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2021-2022 ENSO


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My forecast for winter is just about done. I'll link to it here in a few days. 

Euro still has a weaker La Nina than last year with the new update. I'm expecting Nino 3.4 to fall as low as 25.4-25.7 in Oct/Nov before rebounding warmer in winter. Last year fell to 25.28 in November before warming.

The Euro still uses 1981-2010 as the baseline, so CPC figures will come in 0.05-0.10C colder on the ONI site using the warmer, newer baseline. I classify La Ninas by how strong they are in winter. So to me, last year was a weak event, since it was only "moderate" in Oct-Nov, and weak the rest of the duration. This event may never actually drop below -1.0C even against the warmer recent baseline. I still like 25.75-26.15C for winter overall, but expecting 25.95C.

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Might as well mention this here:

Nino 3, Nino 3.4, and Nino 4 have tracked very similarly to a blend of 1967, 2001, 2011 at the surface for January-September.

When you roll the blends forward, you get the following for winter.

24.95C in Nino 3 (-0.65C v. 1951-2010)

25.95C in Nino 3.4 (-0.55C v. 1951-2010)

28.00C in Nino 4 (-0.10C v. 1951-2010) 

Nino 1.2 has been running warm of the blend all year, and September was close to +0.5C v. the blend in Nino 3. So if anything, Nino 3 may be somewhat warmer than what I have. At some point, these blends will break - but right now actual data keeps coming in slightly warmer than the blend. So there is space for quite a bit of cooling when the cold water does reach the surface. At this point, I see no reason for the blend not to hold for the La Nina structure through at least December.

I have a table showing the similarities of the three years to 2021 for the three zones in my outlook, I'll link it in a few days.

Last winter was similar in Nino 3, colder in Nino 3.4 (25.58C) and Nino 4 (27.32C).

 

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I'm not expecting this winter to drop below 25.50C in Nino 3.4 If that's the case, we'll have gone every winter since 2010-11 without a La Nina below 25.5C - one of the longer time frames for that since 1950.

There were some widespread rains over western NM and Arizona on 10/5-10/6 - that exact time showed up as a favored storm date in the Southwest in my analogs, so I think my outlook is on the right track with the timing variables I use.

I've mentioned 2011 a lot in this thread for similar La Nina development. Let me give some reasons why I don't particularly like it as an analog for actual weather:

1) MJO timing is a bit off. We were at the 4/5 border on 10/1. For 2011, the MJO was at 5/6 on 10/1. 

2) No Gulf Hurricanes. I don't mean US landfalls...I mean any hurricanes. At all. That's pretty weird and I don't like what it says about how the Atlantic is behaving. Probably not coincidentally, the AMO was also negative in winter 2011-12. Not looking that way this year.

3) 2011 was very cold in the Northwest in June (remember the 120s in Canada this past June?). When it did get hot int he Northwest in 2011, in September, it was fairly cool in 2021.

4) Arctic Sea Ice extent was considerably higher at the minimum value in 2021, despite following a much lower minimum year. On balance, that means Arctic patterns were more favorable for sea ice retention for a full year from 9/2020 (3.8m square km min) to 9/2021 (4.7m square km min) then from 9/2010 (4.6m square km min) to 9/2011 (4.3m square km min), especially given the warming up there since 2010. Long-term the lowest sea ice extent minimums are pretty correlated to the WPO in winter.

It's not hard to find similarities to 2011 though -

1) Second year La Nina winter

2) warmer than preceding winter in Nino 3.4

3) rising solar activity

4) similar subsurface development (warm Spring before cooling)

5) record precipitation Summer Northeast in a year with tropical storm hitting NE US

6) very negative PDO

My guess is 2011 will be a decent match to US precipitation patterns for a while (I'd give it a B for that) with the PDO state similar and the La Nina developing in a similar way. But I don't think it's going to be a good analog at all for temperatures. If you look nationally, it's definitely one of the best matches in the past century for precipitation in September.

 

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That is a good point about longest streak of 10 years without deep La Nina..

-PNA is record setting, +400dm coming up. This Sept/Oct is going to be most -PDO, meaning Aleutian ridge/GOA trough since satellites in 1948. The analogs are Strong El Nino's and Strong La Nina's, 04-05 broke the trend, moving to -PNA, it's 65% Strong events(+/-). But this is as "deep Nina" as we are going to get (models through October). -400dm -PNA, and close to -200dm for a Sept/Oct composite. 

2d.png

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I finished my winter outlook earlier today. I tried to send it from work to my computer at home to post it and save it here but it hasn't arrived yet.

