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Monday Morning 2/22 Snow Event


Ji
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1 hour ago, Clueless said:

I have had a snow pack for the entire month but somehow I feel I missed out.  Or ‘we’ missed out since other members of the forum have seen even less. So weird after zippo the past few years. I’ll be happy to get another inch. Not getting my hopes up per the seasonal trend for things to dry up as soon as they pass the mountain.  

I can relate. Even up here despite the fact I’ve done great objectively it feels somewhat hollow because all the events underperformed to a degree. Had the 3 “big” storms this year looked like a 3-6” storm from 72 hours out and ended up 10/12/8”  I’d probably feel a LOT different then the fact they looked like 20/20/12” storms from 72 hours and all trended down. I know that makes no logical sense but I feel more excited when I get a 6” snow that was only supposed to be 1-3” then a 10” snow that was supposed to be 15-20”.  
 

Don’t get me wrong I would grade this winter a solid B+ even now but had one of the big storms been a flush hit instead of a bit of a letdown it would be a A with the exact same results. I also think my perception is affected by results in the DC area since I spend so much time focused on forecasting for a s getting that area snow! 

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34 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I get that, but it's still tough to overcome the southerly flow ahead of it on the coastal plain. It is possible the GEM/RGEM have the right idea, and that would work out pretty well for Baltimore proper even, and maybe get a little snow here.

I agree this is likely a forum divider (again) but it wouldn’t shock me if some decent snow sneaks in closer to Baltimore then normal given the low track. There are some pretty rare ancillary circumstances.  I’ve never seen a snowfall gradient like this year across our area before. I was looking at a snowfall % of normal map yesterday and across our area goes from much below normal right through the urban core to solidly above normal in the Catoctin area and along the PA line.  

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This product from the NAM nest (based off what the model microphysics thinks about how "pure" the snow is as it reaches the surface) has worked really well in some recent events, and it looks pretty reasonable to me for tomorrow (1-2 inches in northern MD).    IF the NAM nest is too slow with the arrival of the precip (a common bias, but a lot of the other guidance doesn't look *too* much faster), then we can potentially take more advantage of the colder profiles in place at the start of the morning.

945819419_ScreenShot2021-02-21at11_40_55AM.thumb.png.bec61b6c409cc5056af453de477e8c0e.png

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree this is likely a forum divider (again) but it wouldn’t shock me if some decent snow sneaks in closer to Baltimore then normal given the low track. There are some pretty rare ancillary circumstances.  I’ve never seen a snowfall gradient like this year across our area before. I was looking at a snowfall % of normal map yesterday and across our area goes from much below normal right through the urban core to solidly above normal in the Catoctin area and along the PA line.  

Lack of true cold hurt much of the time, and then there was bad luck/timing with the block that led to suppression/shredding of waves that could have been good events for southern/eastern areas. I guess I cant complain too much. I have just over 12", which is more than 12 times the snow from last winter lol.

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This is a crappy setup.  It just moves in too quick for the cold to retreat in northern areas.

Natures version of hitting a slow infield ground ball and sprinting  to first to just beat the throw by a hair.

Every time we've hit the ball far this year, it's been caught at the warning track.

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