• Member Statistics

    16,653
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    samithdfm
    Newest Member
    samithdfm
    Joined
nj2va

Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

23z HRRR has precip getting to DC between 4-5a.  Here’s the sounding at 8a which is super close...and check out the lift in the DGZ!  Sleet line looks to dissect/bounce around DC mid morning.  Should be a fun few hours.

image.thumb.png.9d4a5a9f2fb9a5e6cc0a67bac9e536fb.png

HRRR is pretty killer for DC.  Flirts and probably sleet mixes in, but basically holds the column until 11 or Noon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Deck Pic said:

HRRR is pretty killer for DC.  Flirts and probably sleet mixes in, but basically holds the column until 11 or Noon.

I love how its not 0.1” QPF over 6 hours either...looks to come in hot and heavy.  It’ll be a fun morning.  Good luck out there...you’re in a good spot.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Problem with the euro is you dont get access to soundings, and the warm nose is in between the levels available.

It’s annoying but you can use the other guidance wrt how far north of the h85 and h7 they get the warm layers to make an educated guess. You will get close enough that whatever minor error the model isn’t likely to be that accurate anyways. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like the insurance policy on frozen precipitation. ZR isnt happening. So even if I only get .10 as snow, I'll get another .6-.8 as sleet. And it's going to pound at times. I have little concern with this storm. Gulf lows are easier on the nerves in general too

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

From my experience as an observer, the I-81 crew does really well when they're on the western periphery of the good modeled QPF.  And usually get in a really good secondary band

i mean the QPF is an estimate, not some kind of rule that the precip has to follow. i haven't looked at any of the runs today but it seemed yesterday that the upper air dynamics were great. that will make a difference.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This was my write up on my weather site...not going to post the images, you can pull those.

Now that we’re about ~10 hours or so away from snow falling, the HRRR short range model is out to use as guidance. Pictured I have is when snow begins for the majority of the area which is around 6am and then when it generally gets the heaviest around 9am. Also pictured is the accumulation map thru noon. Generally the area has 3-4” inches of snow by noon and then sleet becomes much more likely especially around I 95 and the cities. I believe this is a solid call and generally is what most of the data is showing. So at this point, I expect snow to break out area wide between about 5-6am and get heaviest from 8-11am. That is when we will add the most accumulation so good idea to not be traveling during those hours. Then by lunchtime sleet becomes more likely followed by light sleet and/or freezing rain for the afternoon and evening with some ice accumulation possible. A general 2-5” for most is a solid call i believe with the most just north and west of I 95 where maybe a few folks could attain 6” if sleet holds off. Be safe tomorrow, whatever does fall will slop up the roads as temps should remain below 30 for the majority if not all of the day. Friday should be better but need to analyze if any backend snow or ice potential is there for Friday morning still.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

HRRR is pretty killer for DC.  Flirts and probably sleet mixes in, but basically holds the column until 11 or Noon.

So I'm finally learning how to read soundings. The temps at different heights are still hard to grasp. What am I looking at with the blue dotted temp line? Does it follow those red lines? Because that would be pretty warm upstairs but that has to be wrong...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know it’s the hrrrr but I don’t hate it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey y'all. I know yesterday I promised a map for the storm, but I got called into work today as another winter threat trended north right back into my neck of the woods. I haven't been able to look at much, but I do think there will be a decent snow for areas north of I-66.

3-6" with locally higher over NoVA west of DC, 1-4" for areas south of DC and 1-4" for inside the Capital Beltway. 3-6" line will extend NE through MoCo up to I-70. I like 4-8" with local to 10" for north of I-70 and out west of US15.

Sleet will bomb areas south and east of US15. It's going to be a wintry scene for the area.

I'll be following along a bit when I can, but I'll be in tomorrow for our own storm where 2-4" with locally more are possible due to convective snow elements. Good luck to all and enjoy the snow :)

  • Like 10
  • Thanks 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

From my experience as an observer, the I-81 crew does really well when they're on the western periphery of the good modeled QPF.  And usually get in a really good secondary band

I know someone else...

  • Haha 2
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

So I'm finally learning how to read soundings. The temps at different heights are still hard to grasp. What am I looking at with the blue dotted temp line? Does it follow those red lines? Because that would be pretty warm upstairs but that has to be wrong...

The 0 temp line is dashed in the middle, the red/green lines are temp and dew as you move down the atmosphere to the surface. Heights is along the left, temp along the bottom. When the red crosses the 0 dashed line, precip is rain and depending where in that column it happens, is when you get different precip types. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hey y'all. I know yesterday I promised a map for the storm, but I got called into work today as another winter threat trended north right back into my neck of the woods. I haven't been able to look at much, but I do think there will be a decent snow for areas north of I-66.

3-6" with locally higher over NoVA west of DC, 1-4" for areas south of DC and 1-4" for inside the Capital Beltway. 3-6" line will extend NE through MoCo up to I-70. I like 4-8" with local to 10" for north of I-70 and out west of US15.

Sleet will bomb areas south and east of US15. It's going to be a wintry scene for the area.

I'll be following along a bit when I can, but I'll be in tomorrow for our own storm where 2-4" with locally more are possible due to convective snow elements. Good luck to all and enjoy the snow :)

That band in south TX tomorrow is simply incredible. Must be quite an event for y'all down there. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mappy said:

The 0 temp line is dashed in the middle, the red/green lines are temp and dew as you move down the atmosphere to the surface. Heights is along the left, temp along the bottom. When the red crosses the 0 dashed line, precip is rain and depending where in that column it happens, is when you get different precip types. 

What about the purple dotted line? Isn't that the precip vs. temps as you rise through the atmosphere? 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

That band in south TX tomorrow is simply incredible. Must be quite an event for y'all down there. 

It's been pretty insane. I'll have to recap everything at some point. It's historic in many aspects for my area. I'm out in west TX btw, between Abilene and El Paso!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

What about the purple dotted line? Isn't that the precip vs. temps as you rise through the atmosphere? 

Per the legend on the left, mixed layer parcel which I know nothing about. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

PZF updated to 6-10”! LFG! Hope snow comes in like a wall and everybody cashes in on a solid 3-6” before we even mention the word “mix”

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.