mattie g Posted February 18 Just woke up. I’m guessing people are upset? 2 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NattyBo Posted February 18 The worst part about this busting is that it fooking sleeted hard enough to wake us up before going to rain. Like, if I’m not gonna get snow at least let me sleep, cmon! 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
North Balti Zen Posted February 18 At least Little Rock got a foot and memphis another six inches. 1 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rhoady Posted February 18 52 minutes ago, Rhoady said: 10z: 27F/23, light mix, 80/20 PL/SN--, 1.0" Rates vary quite a bit; showery, from ++ to - every five to ten mins. 11z: 26F/25, light mix, 80/20 PL/ZR, 1.2" The meso analysis that dec pic posted is relevant at least afa precip changing back from 90% ZR to 80-90% PL an hr or so later imby Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted February 18 Just now, Ka60 said: My temp is 25 in Clarksburg! heavier the precip got, it changed to rain from Sleet!!! how is that possible? No denying the LLJ and warming aloft. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
North Balti Zen Posted February 18 Just now, mattie g said: Just woke up. I’m guessing people are upset? Not the Union bridge guy. He’s reporting infinite snow. 1 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
clskinsfan Posted February 18 Just now, D-Train said: Anyone in Front Royal / Strasburg/ etc under the heavy stuff? If so, what’s falling? I’m in south leesburg. All sleet. . It's still snow in the Winchester area. But I am eyeing those returns to my south as well. If that is snow we are getting buried. But I would bet it's sleet. 3.2 inches so far. Snow 23 degrees. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LeesburgWx Posted February 18 I have heavy sleet and everything including roads are white from sleet. Where is the snow? I thought it was supposed to be snow right now Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BFZ Posted February 18 4 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: just switched from sleet to snow here as well. Same. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
leesburg 04 Posted February 18 A little more sleet mixing in...but Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Snowchaser Posted February 18 Have about 3” inches of snow/sleet Snowshoe WV. It’s now heavy freezing rain coming down now. I’m expecting to lose power here soon. God speed everyone. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
87storms Posted February 18 Forecasts have definitely improved over the years. There were countless busts in the 90s due to similar setups or just flat out undermodeled downsloping, etc. If anything, it’s impressive that the nam was so intent and correct about the mix line. Globals have improved at 5 day leads but there’s clearly still some areas for improvement in these types of fringe setups. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mattie g Posted February 18 Welcome aboard the winter 2020-2021 failure train, folks! Plenty of seats in the back! Glad to have you along for the ride! 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Stormfly Posted February 18 Just now, 87storms said: Forecasts have definitely improved over the years. There were countless busts in the 90s due to similar setups or just flat out undermodeled downsloping, etc. If anything, it’s impressive that the nam was so intent and correct about the mix line. Globals have improved at 5 day leads but there’s clearly still some areas for improvement in these types of fringe setups. Yeah the biggest bust that comes to mind was Jan 25, 2000. Of course that was great for snow lovers! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MN Transplant Posted February 18 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: Just woke up. I’m guessing people are upset? Should I post the CC radar for you? 26.7 and all sleet 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
real Posted February 18 Just now, 87storms said: Forecasts have definitely improved over the years. There were countless busts in the 90s due to similar setups or just flat out undermodeled downsloping, etc. If anything, it’s impressive that the nam was so intent and correct about the mix line. Global have improved at 5 day leads but there’s clearly still some areas for improvement in these types of fringe setups. I think people just need to start putting more stock into seasonal trends. Every winter event this year, at least in DC, has featured a quicker flip to mix and less snow than models suggested. In other years, however, it seemed like every winter event went the other direction, where snow hung on longer and forecasts were always busting a bit low. 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
clskinsfan Posted February 18 The NAM was trash with this storm. The GEM was the only model that insisted this was purely an ice bomb. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mattie g Posted February 18 Just now, MN Transplant said: Should I post the CC radar for you? 26.7 and all sleet I’m good. Just enjoying the meltdowns among the folks who haven’t had need to melt yet this year! 26 and sleet in Burke. 1 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Deck Pic Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: Forecasts have definitely improved over the years. There were countless busts in the 90s due to similar setups or just flat out undermodeled downsloping, etc. If anything, it’s impressive that the nam was so intent and correct about the mix line. Globals have improved at 5 day leads but there’s clearly still some areas for improvement in these types of fringe setups. The column on the globals was super borderline. We just collectively chose to ignore the possibility that they might be a smidge too cold. 6 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxUSAF Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Should I post the CC radar for you? 26.7 and all sleet I’m trying to interpret it now and not having much luck. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NovaWahoo Posted February 18 25/23 and a mix of sleet and freezing rain. And darkness. So much darkness. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hsq Posted February 18 17 minutes ago, IronTy said: Lol all snow here right now. Had sleet for a few minutes around 5am but then back to light snow. Light coating on the ground. Glad I didn't get invested for this event. Flipped over to ZR for me already. Maybe a little sleet and some flakes sparsely mixed in... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
blueberryfaygo Posted February 18 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Same. Ugh. Are you still sleeting? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
leesburg 04 Posted February 18 Just now, WxUSAF said: I’m trying to interpret it now and not having much luck. Doesn't feel like this wants to be anything but freezing rain with some sleet here...guess we hope for a fast mover Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Imgoinhungry Posted February 18 Im ready for spring! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MN Transplant Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m trying to interpret it now and not having much luck. No, it is a better tool when there is one distinct transition. This is a mess. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted February 18 Already in a precip hole lol. Light sleet and snizzle. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
300 square feet Posted February 18 26.9 and moderate freezing rain in upper NW. A few sleet pellets here and there. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dailylurker Posted February 18 I hope this just goes to freezing rain. Sleet is so annoying and boring. Another great forecast. Snow until 11am lmao Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
blueberryfaygo Posted February 18 Even the Radar Lies... 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
