doncat Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Greetings...Last two days high temps here were 73° yesterday, which was a station record and 69° today. Humidity got down to 17% this afternoon and 24% currently, which is pretty unusual for this hour around these parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Doesn’t seem as windy as predicted, or is it still a little early for the strongest winds? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 4 hours ago, weathermedic said: Doesn’t seem as windy as predicted, or is it still a little early for the strongest winds? Its Windy. The thud I heard in my backyard a short time ago was the cupola that blew off my garage roof crashing to the ground. The whole house shook on that gust and then the thud. Oh yeah, its windy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 13, 2021 Author Share Posted March 13, 2021 A few reports of max wind gusts 40KT or greater between roughly 2A-450A March 13, 2021 Haven't seen any LSR's yet but am sure there will be a few. My max gust in Wantage NJ was 37 KT (43 MPH). Also appended recent Mesonet graphics from NYS and NJ. KBAF: Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KBDL: Windsor Locks, Bradley Intl Arpt, CT, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KBED: Bedford, Hanscom Field, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KCEF: Chicopee Falls / Westover AFB, MA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KEWB: New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KEWR: Newark, Newark Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KFIT: Fitchburg, Fitchburg Municipal Airport, MA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KFOK: Westhampton Beach, NY, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KGON: Groton/New London, CT, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KHPN: White Plains, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KHWV: Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KLGA: New York, La Guardia Airport, NY, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KMPO: Mount Pocono, PA, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KMQE: East Milton, MA, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KORH: Worcester, Worcester Regional Airport, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KPSF: Pittsfield, Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPVD: Providence, RI, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KPYM: Plymouth, MA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KSWF: Newburgh / Stewart, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KTAN: Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 12 hours ago, CIK62 said: Notice coastal areas stayed out of the ocean air today. My highs here were 64,51,60,(68 today} ) ..."thats correct sir".. was down @ the ocean yesterday around 3pm..car temp was 63*..wind was west.. very mild in westhampton dunes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 And I may say that the early look the models are giving paint a not-so-pretty-picture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 41degs.(33/49), or -3.0. The GFS back to No Snow. Another 70+ outbreak around the 24th. EURO has 3" between 16th---19th. CMC has 6" on the 19th and lowest T's overall. 34*(35%RH) here at 6am. 33* at 6:30am. (was 53* back at midnight!) 35* by 9am. 40* by Noon. 47* by 3pm. 49* by 4pm. 50* by 5pm. 43* by 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Morning thoughts... Overnight, cooler air began pushing into the region on gusty winds. Nevertheless, New York City’s Central Park set a record high minimum temperature for March 12 with a low temperature of 52°. That beat the previous record of 50°, which had been set way back in 1898. Today will be fair, windy and noticeably cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 49° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 52° Tomorrow will be a seasonably cool day. The March 16-19 period could offer a period of opportunity for a light snow event in parts of the region. Out west, a major to perhaps historic snowstorm will get underway and continue through late tomorrow night or early