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March 2021 Weather Discussion

CoastalWx

By CoastalWx,
in New England

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George001
George001

The reason why people who live in eastern mass shouldn’t give up on the storm threat next week is that despite the fact that the pattern favors a large offshore ocean storm, we are pretty much stickin

George001
George001

I disagree, at least for east coast storms the Canadian is one of the best OP models, up there with the Euro and Navy. The Gfs and Icon are the garbage models not worth looking at. 

George001
George001

I have a ranking for the models that I’m somewhat familiar with   tier 1- Euro tier 2- Canadian, navy, href  tier 3- ukmet, nam, srefs, rgem tier 4- icon, kma, Jma, Brazilian

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Winter Hill neighborhood, the house I had back in 95 near the Holden line was a good spot too.

Anything near the Holden line is going to be good....it's all 600-800+ feet there and NW side. That's where the snow retention is and where the icing events are more noticeable. Often night and day there vs like Webster Square or downtown.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Posted

Gorgeous day, probably down to 3/4 inches, bare areas on the hill side of the front and back lawn. North side is solid 6 plus. Amazing how much snow left in the north side protected valley down the street though. No sun exposure there. Probably solid 6 to 8.. My gardens, vegetable and plant.are snow free .I was out raking the top layer. Frost is about two inches down but we begin spring for today anyways. Looks pretty up and down with some real cold shots. I anticipate a snowstorm will pop up at some point before this month is out. There is a shit ton of snow and cold in Canada, a dip here or there and a bowling ball and off we go.

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Go Kart Mozart

Go Kart Mozart

Posted
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2 hours ago, George001 said:

Yeah I don’t know why this period is being written off. It’s a legitimate threat that is supported by the pattern, and it’s not like climo is super unfavorable either. It’s early March, which can and does produce winter weather as long as the pattern in place isn’t extremely hostile. 

I don't know George.  I would proceed with caution until we see the NOGAPS come aboard.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Gorgeous day, probably down to 3/4 inches, bare areas on the hill side of the front and back lawn. North side is solid 6 plus. Amazing how much snow left in the north side protected valley down the street though. No sun exposure there. Probably solid 6 to 8.. My gardens, vegetable and plant.are snow free .I was out raking the top layer. Frost is about two inches down but we begin spring for today anyways. Looks pretty up and down with some real cold shots. I anticipate a snowstorm will pop up at some point before this month is out. There is a shit ton of snow and cold in Canada, a dip here or there and a bowling ball and off we go.

South and North amazing difference. The sun is a powerful thing.

375CAFA8-D1D2-4534-AD32-F7E089E40A7B.jpeg

674B18AD-909F-4C8A-B029-5C8B8A9CCC8F.jpeg

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

My brother's house is at the base of a hill facing north and slopes south to north, he retains snow a lot longer than I do. He'll have a solid pack two weeks after my yard is almost all bare ground.

Very similar around here. My neighbor at the base of the hill looks like he did two weeks ago. His roof is still snow covered

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Ha, I’m not ready to go back to real life yet. 180 hr phase keeps me from worrying about the rent and bills ;). Plus next year I’m moving to Worcester from Philly so I’m all ready for next winter to get here

Oh, haha...yeah... you should probably do a lot better in Worcester than Philly -

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George001

George001

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When looking at the eps for the March 5th-10 timeframe, there is a huge ridge right over Montana, and a piece of the polar vortex in eastern Canada. Based on how amplified and far west that ridge is on the EPS mean as well as the location of the polar vortex at hour 168, I believe that the overall flow will be slow and amplified, increasing the ceiling of the storm. A big one with 2ft+ is absolutely in the cards and has a higher probability than normal based on the pattern in place. The flow on the models is NOT fast like it has been the past few years, and the pac is the best since 2018 during that window. The models do break it down and revert to a fast flow look afterwards with the polar vortex in the North Pole, which would mean the end of winter. However, I made the mistake of cancelling winter 10 days ago when I saw the models had that look for early March, and it turned out to be wrong. I’m not going to make that same mistake again, based on what I have seen in regards to the tropical forcing (MJO), it looks to enter the more favorable phases for western North America ridging, which in turn buckles and slows down the flow, giving the northern stream more room to dig and phase with the southern stream. On some of the more recent model runs the MJO looks to linger in the more favorable phases, which could extend the favorable window for possibly 2 or even 3 more weeks if it cooperates. Im not going to go back and start calling for March 18 just yet though, as be fair the tropical forcing so far this year hasn’t favored a good pacific pattern, so I’m going to be cautious about forecasting a great period after the first week of March. If the MJO does cooperate though, watch out, this March could all of a sudden go from looking like a blowtorch with a PV over the North Pole from weeks 2-4 to very interesting. 
even if the MJO doesn’t pan out, I could see a scenario where we do get a warm March but with the storm threat at the beginning of the month and maybe one or two more windows with pieces of the Polar Vortex rotating through. That isn’t March 2018 but it’s not March 2012 either, its more in the middle, and in New England an a medicore to even a slightly below average pattern can still produce. 