I was looking at Nino 4 earlier too. From May 2020 to July 2021, Nino 4 was cooling year over year. Now it is flat/warming. My basic take is if Nino 4 was still cooling y/y this probably would be a La Nina Modoki. But since it doesn't seem to be cooling anymore, the coolest area will not be Nino 4. Essentially, Nino 4 is riding on the coat tails of last year. The cool down that was ongoing at this time last year was way more impressive given that Nino 4 was near record warmth as late as early 2020 (literally warmer than 1997-98 as an example). With warmth below the western edge of Nino 4 and less cold at the surface, and Nino 4 no longer cooling y/y, I just don't see a Modoki look developing like we had briefly late last winter. Enough cold will come up to cool off Nino 1.2/3 eventually, and some of that will get to Nino 4 late winter. But the cold that comes up has to cool off Nino 1.2/3 to the levels of last year before Nino 4 has a shot at getting cooled off a lot. 

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On 10/8/2021 at 1:59 PM, andyhb said:

image.thumb.png.57f79488ca909e7071bfa1d2eadc19f2.png

Bottom continues to fall out on the sub-surface readings. This is a pretty stout cooling occurring.

 

Wow, down below -1.5! Despite a still very reluctant drop in the SSTs to this point, that along with 30/90 day SOI averages near +10 still give me a good deal of confidence that the upcoming Nina ONI based peak will still reach moderate levels. We'll see.

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Wow, Nino 3.4 anomaly cooled a whopping 0.7 C to -0.7 C! I’ll check the records when I have time to see how this amount of anomaly cooling in just one week ranks with other weeks. It has to be near the top.

 

 Perhaps this is a reflection of the strong +SOI trends of recent weeks. There often is a couple of week lag from SOI to SST. Also, keep in mind that the Monday reports are based on the average forecast the prior week meaning about a 5 day reporting lag.

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36 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

We better hope so. A strong one and you might as well cancel winter.

That’s only true for the lower mid Atlantic. NYC North does just as well in strong Nina as enso neutral. Strong Nina+ severe North Atlantic blocking is an extremely good combo for snow in New England from what I have read. If the polar vortex was forecast to be strong then I would be worried about storms burying Wisconsin while we rain, but it is forecast to be weak. I do believe the strength of the La Niña will increase to just below 2010-2011 levels. Many weenies panicked and canceled winter that year too when they saw how powerful the La Niña was, but then us New England weenies got buried. It’s not like the La Niña drastically weakened or wasn’t coupled to the atmospheric pattern either, it was well coupled and while we got buried by blizzards in December and January, the La Niña was strong.

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4 hours ago, GaWx said:

Wow, Nino 3.4 anomaly cooled a whopping 0.7 C to -0.7 C! I’ll check the records when I have time to see how this amount of anomaly cooling in just one week ranks with other weeks. It has to be near the top.

 

 Perhaps this is a reflection of the strong +SOI trends of recent weeks. There often is a couple of week lag from SOI to SST. Also, keep in mind that the Monday reports are based on the average forecast the prior week meaning about a 5 day reporting lag.

 I just checked all of the weeks on record (~1,650 of them back to 1990) in Nino 3.4. It turns out that today's reported 0.7 anomaly cooling ties the largest on record with 11/8/2017 and 6/3/1998. So, this much of a cooling in just one week has been about a once every 10 year occurrence when averaged out over the 31 year record. I find stats like this fun to follow.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm actually glad to see the steep drop in 3.4 because it was looking pretty modoki for a bit. People need to remember that this once every ten year drop occured with region 3.4 at neutral, so let's not get carried away.

 I'm not getting carried away. I just think the rarity is interesting, not necessarily important from a predictive standpoint. Besides, a big move like this is hardly ever immediately folIowed by another big move in the same direction. It is almost as if it needs to take a breather.  

 I also noted a similar rarity here a couple of months ago when Nino 3.4 warmed by 0.6 in just one week. Rare large moves in either direction are fun for me to compare vs history.

 So, Nino 3.4 is now at -0.7, which is still a good ways from implying an oncoming moderate 3 month (ONI) peak. The weeklies would likely have to reach -1.3 or so.

 Having said all of this, something very interesting was noted in today's weekly ENSO report: 

"Starting this week, the weekly sea surface temperature data is based on OISSTv2.1".

 So, a portion of today's "cooling" may have been due to a changed dataset.

 

  

 

 

 

 

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The big drop off in SSTs this week likely is from CPC switching data sources.

