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2021-2022 ENSO


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The 7th deepest red is getting near 170W. None of the blues are deeper than the 6th deepest. I've been expecting this event to weaken pretty rapidly in February. Think it will be over in March.

Screenshot-2022-01-16-1-51-17-PM

SOI is more likely than not to finish January negative as an example of a real-time response to the warmth advancing. The 90-day SOI has dropped below +8 too.

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
16 Jan 2022 1009.09 1007.55 -14.46 2.47 7.12
15 Jan 2022 1007.03 1007.60 -24.40 3.32 7.51
14 Jan 2022 1008.50 1005.95 -9.70 4.71 8.00
13 Jan 2022 1011.05 1005.35 5.14 5.64 8.43
12 Jan 2022 1013.14 1008.60 -0.32 6.01 8.61
11 Jan 2022 1011.99 1008.45 -5.04 6.46 8.80
10 Jan 2022 1007.84 1008.35 -24.11 7.04 9.02
9 Jan 2022 1007.02 1008.30 -27.74 8.33 9.43
8 Jan 2022 1008.45 1008.65 -22.65 9.56 9.77
7 Jan 2022 1011.09 1008.10 -7.63 10.53 9.97
6 Jan 2022 1012.63 1006.80 5.75 11.13 10.08
5 Jan 2022 1012.95 1006.50 8.67 11.33 10.17
4 Jan 2022 1011.63 1006.30 3.40 11.59 10.23
3 Jan 2022 1011.64 1006.80 1.09 12.00 10.27
2 Jan 2022 1011.96 1007.80 -2.11 12.36 10.40
1 Jan 2022 1013.42 1008.00 3.82 12.84 10.62
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On 1/8/2022 at 1:01 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Dude...you're acting like everybody knows the analogs in that minute of detail...lol (and what's a "wet west December"?)

I know ....how silly of folks on a weather forum to enjoy snow. He has some great content, but its tough to take it all in because the tone is so condescending and laced with arrogance that I throw up in my mouth reading him more often than not. What an inferiority complex.

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20 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Deepest reds start at +7F. Been a warm first half of winter. Well over half the lower-48 is more than +3 or hotter for the first half of winter.

Image

I am not surprised that the 1st half of winter has been warm across much of the country.  The pattern for much of the fall was awful leading into the winter months. 

 I had very low expectations for this winter. I only had lower expectations for the winter of 15-16. 

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2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I am not surprised that the 1st half of winter has been warm across much of the country.  The pattern for much of the fall was awful leading into the winter months. 

 I had very low expectations for this winter. I only had lower expectations for the winter of 15-16. 

15-16 was amazing from Jan 20 through February.

 

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3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

that was 14-15.....15-16 was the equivalent of the 9-73 Sixers...

haha yes it was 14-15..... I remember how everyone in the NE forums gave up on winter as New Years 2015 hit and then the real fun began.

In 2015-16 we got a 30 inch blizzard down here on Jan 20 and a couple other events in February that got us to 40 inches but that was it (oh and below zero morning on Valentines Day if that means anything.)

 

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On 1/7/2022 at 10:51 PM, raindancewx said:

Cracks me up to see people so happy with the snow in the East today and in recent days. It's extremely common for the East to get snow after a wet West December in week two of January if you look at the history. I think three of my five analogs had snow for the NE on 1/7.

Not enough people live in your area for the winters there to really matter.

I'm a big fan of population weighed climate.

 

Most of us don't give a damn about Western weather.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

haha yes it was 14-15..... I remember how everyone in the NE forums gave up on winter as New Years 2015 hit and then the real fun began.

In 2015-16 we got a 30 inch blizzard down here on Jan 20 and a couple other events in February that got us to 40 inches but that was it (oh and below zero morning on Valentines Day if that means anything.)

 

Yes. that storm stayed south of my area. Your area received 30 inches ,my area received 30 snowflakes 

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You guys crack me up with the comments. Keep 'em coming! I reckon you guys have 70,000-100,000 posts between you two. Why not actually spend some time enjoying the weather instead of just being snarky? I spent my little three week vacation from the site skiing and snowshoeing every day just about.

This is what I was referring to for snow. Year represents the period ending January 16th. So 1962 is July 1961-January 1962. 

