Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Upstate/Eastern New York


 Share

Recommended Posts

The 12z WRFs are hinting at a Cayuga Lake enhanced finger band potentially hitting down here. Meanwhile, the 18z NAM 3k shows the main LO band stretching all the way to Sullivan County in the southwestern Catskills. With upstream connections in play, there definitely going to be some nowcasting adjustments for this one.

ncep-wrf-arw-conus-syr-total_precip_inch-3908800.thumb.png.9415c9e82002b2547a35169b49789299.png

ncep-wrf-nmmb-conus-syr-total_precip_inch-3908800.thumb.png.74b991cd6a0b34831206300ade8e1d92.png

Nam 3k

nam-nest-syr-total_precip_inch-3973600.thumb.png.cf9e35bafa0ad26428f50f69d8c968e9.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

And you know what we get TUG, NADA, lol, but at least we'en getting used to the constant snow hole thats been over us for the past couple weeks now and perhaps more, lol.  Our time will come but not this yr I don't think!

 

1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

It is to account for the @TugHillMatt local effect. They're onto it.  

I'm just spent. Seriously. Getting missed in every direction. Just discouraging.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Through this evening, an approaching mid-level trough and
cooling temperatures aloft will result in some lake effect snow
showers developing across Western New York. This activity will
be disorganized, but there is a potential for heavier snow
showers to lower visibility below a half mile producing a quick
inch or two of snow through 9 p.m. Some mesoscale guidance
captures this, showing mobile bands with low confidence in band
placement.

A mid level trough will move east across the Great Lakes
tonight through Saturday, allowing cold air to deepen with time.
Inversion heights are initially quite shallow through the first
half of tonight. The approach of a mid level shortwave and
associated H7 cold pool and deeper moisture will then allow lake
induced equilibrium levels to rise to around 10K feet briefly
on Saturday, before inversion heights lower again by Saturday
evening.

Off Lake Ontario...

A few brief bursts of snow showers will develop through the first
half of tonight southeast of the lake, but these will likely remain
disorganized through most of the night given the relatively low
inversion heights. A band of lake effect snow should then become
better organized late tonight and especially Saturday morning across
Wayne and northern Cayuga counties as a convergence zone strengthens
along the south shore of the lake. The Canadian GEM suggests a well
defined upstream connection to Georgian Bay will develop during this
time frame, aiding in organizing and strengthening the band. The
band of snow will then likely become less organized during the
afternoon given the higher sun angle at this time of year forcing
more diurnal mixing, which tends to break up lake effect into
cellular convection.

Following the GEM, there is a decent likelihood of low end warning
criteria snowfall in a few locations from Wayne to Cayuga County
where bands persist the longest. Expect totals of 6-9 inches in the
most persistent bands, with most of that falling late tonight
through the first half of Saturday. Farther west in Monroe County,
expect the most persistent snow to fall late tonight through
Saturday morning along the Route 104 corridor, with 3-5 inches
possible in persistent bands from Hilton and Greece to Webster, with
much lower amounts farther south. With this in mind, converted the
Watch to an Advisory for Monroe County.

Farther west, a band of snow with origins from the main body of Lake
Huron may bring a few inches of snow in narrow bands across portions
of Niagara, Orleans, and Genesee counties, possibly clipping the
northeast corner of Erie County. This would mostly fall later
tonight through Saturday morning.

Off Lake Erie...

There is a substantial amount of ice cover across most of the lake,
but the latest visible satellite imagery from a few days ago still
showed a large enough area of open water and thin/broken ice to the
south and southeast of Long Point to support a lake response. High
resolution model guidance suggests periods of lake effect snow and
upslope snow will develop this evening, and continue off and on
through Saturday from the Boston Hills and western Wyoming County
southward to the Chautauqua Ridge. The Canadian GEM tries to bring
lake effect snow farther north towards Buffalo late tonight through
Saturday morning, but this seems too far north given the upper level
pattern. The one caveat, ice cover on Lake Erie can sometimes result
in lake effect snow developing farther north than would be expected
for a given wind direction, as ice cover essentially changes the
effective shape and orientation of the lake. For now went with a few
inches of accumulation up to the Buffalo Southtowns tonight through
Saturday.

Farther south, totals of 4-6 inches in the most persistent bands
appear likely tonight through Saturday, and with that in mind issued
a Winter Weather Advisory for Southern Erie, Wyoming, Chautauqua,
and Cattaraugus counties. The higher amounts will focus across the
higher terrain.

Saturday night the lake effect snow will gradually diminish and end
east of Lake Erie. Off Lake Ontario, a band of snow may re-organized
for awhile overnight as land breeze circulations intensify and
increase convergence along the south shore of the lake. This may
produce a few more inches of snow, especially near and just east of
Irondequoit Bay.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...