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Feb 18-19 Storm Obs/Discussion


NorEastermass128
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This thing is a sheared out mess...

The WAA/isentropic aspect is being displaced many hours down stream to the point of being ripped away ... opening up a gap between it ( the deep blue p-type rad wall pressently DCA to NJ...) ...and a cyclogen latter response that is more more evidenced as being "starved" ...because the antecedent is stealing away seaward with the dynamics. 

SO,  in total...this is a system that straight up clearly got butt f*ed by the fast flow... 

This is proving as in motion paragon, why compression does not favor deep lows.  Nice learning op... 

It's all relative - if the in situ mechanics were overwhelming ...you may get closer to a fast moving bomb, but the stretching ...ultimately leading to shearing forces are always there...and it's up to the in situ mechanics to either able to hold it together...or burst up and shred like this bootleg 30 hour ordeal ends up becoming of it -

 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So that push of sleet getting near CNJ to NYC that was not modeled there has no influences at all on how far north the snow gets? Shouldn’t that mean a stronger WAA push resulting in snow farther up into CNE and heavier bands farther into SNE ultimately?

No. System gets sheared at a certain latitude, regardless of the thermal profile...has nothing to do with temps. If that compressed flow was not there, then yes.

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Still nothing.

Radar is deceptive. 
 

forecast is skeptical showing only 60% POPs, later start time, but I am thinking that’s conservative.

we aren’t really that far north but it reminds me of some of those early 2004 systems when I lived in RI that hit westerly and Warwick but snow never made it to Woonsocket 

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Just now, IowaStorm05 said:

Still nothing.

Radar is deceptive. 
 

forecast is skeptical showing only 60% POPs, later start time, but I am thinking that’s conservative.

we aren’t really that far north but it reminds me of some of those early 2004 systems when I lived in RI that hit westerly and Warwick but snow never made it to Woonsocket 

It’s virga there. Real snow is closer to 95 to maybe 10 miles north or so

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So we all have to wait for wave 2 tonight ?

Yeah anyone north of the meat of thiswon't get much accumulation until tonight....it will just be some shredded garbage. Can't rule out a coating to an inch this afternoon though...esp down by you. I'm expecting jack shit here until tonight.

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