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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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I'll go solid A- on the winter. First, it shines especially bright against the backdrop of a 9" winter last year. I'm right around 50", which is a bit shy of double our average. We had a coating in October and the biggest December event in a long time, even though it was washed away a week later. January sucked, but at least it wasn't also cold. February was awesome, a full month of coverage. If we can pull one last gasp warning event, there's room to bump the grade up a little more.

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This winter gets an A+ from me just because it blew away any other winter in my life.

Grinch was horrifying and nearly broke my brain. I was saved by the Jan 17 and Feb 1/2 storms. One of the worst weather events in my life, maybe tops. I never want to see “atmospheric river” and “warm sector” together in a GYX distro ever again.

The long boring periods where every storm went south of me (which is ongoing) has been rather annoying. @dendrite tried to warn me  

Retention after Grinch has been fabulous. I am in a great spot for that. The pack here has been like you’d see at a ski place.

Uplsope was also fun. No idea if I received more or less of that than usual. It seems pretty decoupled from the broader pattern so probably average there. It was the synoptic piece that was lacking, based on the historical record.

And before the usual suspects rage out at me that it can still snow 2 feet in mid April here... yeah I get that. LOL wake me up when the models show a real, strong low SE of my house with my temp at 28. So far all I still see is weak crap. Thank god for uplsope. 

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I know things don’t look great for the storm threat next week, but based on the pattern in place I don’t believe the storm will end up getting squashed despite what the models show. In my opinion the low will keep moving west on the models due to how amplified the western ridge is as well as the strong northern stream that has nowhere to go but dig south in this highly amplified and slow flow being shown on the models.

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For me ... I find the notion of 'not grading until March is over',

vs

March looks unavoidably like a giant piece of shit across the spectrum of various charting and ensemble tooling ( telecon's ..etc..) combined

... as mutually exclusive realities.  It's interesting too - because while neither of those are disputable, quoting Newton, "Two truths can never contradict"   - yet being in this state of affairs apparently denies that conclusion.  Maybe from that we can infer that one of those lead premises must therefore be false.  ... 

My guess is that mood determines which ...?     Yeah, if "healthy realism" is in play, ... giant piece of shit wins... and the former don't grade 'till March is over folk can eat said shit.   If former turns/proves right, that invariably proves the 2nd premise of shitness wrong... 

Either way, it's almost like where "April is the cruelest month..."      March should be dubbed the giant asshole month.

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D for me.

4 inches of absolute fluff illusion was my best event. I watched an entire day of white rain, and there weren't really any really remarkable storms, just moisture.

Three pretty crap winters on the trot, even for here, which is close to the worst place in new England for snow.

The only thing not making it an f, like last winter, is the fact that the 3 inches of slush followed by colder temps gave us a surprisingly resilient pack that I was able to ski on locally, and my kid was able to sled on a bunch.

A week of real winter in an entire season.

Oh, and my sister got more snow than me this year. She lives in england for gods sake.

 

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5 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

D for me.

4 inches of absolute fluff illusion was my best event. I watched an entire day of white rain, and there weren't really any really remarkable storms, just moisture.

Three pretty crap winters on the trot, even for here, which is close to the worst place in new England for snow.

The only thing not making it an f, like last winter, is the fact that the 3 inches of slush followed by colder temps gave us a surprisingly resilient pack that I was able to ski on locally, and my kid was able to sled on a bunch.

A week of real winter in an entire season.

Oh, and my sister got more snow than me this year. She lives in england for gods sake.

 

What part of England got more snow than you?

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17 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Wrong thread earlier

 

Maybe yeah... 'cept , ha - 222 hours re a phenomenon that inherently is invisible if it is one of those, and has to sneak up as part of the the definition of what 'little critter that bites' means ( i.e., under-estimated) ... That advance notice torpedoes the invisibility requirement .. to mention, "little"?  - trying to survive the tyranny of 222 hours of fractal-flow mayhem in La Nina battling God's for supremacy of which gets to break the most hearts ... probably doesn't end well for said little critter actually being there at that time...

That said, yeah...in a vacuum that ignores all that ... it does look like that.  Anytime a piddling system has a single physical metric that is unusually powerful embedded side an a dizzying array of nuances ... it stands a chance of over producing.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Since we didn’t get normal snowfall you can’t give anything higher than C+ or B-. January blew dongs being snowless.. Xmas was ruined . We did have good pack most of Dec and all of Feb. We end and move onto other interests 

We got normal snowfall... just January sucked

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Maybe yeah... 'cept , ha - 222 hours re a phenomenon that inherently is invisible if it is one of those, and has to sneak up as part of the the definition of what 'little critter that bites' means ( i.e., under-estimated) ... That advance notice torpedoes the invisibility requirement .. to mention, "little"?  - trying to survive the tyranny of 222 hours of fractal-flow mayhem in La Nina battling God's for supremacy of which gets to break the most hearts ... probably doesn't end well for said little critter actually being there at that time...

That said, yeah...in a vacuum that ignores all that ... it does look like that.  Anytime a piddling system has a single physical metric that is unusually powerful embedded side an a dizzying array of nuances ... it stands a chance of over producing.

12z GFS...

F427EACD-B851-447A-B654-489A1ED95B9A.jpeg

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