Caribou Snow, July 1-Jan 16

1962: 23.6

1975: 56.2 x2

2002: 30.2

2018: 64.1

2021: 40.0

Blend:  47.8”

Actual: 43.0”

Boston Snow, July 1-Jan 16

1962: 13.8

1975:  7.0 x2

2002:  6.6

2018: 22.9 x2

2021: 17.5

Blend:  14.0"

Actual: 12.2"

New York City, July-Jan 16

1962:  7.8

1975:  1.5 x2

2002:  0.5

2018: 17.5 x2

2021: 10.5

Blend:  8.1"

Actual: 6.8"

Philadelphia, July-Jan 16

1962:  8.6

1975:  1.0 x2

2002:  0.0

2018: 12.7 x2

2021:  6.6

Blend:  6.1"

Actual: 4.6"

Baltimore, July-Jan 16

1962: 11.4

1975: 2.0  x2

2002: 0.0

2018: 5.2  x2

2021: 1.6

Blend:  3.9”

Actual: 3.0"

Washington DC, July-Jan 16

1962: 4.2

1975: 2.9

2002: 0.0

2018: 2.7

2021: 0.0

Blend:  2.2"

Actual: 12.1"

Richmond, July 16-Jan 16

1962: 13.1

1975:  0.0

2002:  7.7

2018:  6.1

2021:  1.0

Blend:  4.9"

Actual: 3.0"

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The great "moderate" (not) La Nina of 2021-22 is pretty dead. Almost no actual cold in Nino 3.4 (120-170W) below the surface. Still pretty cold in Nino 3, but that's on death watch too, even though it will take longer to warm up. The tentative SOI matches for Nov-Jan, assuming January remains around -7, are actually pretty interesting for February.

ImageImage

Also, on the weekly data, Nino 4 is now running a full degree above last year. It's not really in a La Nina state anymore.

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On 1/17/2022 at 7:16 PM, raindancewx said:

You guys crack me up with the comments. Keep 'em coming! I reckon you guys have 70,000-100,000 posts between you two. Why not actually spend some time enjoying the weather instead of just being snarky? I spent my little three week vacation from the site skiing and snowshoeing every day just about.

This is what I was referring to for snow. Year represents the period ending January 16th. So 1962 is July 1961-January 1962. 

Caribou Snow, July 1-Jan 16

1962: 23.6

1975: 56.2 x2

2002: 30.2

2018: 64.1

2021: 40.0

Blend:  47.8”

Actual: 43.0”

Boston Snow, July 1-Jan 16

1962: 13.8

1975:  7.0 x2

2002:  6.6

2018: 22.9 x2

2021: 17.5

Blend:  14.0"

Actual: 12.2"

New York City, July-Jan 16

1962:  7.8

1975:  1.5 x2

2002:  0.5

2018: 17.5 x2

2021: 10.5

Blend:  8.1"

Actual: 6.8"

Philadelphia, July-Jan 16

1962:  8.6

1975:  1.0 x2

2002:  0.0

2018: 12.7 x2

2021:  6.6

Blend:  6.1"

Actual: 4.6"

Baltimore, July-Jan 16

1962: 11.4

1975: 2.0  x2

2002: 0.0

2018: 5.2  x2

2021: 1.6

Blend:  3.9”

Actual: 3.0"

Washington DC, July-Jan 16

1962: 4.2

1975: 2.9

2002: 0.0

2018: 2.7

2021: 0.0

Blend:  2.2"

Actual: 12.1"

Richmond, July 16-Jan 16

1962: 13.1

1975:  0.0

2002:  7.7

2018:  6.1

2021:  1.0

Blend:  4.9"

Actual: 3.0"

How is the Blend for DC 2.2" while the Actual is 12.1"? Is that a typo?

 

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4 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I think this Kelvin wave is a headfake

wkxzteq_anm.gif.c26394bdfa142712d51b21ece26ca90c.gif

We'll keep doing this +/- thing for the next 1 year, I guess. I don't even know who sees this when. People play up the "help situation" until it becomes too ridiculous, all judgement- how good you are doing and stuff. 

Its still cooling in the west and warming in east so a transition is on going

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Nino 4 is probably going to return to positive (warm) departures in the next month on the weeklies, even with the 30 year sauna base period CPC uses.

I don't think we go directly to an El Nino in March, but the fact remains, we're six weeks ahead of the subsurface returning to Neutral v. 2021. It took til 3/10/21. Already there at 1/24/22. This is pretty consistent actually with the rapid warming the Euro plume has shown since the Fall.

Image

I was examining this today - most of the US is +5F for 60% of this winter so far when compared to the 60 years ending last winter. The orange zone is generally +7 or more. Memphis had the warmest 60-year departure for the whole country of the 100 or so sites mapped below. I went +3 to +5 for the South, which I thought was pretty warm, but we could blow that away if February is hot in the South after a normal-ish January.

Image

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The subsurface and SOI blends (now looks like it might be +1 or so for January) for Nov-Jan imply a look pretty similar to February 2001 for February 2022 in aggregate. Could change still if the subsurface warms a lot more by 1/31 or if the SOI unexpectedly crashes negative, but it looks very positive through 1/31, with low pressure by Darwin and high pressure by Tahiti uninterrupted.

At a +1 January SOI, 1999-00 is your closest SOI match for February.

For the subsurface, 2017-18 (one of my main winter analogs) had major weakening from January to February as this year is seeing. The 2011-12 La Nina has been similar for a while now below the surface, and also had a huge weakening in January following a brief, weak resurgence of the cold pool in December. Older years like 1984-85 are in there too though, and quite cold.

 

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