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March 2021


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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s funny how April has been snowier than March when February had 20”+ since our snowfall increase in 2003.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2010 32.9 T 0.0 32.9
2021 30.6 T M 30.6
2014 30.3 0.2 0.4 30.9
2003 29.9 3.3 4.4 37.6
2006 21.5 1.2 1.3 24.0

Now you know why I like April more than March lol.

You expect it in March and when it doesn't live up to expectations it leaves a sour taste.

In April it's a nice surprise to get it so when it happens it makes you remember it- especially since we all know it will be the last snow of the season.

 

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41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Now you know why I like April more than March lol.

You expect it in March and when it doesn't live up to expectations it leaves a sour taste.

In April it's a nice surprise to get it so when it happens it makes you remember it- especially since we all know it will be the last snow of the season.

 

Unless it snows in May like last year. 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Now you know why I like April more than March lol.

You expect it in March and when it doesn't live up to expectations it leaves a sour taste.

In April it's a nice surprise to get it so when it happens it makes you remember it- especially since we all know it will be the last snow of the season.

 

The “last hurrah” pattern that can give a late snow event can come back in April in those years while in a snowy Feb, the pattern warms up in March and shuts down the snow which might be what’s happening now. 

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Hope everyone gets out to enjoy this glorious week of weather coming up. Looks amazing, we finally hit the 60’s! It’s a beautiful, wonderful thing! I’ll be out practicing the bag pipes and doing Irish square dances in the warm weather :-) Gotta get ready for St. Paddy’s next week!

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This will be only the 6th time since 1991 that NYC had to wait until March for the first 60°+ day of the year. But it’s the first time following a warmer than average winter. So you can see how rare the winter south based blocking pattern was.

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
DJF AVG Temp    
2015 03-26 (2015) 62 31.4    
2003 03-16 (2003) 68 31.2    
2014 03-11 (2014) 66 32.9    
2010 03-08 (2010) 61 33.8    
2004 03-01 (2004) 63 32.4    

2021................................................36.1

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9 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i wan't a cold spring who wants a warm spring and a hot summer not me!

I still don't quite understand why anyone would want a hot summer. For what purpose? A normal summer with low to mid 80's as highs and low 60's in the early am, I live in the HV and that's the norms, is perfect weather, why do people covet 90's?

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8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I still don't quite understand why anyone would want a hot summer. For what purpose? A normal summer with low to mid 80's as highs and low 60's in the early am, I live in the HV and that's the norms, is perfect weather, why do people covet 90's?

I love it man my favorite time of the summer is the first three weeks of July. Although the last 3-4 years have been rough once August rolls around with those terrible dews. 

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The temperature rose into the 40s across much of the region today. Not too far south in Baltimore and Washington, the temperature rose into the 50s. Tomorrow, that warmth will surge northward with much of the region seeing the temperature top out in the 50s with some 60s possible.

Wednesday could be a few degrees cooler and then the warmest air of the season will arrive for Thursday and Friday. The 60° isotherm will likely extend into southern and perhaps even central New England during the height of the warmth. Central Park will very likely see its first 60° reading since December 25 and likely its highest temperatures since late November.

Toward the latter part of the week, near or just after mid-month, temperatures could begin to cool as the AO falls sharply from its forecast peak. However, just as was the case during the historic February arctic outbreak, the core of the cold will likely remain west of the region on account of a fairly expansive western Atlantic ridge.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March. Afterward, neutral-cool ENSO conditions will likely develop as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -4.12 today. The SOI has now been negative for nine consecutive days. The last time that occurred was March 16-31, 2020 when the SOI was negative for 16 consecutive days. This development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.206 today. Over the next few days, the AO is forecast to rise sharply. The ensembles suggest that the AO could peak at or above +5.000. This would be a rare event in March. Since 1950, only March 7-8, 2015 saw the AO at or above +5.000. The March record is +5.588, which was set on March 8, 2015.

On March 7 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.764 (RMM). The March 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.713 (RMM).

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.0° (0.5° above normal).

 

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4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The temperature rose into the 40s across much of the region today. Not too far south in Baltimore and Washington, the temperature rose into the 50s. Tomorrow, that warmth will surge northward with much of the region seeing the temperature top out in the 50s with some 60s possible.

Wednesday could be a few degrees cooler and then the warmest air of the season will arrive for Thursday and Friday. The 60° isotherm will likely extend into southern and perhaps even central New England during the height of the warmth. Central Park will very likely see its first 60° reading since December 25 and likely its highest temperatures since late November.

Toward the latter part of the week, near or just after mid-month, temperatures could begin to cool as the AO falls sharply from its forecast peak. However, just as was the case during the historic February arctic outbreak, the core of the cold will likely remain west of the region on account of a fairly expansive western Atlantic ridge.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March. Afterward, neutral-cool ENSO conditions will likely develop as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -4.12 today. The SOI has now been negative for nine consecutive days. The last time that occurred was March 16-31, 2020 when the SOI was negative for 16 consecutive days. This development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.206 today. Over the next few days, the AO is forecast to rise sharply. The ensembles suggest that the AO could peak at or above +5.000. This would be a rare event in March. Since 1950, only March 7-8, 2015 saw the AO at or above +5.000. The March record is +5.588, which was set on March 8, 2015.

On March 7 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.764 (RMM). The March 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.713 (RMM).

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.0° (0.5° above normal).

 

Any indication on if the cold out west could end up as significant as it was last month, relatively speaking, or is it looking more seasonably cooler?

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6 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Any indication on if the cold out west could end up as significant as it was last month, relatively speaking, or is it looking more seasonably cooler?

No. This air mass is cold but nothing like the February one relative to normal (standard deviations from normal).

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