Monday. Denver will likely experience an 8”-16” snowfall. Cheyenne remains on track to pick up 20”-30” of snow. March Snowfall Records: Daily: 15.9”, March 18, 2003; 2-Day: 17.2”, March 17-18, 2003; 3-Day: 18.9”, March 5-7, 1990 All-Time Snowfall Records: Daily: 19.8”, November 20, 1979; 2-Day: 25.2”, November 20-21, 1979; 3-Day: 25.6”, November 19-21, 1979 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 000 NOUS41 KOKX 131147 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-132335- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 647 AM EST SAT MAR 13 2021 ...HIGHEST WIND GUST REPORTS... LOCATION SPEED TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...CONNECTICUT... ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 43 MPH 1249 AM 03/13 ASOS BRIDGEPORT 43 MPH 0115 AM 03/13 CWOP ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... CHESTER AIRPORT 40 MPH 0515 AM 03/13 AWOS ...NEW HAVEN COUNTY... STONY CREEK 51 MPH 1255 AM 03/13 CWOP LIGHTHOUSE POINT 45 MPH 1154 PM 03/12 WXFLOW WATERBURY AIRPORT 41 MPH 1106 PM 03/12 AWOS HAMMONASSET 41 MPH 1154 PM 03/12 WXFLOW ...NEW LONDON COUNTY... GROTON AIRPORT 49 MPH 0255 AM 03/13 ASOS ...NEW JERSEY... ...BERGEN COUNTY... FAIR LAWN 41 MPH 1254 AM 03/13 CWOP TETERBORO AIRPORT 41 MPH 0154 AM 03/13 ASOS ...HUDSON COUNTY... BAYONNE 43 MPH 0345 AM 03/13 WXFLOW ...UNION COUNTY... NEWARK AIRPORT 53 MPH 1249 AM 03/13 ASOS LINDEN AIRPORT 43 MPH 0215 AM 03/13 AWOS ...NEW YORK... ...KINGS COUNTY... BROOKLYN COLLEGE 49 MPH 0105 AM 03/13 NYSM SHEEPSHEAD BAY 41 MPH 0145 AM 03/13 CWOP ...NASSAU COUNTY... BAYVILLE 52 MPH 0121 AM 03/13 WXFLOW WANTAGH 44 MPH 0110 AM 03/13 NYSM ...NEW YORK COUNTY... MIDTOWN MANHATTAN 50 MPH 0245 AM 03/13 NYSM ...ORANGE COUNTY... STEWART AIRPORT 47 MPH 1245 AM 03/13 AWOS VAILS GATE 44 MPH 1211 AM 03/13 CWOP NEWBURGH 43 MPH 1031 PM 03/12 CWOP WARWICK 41 MPH 1215 AM 03/13 NYSM MONTGOMERY AIRPORT 40 MPH 0116 AM 03/13 AWOS ...PUTNAM COUNTY... BREWSTER 49 MPH 1145 PM 03/12 NYSM ...QUEENS COUNTY... NYC/LA GUARDIA 54 MPH 0110 AM 03/13 ASOS NYC/JFK AIRPORT 54 MPH 0245 AM 03/13 ASOS KEW GARDEN HILLS 48 MPH 0120 AM 03/13 NYSM JACKSON HEIGHTS 46 MPH 0243 AM 03/13 CWOP NYC/JFK 41 MPH 0246 AM 03/13 ASOS ...RICHMOND COUNTY... COLLEGE OF STATEN ISLAND 43 MPH 0115 AM 03/13 NYSM ...ROCKLAND COUNTY... SUFFERN 50 MPH 0230 AM 03/13 NYSM ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... EATONS NECK 61 MPH 1235 AM 03/13 WXFLOW WESTHAMPTON AIRPORT 55 MPH 1226 AM 03/13 ASOS GREAT GULL ISLAND 52 MPH 0318 AM 03/13 WXFLOW SOUTHOLD 50 MPH 0423 AM 03/13 CWOP NAPEAGUE 49 MPH 0359 AM 03/13 WXFLOW SOUTHOLD 47 MPH 0340 AM 03/13 NYSM SHIRLEY AIRPORT 46 MPH 0202 AM 03/13 ASOS RIDGE 45 MPH 1245 AM 03/13 CWOP WEST GILGO BEACH 45 MPH 0338 AM 03/13 CWOP MECOX BAY 45 MPH 0419 AM 03/13 WXFLOW ISLIP AIRPORT 44 MPH 0237 AM 03/13 ASOS FARMINGDALE AIRPORT 41 MPH 0155 AM 03/13 ASOS GREAT SOUTH BAY 41 MPH 0226 AM 03/13 WXFLOW FISHERS ISLAND AIRPORT 40 MPH 0442 AM 03/13 WXFLOW ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... WHITE PLAINS AIRPORT 47 MPH 0142 AM 03/13 ASOS TAPPAN ZEE LIGHT 14 45 MPH 0233 AM 03/13 WXFLOW PEEKSKILL 44 MPH 0158 AM 03/13 CWOP CROTON 43 MPH 0218 AM 03/13 WXFLOW SOMERS 40 MPH 1140 PM 03/12 NYSM ...CONNECTICUT... ...MARITIME STATIONS... USCG ACADEMY 52 MPH 0346 AM 03/13 WXFLOW 1 ESE NORWALK 48 MPH 0118 AM 03/13 WXFLOW STONGINGTON OUTER BREAKWATER 46 MPH 0349 AM 03/13 WXFLOW 2 SSE NEW HAVEN 45 MPH 1212 AM 03/13 NOS-PORTS ...NEW YORK... LARCHMONT HARBOR 48 MPH 0311 AM 03/13 WXFLOW FIRE ISLAND CG 48 MPH 0206 AM 03/13 WXFLOW ROBBINS REEF, NJ 47 MPH 0312 AM 03/13 NOS-PORTS SHINNECOCK 45 MPH 1219 AM 03/13 WXFLOW POINT O WOODS YC 44 MPH 0130 AM 03/13 WXFLOW CITY ISLAND 41 MPH 0216 AM 03/13 CWOP && 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 The low humidity season has arrived right on time. We typically see the driest conditions of the year around March. The 13% reading at Newark was the lowest of the year so far. