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March 2021


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44 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I believe it was postponed due to the severe weather outbreak earlier in the week. Someone correct me if I am wrong. 

Thanks... ad just saw this on-line.

Monday:  Effective March 22, 2021 . Updated to reflect delay in implementation date to Monday, March 22 due to Critical Weather Day. Effective on or about March 22, 2021, beginning with the 1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) cycle of the Global Forecast 

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Morning thoughts...

The low temperature at Central Park was 33° this morning. As a result, yesterday’s 31° figure was likely New York City’s last freeze of 2020-21, based both on the latest ensemble guidance and diminishing frequency of April freezes.

Under bright sunshine, today will feature a springlike afternoon. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 57°

Newark: 59°

Philadelphia: 59°

Tomorrow will be continued fair and mild.

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Am working now, 2-3 days/week. Fewer posts.  I will not be on top of isolated svr events. Something like what might occur (broad synoptic scale) Friday, I'll try to thread once it looks a little more certain.  However, if others are more confident...go for it. Thanks. Was a good winter.  If any modeling surprise, it wasn't the advance notice, it was the total failure of March 19 MA southward.  I suppose someone could say that ensemble chance of 1" were only 70-75% in MA to the far nw side of our forum, meaning there was almost a 30% of a non 1" event (verified), it still is very seldom that events are total busts (no accumulation).  So the surprise on the large scale events are very very few, and this one was on the downside (for me).  

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If this year has no measurable snow in March but a little in April it would be only the third time that has happened in NYC...I think there is only two winters that had a great February with major storms with no measurable snow in March but measurable snow in April...1894 and 1921...

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30 minutes ago, uncle W said:

If this year has no measurable snow in March but a little in April it would be only the third time that has happened in NYC...I think there is only two winters that had a great February with major storms with no measurable snow in March but measurable snow in April...1894 and 1921...

Newark is on track for its earliest last measurable snowfall following a 45”+ season. So you can see how extreme that AO reversal was back in mid-February. With the exception of 14-15, our snowfall has been very AO dependent. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
Last Measurable  
1 1996-04-30 78.4 4-10
2 1961-04-30 73.5 3-31
3 2011-04-30 68.2 3-21
4 1978-04-30 64.9 3-16
5 1994-04-30 64.5 3-18
6 2014-04-30 61.1 4-16
7 1958-04-30 58.3 3-21
8 1967-04-30 57.3 3-22
9 2003-04-30 53.1 4-7
10 1948-04-30 51.0 3-11
11 2010-04-30 47.9 2-26
12 2004-04-30 47.8 3-19
13 2015-04-30 46.4 3-21
14 2021-04-30 45.7 2-22

 

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Newark is on track for its earliest last measurable snowfall following a 45”+ season. So you can see how extreme that AO reversal was back in mid-February. With the exception of 14-15, our snowfall has been very AO dependent. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
Last Measurable  
1 1996-04-30 78.4 4-10
2 1961-04-30 73.5 3-31
3 2011-04-30 68.2 3-21
4 1978-04-30 64.9 3-16
5 1994-04-30 64.5 3-18
6 2014-04-30 61.1 4-16
7 1958-04-30 58.3 3-21
8 1967-04-30 57.3 3-22
9 2003-04-30 53.1 4-7
10 1948-04-30 51.0 3-11
11 2010-04-30 47.9 2-26
12 2004-04-30 47.8 3-19
13 2015-04-30 46.4 3-21
14 2021-04-30 45.7 2-22

 

this year was 2007-08 on steriods...

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

23* this morning. Probably get a few more freezes out here. In the city now to get my second vaccine shot. Nice day to walk around with the kids

Good luck with your shot. My brother is taking his wife for her 2nd shot this morning at Javits as well. 

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8 hours ago, uncle W said:

If this year has no measurable snow in March but a little in April it would be only the third time that has happened in NYC...I think there is only two winters that had a great February with major storms with no measurable snow in March but measurable snow in April...1894 and 1921...

The truth is without the mid season / well timed SSW it'd likely have been a big bust. 

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A sustained period of above to much above normal temperatures is now developing. Tomorrow will again be fair and mild. In general, above normal temperatures will persist through the end of March.

There is potential for near record to record warm conditions to occur in eastern Canada on Monday and Tuesday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around March 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +5.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.469 today.

The 31° temperature recorded at Central Park on March 19 could be New York City's last freeze of 2020-21 based on a combination of the latest ensemble guidance and the diminishing frequency of April freezes.

April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018.

Select April Statistics:

1951-80: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.1
1961-90: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.3
1971-00: Years with freezes: 16; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.2
1981-10: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0
1991-20: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0

Least years with freezes: 10, 1984-2013

Most years with freezes: 26, 1874-1903, 1880-1909, 1895-1924, 1896-1925, and 1897-1926

Lowest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 0.8, 1983-2012, 1984-2013, 1985-2014, and 1986-2015

Highest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 3.7, 1871-1900 and 1872-1901

Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 0, Most Recent: 2020

Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 11, Most Recent: 1874   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.4° (1.9° above normal).

 

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On 3/18/2021 at 8:08 AM, donsutherland1 said:

It’s too soon for me to make any calls about snowfall for April. I do think this will be the last chance for snowfall in March given the forecast pattern and strong consensus on the guidance about warmer conditions for the remainder of the month beginning Sunday. 

I'm wondering if we will follow the script of 2009-10 since that is another winter we've been mimicking.  ENSO doesn't seem to matter for our extremely hot summers and this mild/dry spring pattern is very reminiscent as a lead up to some of our hottest summers.

 

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7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A sustained period of above to much above normal temperatures is now developing. Tomorrow will again be fair and mild. In general, above normal temperatures will persist through the end of March.

There is potential for near record to record warm conditions to occur in eastern Canada on Monday and Tuesday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around March 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +5.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.469 today.

The 31° temperature recorded at Central Park on March 19 could be New York City's last freeze of 2020-21 based on a combination of the latest ensemble guidance and the diminishing frequency of April freezes.

April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018.

Select April Statistics:

1951-80: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.1
1961-90: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.3
1971-00: Years with freezes: 16; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.2
1981-10: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0
1991-20: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0

Least years with freezes: 10, 1984-2013

Most years with freezes: 26, 1874-1903, 1880-1909, 1895-1924, 1896-1925, and 1897-1926

Lowest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 0.8, 1983-2012, 1984-2013, 1985-2014, and 1986-2015

Highest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 3.7, 1871-1900 and 1872-1901

Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 0, Most Recent: 2020

Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 11, Most Recent: 1874   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.4° (1.9° above normal).

 

Surprised that we didn't have a late freeze last year when we had snow in May lol.

 

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