Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Spring 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion


madwx
 Share

Recommended Posts

38 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Does anyone know what the highest percentage recorded is for at least some level of drought in the lower 48?  This is not a good way to enter summer with that much D0 and higher on the map.

The Drought Monitor has been around since 2000.  Since then, the record high is in July 2012.  At one point, 80% of the US was in D0+ with about 64% in D1+

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Outside of the midweek potential, definitely has the warm and dry look in the extended. Making 2012 comparisons is laughable. 

To the extent that 2012 was a generational event and comparing any year to it is like comparing any tornado outbreak to 4/27/11, absolutely. I should say the ingredients are similar to those in 2012 (though maybe on a cursory level) but that absolutely doesn’t mean the entire Midwest is going to have triple digit heat for weeks on end in July, and the mere idea of being definitively able to say in April that it will or won’t happen is, indeed, laughable. I’ll save the 2012 comparisons for if and when it actually shows up on the models.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

To the extent that 2012 was a generational event and comparing any year to it is like comparing any tornado outbreak to 4/27/11, absolutely. I should say the ingredients are similar to those in 2012 (though maybe on a cursory level) but that absolutely doesn’t mean the entire Midwest is going to have triple digit heat for weeks on end in July, and the mere idea of being definitively able to say in April that it will or won’t happen is, indeed, laughable. I’ll save the 2012 comparisons for if and when it actually shows up on the models.

If we are going to start making comparisons to decade defining events, that is probably a good policy. A lot of things need to fall right (or wrong depending on your opinion) to get something like that again. 

Now, out west on the other hand :yikes:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Elaborate, please.

Studies have shown that F2 and above tornadoes are 15 times more likely when the MJO is in phase 8, 1 and 2. As the MJO moves through 8 into 1, it usually correlates with a collapse of the Pacific jet and creating a semi stationary long wave trough near the four corners, which in turn allows short waves to eject into tornado alley. Dr. Gensini at NIU has written about it and I was able to attend a workshop where he used May 19-30, 2019 as a prime example (map below). He is researching it for use as a tool in sub seasonal forecasting. If it plays out like it did in '19, a lot of outlooks of an active mid- and late severe season will verify. The GEFS forecasts this scenario from days 9-14 before going zonal (day 10 below.)

may-tornadoes-17-30-ver5-1024x787.jpg

250mb.gif

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

If we are going to start making comparisons to decade defining events, that is probably a good policy. A lot of things need to fall right (or wrong depending on your opinion) to get something like that again. 

Now, out west on the other hand :yikes:

Oh believe me, “wrong” is my opinion. I’m hoping there’s never a repeat of 2012 and would almost argue that rooting for it is sociopathic.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I should say the ingredients are similar to those in 2012 (though maybe on a cursory level) but that absolutely doesn’t mean the entire Midwest is going to have triple digit heat for weeks on end in July, and the mere idea of being definitively able to say in April that it will or won’t happen is, indeed, laughable. I’ll save the 2012 comparisons for if and when it actually shows up on the models.

The drought out west, which is currently more significant than it was at the same time in late April 2012, is really the only thing comparable at this point. So that’s not much to go off of.


.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Yeah, shot from the hip a bit this morning without really digging too much into the guidance before I had to be in court. Sim precip maps really don't give a great idea in terms of actual QPF with wider intervals between frames. 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

With the dryness we have had so far and everything weakening as it gets closer in I fully expect these totals to be high.  Riding seasonal trends until they fail.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

After another cool day today, models show nothing but 60s, 70s, and 80s into next week.

The midweek system is dying for Iowa and other northern areas.  In one way that's a bummer because some decent rain would be nice, but having the system sweep through much more quickly than it appeared a few days ago will allow more warmth to quickly move back in from the plains.  I've had enough of the 40s and 50s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...