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February 18/19 Party - STORM MODE


stormtracker
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15 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

This has been some great discussion and I thank you and the red taggers who have engaged. Could it be that the not ideal mid level low track now results in quicker warming than we have seen in the past? Where does the warm air come from, is it from the southern land or does the ocean water come into play here? 

Its almost like typical fall line storms are now fall line + 10 miles storms, meaning you need to be 10+ miles further north/west than in the past to get the same results, and those east of that line get mud.

That’s my suspicion. If everything is 1-2 degrees warmer a warm layer that was right at freezing is now just above. 

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Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
956 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-504-506-508-VAZ052>054-506-172300-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0008.210218T0800Z-210219T1100Z/
/O.EXA.KLWX.WS.W.0007.210218T0800Z-210219T1100Z/
District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-
Anne Arundel-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun-
956 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow along with sleet and freezing rain. Total snow
  accumulations around 3 to 6 inches with ice accumulation around
  one to a quarter inch.

* WHERE...The Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday. Snow will begin
  between 3 and 5 AM. Snow will change to a mixture of sleet and
  freezing rain during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow Thursday morning will be heavy at
  times with snowfall rates around 1 to 2 inches per hour possible
  along with visibility reduced to around one-quarter mile at
  time.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.


 

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There is a ton of juice down on the Gulf coast when looking at the national radar. And it is getting juicier by the hour.  The cold is in place and is the best cold we have had this entire season. I like our chances.

24/10 in the Winchester area.

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/anim_nrc.gif

 

 

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

RGEM is a sleet bomb for DC which would be fun and keeps light precip around until the overnight hours into Friday.  

RGEM kinda sucks.  Much drier for DC and points south.  Slighty colder at 850 and 700, but not enough to make a huge difference.  

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

RGEM kinda sucks.  Much drier for DC and points south.  Slighty colder at 850 and 700, but not enough to make a huge difference.  

Sim radar looked like a lot of sleet which I’m 100% fine with but hadn’t seen the total precip.  Definitely drier.  It looks like it’d be about 3” of snow/sleet for DC based on the QPF map.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

RGEM kinda sucks.  Much drier for DC and points south.  Slighty colder at 850 and 700, but not enough to make a huge difference.  

Given how much this model swings for the fences with precip I just don't know how much to trust a sudden shift to the other end of the spectrum.  It could just be correcting itself but need to see if others also do the same.

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4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

WSW for 4-8” and up to a 0.25”. Yes please. Anybody who calls that a “disaster” is a dang fool. 

Yup. Typical La Nina climo storm...you nickel and dime your way towards climo. Considering that we had almost nothing to track last year inside of D15, this is at least something.

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5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

WSW for 4-8” and up to a 0.25”. Yes please. Anybody who calls that a “disaster” is a dang fool. 

Not everyone is going to see 4-8" and will see a lot more sleet/ice. So, while it looks great for YOU, it is not so great for others. :) 

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1 minute ago, flsch22 said:

over one inch of ice! hope that was a typo. otherwise, better find some candles and prepare to lose power for days

Usually these sections are pre-filled text that they select as an option to include during the creation of the product. However, forecasters can free hand additional information, so either we found a bug OR we hope it was a typo!

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1 minute ago, wolfpackwxDC said:

Usually these sections are pre-filled text that they select as an option to include during the creation of the product. However, forecasters can free hand additional information, so either we found a bug OR we hope it was a typo!

The products were updated to say, "around one tenth to one quarter of an inch".

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