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Spring 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion


madwx
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3 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I'm very pleased to see the current chill will be short-lived.  The Euro has 50s back to Iowa later this week and then 60s by early next week.  The daffodils are about ready to bloom in my yard.

Planted daffodils bulbs last October.  So far nothing has poked out of the ground.  Wonder if they crapped out lol.

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29 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This could be the worst severe weather season since 2011 folks

I think a lot of the people who have been trumpeting that expected the La Nina to hang on longer than it did. That said, today/tomorrow could get plenty dangerous in the South and there probably will be more systems later on down the line.

I wouldn't mind another crack at something like last March 28th without all the morning junk. Or at least March 15th, 2016. Glimpsed the EF2 near Hanna City, IL that day. First and only time I've seen a confirmed tornado on an actual chase, but it was just a brief glimpse in the post-dusk lightning flashes.

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We've been Spartman'd at 500 millibars.

Show me the moisture return.  It is often an issue at this time of year.  Getting systems in close succession would help in that regard because it would make it less likely that moisture gets shunted extremely far south in between each system.

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12 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Stupid question, but about how long would you guys say it'll be until it's really starting to turn green outside? Three more weeks? Four?

I usually as looking for the first hints of spring around masters weekend, but I think another 4-6 weeks is probably realistic for a green up (provided we dont have a significant warm spell). 

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15 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Stupid question, but about how long would you guys say it'll be until it's really starting to turn green outside? Three more weeks? Four?

Green grass, green shrubs, or green oak leaves?  It's usually a 2 month span here.  Then by the time the oak leaves are full green... around June 1st, the grass is already entering it's first summer brown phase.  Would prefer an early spring for once this year.  

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9 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Green grass, green shrubs, or green oak leaves?  It's usually a 2 month span here.  Then by the time the oak leaves are full green... around June 1st, the grass is already entering it's first summer brown phase.  Would prefer an early spring for once this year.  

 Exactly. It depends what is meant by green.  The grass will green in April however green trees will probably be early may

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11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 Exactly. It depends what is meant by green.  The grass will green in April however green trees will probably be early may

Last year was very odd in that the very first trees and shrubs leafed out early due to a warm period in the first week of April.  Most of the spring flowers were out slightly early too.  But then mid-April through mid-May was so cold and rainy that the typically late trees weren't even full yet by the end of May.  It was nice for taking nature walks in the woods as there was a lot of greenery but not a thick canopy yet... so nice sun shining through.

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43 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 Exactly. It depends what is meant by green.  The grass will green in April however green trees will probably be early may

ya, the very first flowers (snow drop flowers) will start appearing probably next week up here and shortly after a wide range of flowers and early shrubs. Im basing this off previous years and the fact that this has been a perfect lead up to next weeks 50-60s and sun. No snow melt, ground thawing, rain today ect.. 

Trees are generally Late April-Mothers day in the GTA, and unless we really have a warm early April (60s-70s non-stop) it probably will be around then.

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Just now, mississaugasnow said:

ya, the very first flowers (snow drop flowers) will start appearing probably next week up here and shortly after a wide range of flowers and early shrubs. Im basing this off previous years and the fact that this has been a perfect lead up to next weeks 50-60s and sun. No snow melt, ground thawing, rain today ect.. 

Trees are generally Late April-Mothers day in the GTA, and unless we really have a warm early April (60s-70s non-stop) it probably will be around then.

I think lack of moisture is the thing holding back the earliest stuff now.  The bulbs are ready to open as soon as afternoon temps reach the middle 50s and nights stay above freezing, but the stalks will need a little water to actually grow.  Snow melt mud is already crusty.  It only took a few days to dry out.  Soil is so sandy here that as soon as the frost is gone all the water soaks down into the ground.

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