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nj2va

Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs

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The worst part about this busting is that it fooking sleeted hard enough to wake us up before going to rain. Like, if I’m not gonna get snow at least let me sleep, cmon!

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52 minutes ago, Rhoady said:

10z: 27F/23, light mix, 80/20 PL/SN--, 1.0"

Rates vary quite a bit; showery, from ++ to - every five to ten mins.

11z: 26F/25, light mix, 80/20 PL/ZR, 1.2"

 

The meso analysis that dec pic posted is relevant at least afa precip changing back from 90% ZR to 80-90% PL an hr or so later imby 

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Just now, Ka60 said:

 

My temp is 25 in Clarksburg!  heavier the precip got, it changed to rain from Sleet!!! how is that possible?

No denying the LLJ and warming aloft.

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Just now, D-Train said:

Anyone in Front Royal / Strasburg/ etc under the heavy stuff? If so, what’s falling?

I’m in south leesburg. All sleet. 7caefb74cf6caaba4ccde35165552fdb.jpg


.

It's still snow in the Winchester area. But I am eyeing those returns to my south as well. If that is snow we are getting buried. But I would bet it's sleet. 3.2 inches so far.

Snow 23 degrees.

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4 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

just switched from sleet to snow here as well.

Same. 

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Forecasts have definitely improved over the years. There were countless busts in the 90s due to similar setups or just flat out undermodeled downsloping, etc. If anything, it’s impressive that the nam was so intent and correct about the mix line. Globals have improved at 5 day leads but there’s clearly still some areas for improvement in these types of fringe setups.

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Just now, 87storms said:

Forecasts have definitely improved over the years. There were countless busts in the 90s due to similar setups or just flat out undermodeled downsloping, etc. If anything, it’s impressive that the nam was so intent and correct about the mix line. Globals have improved at 5 day leads but there’s clearly still some areas for improvement in these types of fringe setups.

Yeah the biggest bust that comes to mind was Jan 25, 2000.  Of course that was great for snow lovers!

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Just now, 87storms said:

Forecasts have definitely improved over the years. There were countless busts in the 90s due to similar setups or just flat out undermodeled downsloping, etc. If anything, it’s impressive that the nam was so intent and correct about the mix line. Global have improved at 5 day leads but there’s clearly still some areas for improvement in these types of fringe setups.

I think people just need to start putting more stock into seasonal trends.  Every winter event this year, at least in DC, has featured a quicker flip to mix and less snow than models suggested.  In other years, however, it seemed like every winter event went the other direction, where snow hung on longer and forecasts were always busting a bit low. 

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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Forecasts have definitely improved over the years. There were countless busts in the 90s due to similar setups or just flat out undermodeled downsloping, etc. If anything, it’s impressive that the nam was so intent and correct about the mix line. Globals have improved at 5 day leads but there’s clearly still some areas for improvement in these types of fringe setups.

The column on the globals was super borderline. We just collectively chose to ignore the possibility that they might be a smidge too cold.

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Should I post the CC radar for you? ;)

26.7 and all sleet

I’m trying to interpret it now and not having much luck.

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17 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Lol all snow here right now.  Had sleet for a few minutes around 5am but then back to light snow.  Light coating on the ground.  Glad I didn't get invested for this event. 

Flipped over to ZR for me already.  Maybe a little sleet and some flakes sparsely mixed in...

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

I’m trying to interpret it now and not having much luck.

Doesn't feel like this wants to be anything but freezing rain with some sleet here...guess we hope for a fast mover

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