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February 18/19 Party - STORM MODE


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, Warm Nose said:

Seems to be haulin' ass though which is going to cut down the QPF

 And scary, because most storms this winter seem to move through even quicker than had been modeled. Even that rain event two nights ago, was here and gone in just a few hours. 

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12 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

Huge discrepancies in QPF right now on EURO vs. other models... Not too sure about it tbh. Even the typically dry 3k NAM has about .2" more for the NW crew than the EURO. 

i mean no other region in the country has to go through this where right before a snowstorm....models are so different with snow/qpf/upper level temps..etc/having or not having a wave 2

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Just now, Ji said:

i mean no other region in the country has to go through this where right before a snowstorm....models are so different with snow/qpf/upper level temps..etc/having or not having a wave 2

Hasn’t happened yet brother.  Keep the faith.  We are never getting the storm you want which is Jan 16’...not this year.  Be happy it could be rain...all rain. 

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3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

It’s weird.  The GFS-Para jacks the DC metro area with precip.  The Euro has the same area as a precip hole.  

Def not a precip hole in the slightest. DC actually has more qpf than regions to the north. It is more sleet than snow on the euro however. 
Edit: I see you said snow hole! No argument there

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Just now, SnowDreamer said:

The para is just an outlier, IMO. It's not like it has support from other models anymore. It was abandoned by the parent GFS and the Ukie and it's trying to hold down the weenie fort all by its lonesome. I would weight it very low right now. 

How about the Icon? Better or worse than the Para? NOGAPS? 

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20 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Glad we have consensus like 24 hours away.  
 

 

5FFAE8BE-FB3C-4664-9A68-499F0DF8E285.png

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Here in Philly it's the same theme. The closer to the event the more confusing it is becoming. I think its the multiple shortwaves causing all the issues. Youre seeing a partial phase with the energy dropping down from Canada while the main energy is still digging in the south. The timing & strength of this seems to be causing increased variables. 

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5 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Def not a precip hole in the slightest. DC actually has more qpf than regions to the north. It is more sleet than snow on the euro however. 
Edit: I see you said snow hole! No argument there

Sorry, I edited it so snowhole after I saw that the precip was actually fairly decent.  Looks like a combination of precip and temp differences.  

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Between model run question inspired by the IBM model posts before. 

Are all the major models entirely government-funded models? If so, it does seem to me that there should be market incentive to push the limits on modeling. For gov't purposes it may be sufficient to give people a 24-48 hour warning of inclement weather, allow preparations to be made to protect life and property, and make sure you have the salt trucks and plows deployed in the right places (and erring on the side of caution here is no big deal). But if I've got billions invested and it's going to be affected by ice or travel disruptions, I want to know 2 weeks ago. 

Science has limits and it may just be that there isn't much more that can be done. But if I was Elon Musk ...  

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