For the 1951-2010 period, 26.50C is average in Nino 3.4 We're not 0.5C below that yet on the weeklies. Still running well warm of last year to the east, and somewhat warm of last year in Nino 4.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Starting this week, the weekly sea surface temperature data is based on OISSTv2.1 (Huang et al., 2021). This impacts slides #4-9. The source data is available at this link.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 01SEP2021     20.3-0.2     24.7-0.3     26.5-0.3     28.4-0.3
 08SEP2021     20.7 0.2     24.6-0.3     26.4-0.4     28.5-0.3
 15SEP2021     20.6 0.2     24.3-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.4-0.4
 22SEP2021     20.6 0.2     24.5-0.4     26.4-0.3     28.2-0.5
 29SEP2021     20.5-0.0     25.1 0.3     26.8 0.0     28.2-0.6
 06OCT2021     20.7 0.1     24.7-0.2     26.1-0.7     28.0-0.7
 02SEP2020     18.9-1.7     23.6-1.4     25.8-0.9     28.4-0.4
 09SEP2020     19.5-1.0     23.4-1.4     25.7-1.0     28.5-0.3
 16SEP2020     20.0-0.4     23.6-1.3     25.9-0.8     28.2-0.5
 23SEP2020     19.6-0.8     23.6-1.2     25.7-1.0     28.1-0.6
 30SEP2020     20.1-0.4     23.8-1.1     25.6-1.1     27.9-0.8
 07OCT2020     19.5-1.1     23.4-1.5     25.5-1.2     27.8-0.9
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9 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

The big drop off in SSTs this week likely is from CPC switching data sources.

For the 1951-2010 period, 26.50C is average in Nino 3.4 We're not 0.5C below that yet on the weeklies. Still running well warm of last year to the east, and somewhat warm of last year in Nino 4.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Starting this week, the weekly sea surface temperature data is based on OISSTv2.1 (Huang et al., 2021). This impacts slides #4-9. The source data is available at this link.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 01SEP2021     20.3-0.2     24.7-0.3     26.5-0.3     28.4-0.3
 08SEP2021     20.7 0.2     24.6-0.3     26.4-0.4     28.5-0.3
 15SEP2021     20.6 0.2     24.3-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.4-0.4
 22SEP2021     20.6 0.2     24.5-0.4     26.4-0.3     28.2-0.5
 29SEP2021     20.5-0.0     25.1 0.3     26.8 0.0     28.2-0.6
 06OCT2021     20.7 0.1     24.7-0.2     26.1-0.7     28.0-0.7
 02SEP2020     18.9-1.7     23.6-1.4     25.8-0.9     28.4-0.4
 09SEP2020     19.5-1.0     23.4-1.4     25.7-1.0     28.5-0.3
 16SEP2020     20.0-0.4     23.6-1.3     25.9-0.8     28.2-0.5
 23SEP2020     19.6-0.8     23.6-1.2     25.7-1.0     28.1-0.6
 30SEP2020     20.1-0.4     23.8-1.1     25.6-1.1     27.9-0.8
 07OCT2020     19.5-1.1     23.4-1.5     25.5-1.2     27.8-0.9

 Lol, I had just posted the same thing about the changed data source while you were typing. So, how much of the 0.7 drop is due to it is an unknown. There could still have been a legit decent drop embedded in that. 

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Still a basin-wide "weak center" La Nina to me. What I mean by that is the coldest waters are right by Peru and also west of 160W. Center zone, 140W at the equator is a bit weaker than the edges if anything. That warmth SW of Mexico is a major hindrance for the northern part of the Nino zones to get too cold though.

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3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Different way of coming up with these analogs and several different years, but interestingly a pretty similar look November-December and November-February overall as those. January and February differ a bit more from yours but still a pretty similar look and evolution overall...and with enough -NAO that I think most people would roll the dice with it. Curious to see if the October 500mb pattern ends up close to these analogs, NAO probably won't be as positive at the end of the month as these analogs...

1346213427_AnalogOct.png.171e6b8210b33761f89f389166916d1b.png

792631916_AnalogNov.png.f0de9d21a3fd01a82c3f48703fa4b90f.png

1638420812_AnalogDec.png.3af205a5abd6dcd4f45b0a3f3c3f86b6.png

125813097_AnalogJan.png.6ebd484b15534741241cc43ba82f3397.png

652568147_AnalogN-F.png.c66c63f492015613729314eb39a1ce2a.png

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13 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Still a basin-wide "weak center" La Nina to me. What I mean by that is the coldest waters are right by Peru and also west of 160W. Center zone, 140W at the equator is a bit weaker than the edges if anything. That warmth SW of Mexico is a major hindrance for the northern part of the Nino zones to get too cold though.

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Agree.

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October has switched to matching the "year after cold Nino 4 correlation" after Aug-Sept were complete opposite. Suspect this is due to the WPO switching phases in Sept to Oct. The green areas on top are positive correlations. So cold Nino 4 a year earlier favors cold. The blue areas are negative correlations - cold Nino 4 favors warm areas. You can see for October, the Midwest is warm as it should be via the correlation. West and South cold/mild. For November a cold / mild spot is possible in the South (similar to what I forecast) if we stay with the Nino 4 correlation + a year working. December is you guessed it: Cold in New Mexico after a cold Nino 4 December if the match holds.

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