55" IS normal.  You can say it's less than average but 'average' and 'normal' are not the same thing.  Normal is typically identified as being within 1 SD. 

In other words, you are solidly in 'normal' territory for snowfall.

Mind blown. 

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With the exception of 12/17, every single event underperformed here. That applied to even the smallest events, when the bar was set very low (eg, forecast 1-2” yielded zilch). We’re right at or slightly below our seasonal snow average, and have gotten there with one big early storm + a few pedestrian events. Temps have been remarkably stable/meh, and we haven’t gotten below zero. Pretty forgettable season overall, with the unfortunate exception of Grinch - which was meteorologically interesting but aesthetically devastating. I give it a C-minus.

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The difference between tomorrow's dawn through noon versus Tuesday's is nothing shy of appalling!!

my god -

+8 C at 850 in laze faire westerly air, under partly sunny tomorrow

-24 C at 850 in a cryo stung hell of 50 mph turbines on Tuesday

w                             t                                  f

Talkin a 32 veritable mixing depth swing

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8 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Not a good look for winter enthusiasts at the end of the EPS run:

850t_anom.na.png

 

Haven't seen any other guidance ..so taken fwiw/ above ..that's something I've been warning swoosh in March - those "apprehensive" ...if you wanna call 'em that ... have erstwhile benefited from the fact that the various chartage has seldom if at all very much resembled either the back ground climate argument ( not CC but La Nina -rooted ...) ...etc.. not gonna run down that again.  We'll see... 

I did just look briefly at the GFS... tries to destroy citrus crops again by sending bud-pusher weather up our way then collapsing into the teens way out there

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13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

10 days ago this 5 day period shown was supposed to look like today’s 10-15 shows, instead we end up with this. As Kevin says cold and dry. Add in some wind and it’s your typical March crap

E5583326-D831-4DAA-9708-28185F6F65DC.png

850s don't always tell the story, esp. with any mid-March partial or full sun. Anyway, I was more referring to the large continental +anomaly rather than locally.

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5 hours ago, PhineasC said:

This winter gets an A+ from me just because it blew away any other winter in my life.

Grinch was horrifying and nearly broke my brain. I was saved by the Jan 17 and Feb 1/2 storms. One of the worst weather events in my life, maybe tops. I never want to see “atmospheric river” and “warm sector” together in a GYX distro ever again.

The long boring periods where every storm went south of me (which is ongoing) has been rather annoying. @dendrite tried to warn me  

Retention after Grinch has been fabulous. I am in a great spot for that. The pack here has been like you’d see at a ski place.

Uplsope was also fun. No idea if I received more or less of that than usual. It seems pretty decoupled from the broader pattern so probably average there. It was the synoptic piece that was lacking, based on the historical record.

And before the usual suspects rage out at me that it can still snow 2 feet in mid April here... yeah I get that. LOL wake me up when the models show a real, strong low SE of my house with my temp at 28. So far all I still see is weak crap. Thank god for uplsope. 

Once you get a firm grasp of climo, it will be revised to a C- or so..

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