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=157&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&year=2018&var=min_rh&dir=above&thres=95&dpi=100&_fmt=png Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 70 18 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Good day to hang out the laundry 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Keeping abreast of the developing situation for today’s event in Texas. First moderate risk of the season and a decent parameter space to back it up. We will see what happens later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said: Keeping abreast of the developing situation for today’s event in Texas. First moderate risk of the season and a decent parameter space to back it up. We will see what happens later. is there a place people use to find who is stormchasing something like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 16 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: is there a place people use to find who is stormchasing something like this? Twitter, mostly, where some chasers will post their streams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 17 hours ago, CIK62 said: Notice coastal areas stayed out of the ocean air today. My highs here were 64,51,60,(68 today} ) I was just studying this map. If I'm reading it correctly , the 2m temps just few miles SW of that 63 in the Hamptons was in the low-mid 40s, colder than anyplace else on the map. Any reason to think that wouldn't be accurate, or any reason what would cause temps to be notably lower in that area? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 It looks like brush fire season is getting into full swing. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of NJ, E.PA and Del. from tomorrow morning thru Monday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 7 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said: Keeping abreast of the developing situation for today’s event in Texas. First moderate risk of the season and a decent parameter space to back it up. We will see what happens later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 WIND ALERT. 50MPH GUSTs FROM THE NW. PEAKS ABOUT THIS TIME TOMORROW. There could be a repeat of this on Friday, but with SW gusts instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose to 50° in New York City. After the last few days of much above normal temperatures, the New York Botanical Garden’s Japanese Apricot trees have burst into bloom. Crocuses are out in abundance. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 A -10 dewpoint on Monday would be near the record lowest for mid-March. KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 3/13/2021 1200 UTC DT /MAR 13/MAR 14 /MAR 15 /MAR 16 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 33 55 22 40 26 TMP 47 48 43 40 38 36 36 44 52 51 43 34 28 24 23 31 38 39 32 29 28 DPT 8 9 14 19 21 21 22 21 17 12 9 6 4 2 -1 -6-10-10 -6 7 11 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 Cooler weather moved back into the region overnight. Tomorrow will be partly sunny, windy, and seasonably cool. A strong cold front will move across the region bringing some clouds. There could be an isolated sprinkle. Monday will be the coldest day of the week and possibly the coldest day until at least late next fall. Since 1990, 73% of cases that saw a high temperature of 70° or above during March 1-15 were followed by a low temperature of 32° or below during the following two weeks. 54% of such cases saw a low temperature below 30° during the following two weeks and 27% saw the temperature fall below 25°. The mean lowest temperature during the following two weeks was 29°. Monday's fairly strong cold shot is consistent with recent historical experience. In addition, the March 16-19 period could offer a period of opportunity for a light snow event in parts of the region. Next weekend could mark the start of a new warming trend. Since 1950, nearly 60% of days two weeks after the AO reached +3.000 or above in the March 1-15 period were warmer than when the AO reached +3.000 or above. The AO reached +3.000 on March 10. The mean increase was 2.8°. This suggests that it is more likely than not that the closing week of March could see a return to warmer conditions. Out west, a major to perhaps historic snowstorm will continue into late tomorrow or early Monday. Denver, Cheyenne, and possibly Casper, as well as the