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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs


nj2va
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3 minutes ago, real said:

I don't really think its a bust -- ... But just more evidence that meteorologists who communicate with the public probably should revert back to how it was in the 80s and 90s -- when weather professionals would rarely talk about possible accumulations until the day before the storm hits,.   Putting out public snow maps two or three days ahead of time, seems to just set up unrealistic expectations and can cause more confusion than it helps.

Something similar happened in the Monday storm in the Pittsburgh - Buffalo corridor. Initial forecasts were for 6 to 12 inches of snow in many of those places, with snow maps issued days ahead of time. But then the sleet pushed in way, way faster and farther North. You could see it coming on the models the day ahead of time, but most of the public never got the message. And the The public was not happy,. 

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

No model had freezing rain for us. None.

No, but the much-ridiculed NAM once again lead the way on this. What a winter it has had. You can take the GFS, HRRR, and Euro and throw them in the trash can.

I'm sitting at 25 with a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Seems to go to all sleet in heavier bands. This is probably the most frustrating winter I can remember. At least some previous winters, you just closed the blinds and took the loss and took your lumps because you were coming off a run of really good winters. The amount of time I've spent tracking essentially nothing this winter makes me understand why Bob Chill stepped away.

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

26 and rain before daybreak. Guess we will see what a legit ice event looks like in the corridors.

ugh thats awful. models didn't capture this warm layer very well having it mix so soon, i thought i had until at least mid morning. going to be icy for sure for many. lot of precip still to move through. 

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

It sure would be nice if the precip were a bit heavier now while the column is still good. Just stuck my head out the door and it's all snow, but mostly light to at times moderate.

Temp is 26.

My temp is 25 in Clarksburg!  heavier the precip got, it changed to rain from Sleet!!! how is that possible?

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

26 and rain before daybreak. Guess we will see what a legit ice event looks like in the corridors.

If this were to stay all frz, what is anyone best guess for how much ice we are facing? I've lost track of what total precip is expected, if you cut out snow and sleet.  It's clearly all rain now in downtown dc, and you can see it already starting to build up on the streets and sidewalks.

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

No, but the much-ridiculed NAM once again lead the way on this. What a winter it has had. You can take the GFS, HRRR, and Euro and throw them in the trash can.

I'm sitting at 25 with a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Seems to go to all sleet in heavier bands. This is probably the most frustrating winter I can remember. At least some previous winters, you just closed the blinds and took the loss and took your lumps because you were coming off a run of really good winters. The amount of time I've spent tracking essentially nothing this winter makes me understand why Bob Chill stepped away.

Yeah, still don’t agree with all the NAM hot taeks. It missed the synoptic setup badly. 

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