Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

2021-2022 ENSO


Recommended Posts

We've had some Modoki La Nina looks in winter as of late, but it's been a fairly rare look in the Summer. Will be curious to see if we can retain the warmth by Peru and keep the cold to the West.

Summer 1986/1998/2008/2011 is kind of the right idea for what I expect for Summer SSTs. Not a super common look in the past 40 years.

Screenshot-2022-03-30-6-14-41-PM

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Solar activity has increased quite a bit in recent months. I annualize it to July-June. Since July, the average over 40 sunspots/month. March was over 75 sunspots for the month. If we finish at 55 sunspots for July-June, it's the first year I would consider to be "not" low-solar since 2015-16, when there were 55. Since the 1700s, annualized mean is 85 sunspots/year via SILSO, but when I run statistical tests, blocking and other features are more likely to show up below 55 sunspots annually.

Albuquerque had 3.7 inches of snow in March. Historically, three inches of snow, or more, in March is a ~30% occurrence in high-solar and a ~3%  occurrence in low-solar (<55 sunspots annualized). So I'm inclined to think we will finish over 55 for the year.

For what it's worth, the Euro thinks a third-year La Nina is horse-shit. It's probably due to be right again at some point?

Image

Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I like dry air, but these -10 to -20 dew points (F) with constant fierce wind this April are really getting on my nerves, especially after an excellent March for snow. Any real weather down here in Spring ends up killing a lot of people anyway via the blizzard and tornado outbreaks that follow downwind too.

Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7C for the week centered around April 13th. That is the coldest anomaly for that timeframe since weekly records were kept beginning in 1982. The prior mark was -1.4C in 1994.

I feel like we are going strongly toward El Nino (climo stats), this is a pretty strong opposite push, --/+

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7C for the week centered around April 13th. That is the coldest anomaly for that timeframe since weekly records were kept beginning in 1982. The prior mark was -1.4C in 1994.

You've got to be kidding me...so what are lookin' at? 3 dang la ninas in a row? Smh

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

73-74, 74-75, 75-76, Strong on the backend. 74-75 was big +PNA in that 3-year cycle, and 00-01 was big +PNA In that 3-year cycle. 2/2 had a strong +PNA Winter in 1 of the 3 years. 

Not bad range of outcomes there....modoki el nino, or +PNA la nina.....

'00-'01, or '02-'03, take your pick :weenie:

Either is fine with me, with a slight nod to the former.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Unfortunately, we have +QBO upcoming, which with a La Nina will be a disaster, but an El Nino this year in deep -QBO would have been great I think, (09-10)

There aren't any absolutes with respect to the QBO....its just a factor. Last season was a negative QBO with an eastern biased la nina, which was favorable for blocking, theoretically speaking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Last season was a negative QBO with an eastern biased la nina, which was favorable for blocking, theoretically speaking.

It evens out, it was a slightly -NAO Winter. positive QBO and La Nina have been some of our worst Winter's by a lot. 10mb vortex is like -1000dm mean. Going to be hard to get a -NAO next Winter if there is La Nina I think. It's like 65%/35 +NAO in +QBO/Nina vs 65%/35 -NAO in -QBO/Nino, 10mb vortex is strongest correlator. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

 

It evens out, it was a slightly -NAO Winter. positive QBO and La Nina have been some of our worst Winter's by a lot. 10mb vortex is like -1000dm mean. Going to be hard to get a -NAO next Winter if there is La Nina I think. It's like 65%/35 +NAO in +QBO/Nina vs 65%/35 -NAO in -QBO/Nino, 10mb vortex is strongest correlator. 

How do you get a -NAO winter out of this?

Dec 2021: 0.29
 Jan 2022: 1.08   Feb: 1.68   March: 0.77

What am I missing?

Also, you seem to be shifting the emphasis from a crap winter, to merely a positive NAO....maybe biased by your geography....but here in New England, we don't necessarily need a negative NAO in a la nina to do just fine. 1975-1976 and 2008-2009 are a couple of examples...both +QBO, as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...