Nebraska Panhandle, will likely see heavy snowfall. Denver will likely pick up 8"-16" of snow. Cheyenne will likely see 20"-30" of snow. That would set a new March record and could challenge that Cheyenne's all-time record snowstorm amount. Cheyenne's March Snowfall Records: Daily: 15.9”, March 18, 2003; 2-Day: 17.2”, March 17-18, 2003; 3-Day: 18.9”, March 5-7, 1990 Cheyenne's All-Time Snowfall Records: Daily: 19.8”, November 20, 1979; 2-Day: 25.2”, November 20-21, 1979; 3-Day: 25.6”, November 19-21, 1979 The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March. Afterward, neutral-cool ENSO conditions will likely develop as the spring progresses. The SOI was -11.68 today. The SOI had recently been negative for 10 consecutive days. That development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.329 today. On March 12 MJO data was not available. The March 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.297 (RMM). The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow. Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.9° (0.4° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 Webcam from Wyoming https://youtu.be/vbA0uy8AsLE Enjoy 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: i really like this one! and it has a little bit of a "default Windows desktop photo" vibe to it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 On 3/12/2021 at 5:52 PM, bluewave said: The droughts between 1995 and 2002 were impressive. That was the last time that NYC had water restrictions. 2010 wasn’t as dry. All our droughts since 2003 have been shorter and less severe than those years. 1966 was in a class by itself. It’s estimated that the drought in the 1960s was the worst in 300 to 400 years. wow 1966 really dropped off the cliff.....was that graph compiled using tree ring data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 On 3/12/2021 at 10:01 PM, doncat said: Greetings...Last two days high temps here were 73° yesterday, which was a station record and 69° today. Humidity got down to 17% this afternoon and 24% currently, which is pretty unusual for this hour around these parts. Do you have any low humidity records for your station? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 17 hours ago, bluewave said: The low humidity season has arrived right on time. We typically see the driest conditions of the year around March. The 13% reading at Newark was the lowest of the year so far. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=157&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&year=2018&var=min_rh&dir=above&thres=95&dpi=100&_fmt=png Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 70 18 13 JFK must have been really low too, especially when they hit 70. Funny, I thought October had the driest air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: i really like this one! and it has a little bit of a "default Windows desktop photo" vibe to it. all gorgeous- my favorite is the one with the blue sky background Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 14, 2021 Author Share Posted March 14, 2021 May be worthy to keep an eye on Friday the 19th. Seems as if n and w suburbs might get some accumulation but model uncertainty (outside the wet 1/2" qpf of both 00z/14 GEFS/EPS) continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 41degs.,(33/49), or about -3 0. Just a Trace of Snow showing on the CMC/EURO. Strong nw. winds this PM and evening. 42*(37%RH) at 7am.[DST]. 46* by 10am. 51* by 1pm. 52* by 4pm. 46* by 5pm. 41* by 6pm. 33* by 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 Wind gusts may beat expectations with the Arctic front this afternoon. Temperatures rise into the 50s with low dewpoints and steep lapse rates to near 750mb. So there could be some gusts over 50 mph with the MOS temperatures warmer than the raw soundings. KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 3/14/2021 0600 UTC DT /MAR 14 /MAR 15 /MAR 16 / HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 X/N 57 18 39 24 42 TMP 39 49 54 52 43 33 25 20 19 29 36 38 33 29 28 26 26 35 40 40 35 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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