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh, haha...yeah... you should probably do a lot better in Worcester than Philly -

Just a little bit lol....Although, with me being up there next year I fully expect to see Philly get 100". Heck, maybe Ill even get to chase another event this year if the 180 hour phase happens ;)

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Fozz said:

Time to close the curtains on winter. Tip is right.

 

 

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Interesting gfs run. 

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Getting a bit blocky up in Canada. Things can happen when that occurs. 

I had a feeling the models would improve as soon as I canceled winter. Let's hope I'm not speaking too soon...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

I think I see what’s happening. 
 

the Euro paints the way on seasonal change on that 12z run. Not so much in the sense of wave spacing so much but the thermal profile up N across the breadth of the Canadian Shield substantially normalizes between D6 and 10 while going AN S of the border by the end of the run 

I suspect these buckling complexions are doin so because the gradient is relaxing. I mean it’s bowling season .. shortening wave lengths. 
 

it may also be partly why the western ridge /PNA are rising ... interesting. Chances may increase for slower moving marginal QPF loaded systems for a week or two. Who knows after but still waiting for L Nina spring to show up. 

this buckling showing up all at once though smacks more like recent years tho - recurring theme post velocity soaked hemispheres to do this in springs ... transition. didn’t end to well for early warm /spring enthusiasts. It’ll be interesting to see where this goes.  
 

 

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George001

George001

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Posted

Not far from an eastern New England blizzard, all it would take is the northern stream to dive in a bit earlier. That’s not a weak low either despite the late phase. If we can get an earlier phase not only would the low be farther west, the strength of the low would increase as well. A low in the 970s or even 960s isn’t out of the question in a pattern like this.

image.png

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
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43 minutes ago, George001 said:

Not far from an eastern New England blizzard, all it would take is the northern stream to dive in a bit earlier. That’s not a weak low either despite the late phase. If we can get an earlier phase not only would the low be farther west, the strength of the low would increase as well. A low in the 970s or even 960s isn’t out of the question in a pattern like this.

image.png

Big SOI drop is a precursor to a major storm.

Ensembles continuing to show a sharp PNA ridge and subsequent coastal with partial phasing (for now). 

Noted dips in the AO/NAO around March 5-7 timeframe too. I know it's early but I think we'll see a whopper Miller A snowstorm or blizzard for the northeast. 

Models/ensembles are already signaling this over a week out, which is usually a really good sign for an upcoming major storm. 

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George001

George001

Posted
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26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Big SOI drop is a precursor to a major storm.

Ensembles continuing to show a sharp PNA ridge and subsequent coastal with partial phasing (for now). 

Noted dips in the AO/NAO around March 5-7 timeframe too. I know it's early but I think we'll see a whopper Miller A snowstorm or blizzard for the northeast. 

Models/ensembles are already signaling this over a week out, which is usually a really good sign for an upcoming major storm. 

When I look at the setup for this storm I’m thinking a possible March 13th 2018 redux (2 feet of snow, 30 inches in jackpot areas) that was also a later phase that was originally modeled to be out to sea until a couple days before the storm, when the models started bringing the low farther west. When it comes to miller As, in eastern mass my worry is low tracking to far west and bringing rain. However, I don’t see that on the models with the placement of the ridge favoring a more offshore vs inland track of the low. The models have the ridge over Montana, which is great to have if you are looking for east coast cyclogenesis. In my opinion jackpot amounts could exceed 30 inches if things come together. This is the type of pattern that produced March 13th 2018, Jan 4th 2018, Dec 26th 2010, Feb 14th 2015 storms.

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