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nj2va

Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems a bit drier vs the overnight runs (that’s been the trend all winter up to game time), but generally stronger with the initial snow thump. Less sleet. So far happy hour’s been pretty good for the cities and immediate suburbs. I’d say 3-6” plus some sleet is a pretty reasonable call for our yards. If we can hold off the warm layer just for another hour or two, it would make a big difference.

Those widespread 1"+ qpf runs were suspect anyways (imo). When they first started hitting I was thinking if my yard can pull off .75 is would be fine. About right. 

Ptypes on this one are nutty. Walking lines all over the area at times. 3k nam says this is sleet ptype but this sure looks like a snow sounding to me. There's a lot of that going on under the hood it seems 

0TjXtu6.png

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Those widespread 1"+ qpf runs were suspect anyways (imo). When they first started hitting I was thinking if my yard can pull off .75 is would be fine. About right. 

Ptypes on this one are nutty. Walking lines all over the area at times. 3k nam says this is sleet ptype but this sure looks like a snow sounding to me. There's a lot of that going on under the hood it seems 

0TjXtu6.png

I only checked the early gfs sounding up my way today, but had similar looking skews for a few hours. I don’t think it would be a pure sleet, especially if it’s coming down at a good clip. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Kindling 

You’re hate is strong, don’t ever change. 

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5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IMO, Sterling's snow map looks pretty good and I don't see anything on the guidance that would throw a red flag they're too high.

      The NAM nest would probably cut those totals down a bit due to an earlier changeover to sleet.    Not saying that the nest will be right, but that would be how we bust low.   Hoping that enough liquid comes in at the start so that we can still pile up several inches, even with early mixing.

    

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Is part of the issue for soundings vs. sleet or snow output on TT the color scheme? That first purple color for puking snow is awfully close to, if not the exact same shade, as one of the sleet shades of purple. 

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21 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

Agree - hard to go against historical climo. Not saying it can't and doesn't happen, but the times where it does are far fewer than the other direction. Favorable areas are that for a reason.

Well I’m just going off of what is happening now. Look at the total qpf modeled on the short range models and it is paltry from about middle Tennessee westward but what is happening there now is a qpf beatdown

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Those widespread 1"+ qpf runs were suspect anyways (imo). When they first started hitting I was thinking if my yard can pull off .75 is would be fine. About right. 

Ptypes on this one are nutty. Walking lines all over the area at times. 3k nam says this is sleet ptype but this sure looks like a snow sounding to me. There's a lot of that going on under the hood it seems 

0TjXtu6.png

                I think that scenario would be "heavily-rimed snow".   It will still accumulate but at a reduced ratio.     I think the idea of less-than-pure-snow is what the NAM nest has in mind, as the Ferrier accumulation on TT shows really, really low amounts.    It does that when the rime factor (accounting for supercooled water building on falling snowflakes in an environment that promotes partial melting) of the falling precip is pretty high.    I think that the amounts being shown on these maps today is too low, but it is telling me that we're going to be walking a fine line between precip types.

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@Deck Pic love that view! Didn’t realize you were also on a mountain. I lived in Winchester 30 plus years but my best friend lived in capon bridge. He always got more snow but didn’t have your elevation. I imagine you snow climo must be 40” a year or close to it. 

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2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

FWIW, 12 Para Euro pretty much mimics the op

I tossed the euro the second I heard it was drier than other guidance. Just tossed the para euro now too. We good. 

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Just now, Deck Pic said:

18z GFS drier than 12z

the GFS has gone down the toilet since last nights run 18z run. It couldnt handle being the snowiest model

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2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

And warmer too for DC. 850s knocking on the door at 12z.

yeah...just looked...there is a warm nose at 15z.  Verbatim, DCA would probably flip at like 9-10, but likely some mixing before then

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4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

mLzWtXE.png

Is that drier than previous runs? 

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It's definitely wetter...
Suppose to be higher resolution and better with thermals. Im sold

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