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nj2va

Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs

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Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

NWS Likes the NAM though. Not a good feeling. I've seen this movie--like seven times this year. 

Yep

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28 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said:
00Z IAD sounding showed a warm nose of 1.8C at the 809 mb 
level. This is around 1C warmer than what most of the 18Z models
initialized. The 18Z Canadian Regional had the best 
initialization of the 18Z guidance with a warm nose around 1C 
with the 00Z NAM now having caught up to the warmer air aloft. 
Although, there is a lot of dry air at that level which would 
result in wet-bulb cooling once precip arrives, the trend in the
models has been for a faster changeover to mixed precip Thu
morning. Will be incorporating more of the 00Z NAM and 18Z
Canadian Regional in our update tonight. These two models have
verified the best with temps aloft this winter, especially with
the mid December 2020 and Feb 10 mixed precip events. 

There has also been a trend toward a faster exit of the
precipitation late Thu night across the region with precip only
lingering across southern MD and in the upslope areas.

09c.gif

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Besides the NAM nest (and the parent NAM, but I'm focusing on hi-res), the HiResW ARW and ARW2 this evening both also favor the earlier transition to sleet.     The HRRR and the HiResW NMMB are both snowier, but they both tend to be too snowy in these setups.     I won't abandon hope since the forecasted soundings are walking such a tightrope with the warm layers, but I don't like what I've seen so far from the 00z suite for a healthy snow accumulation in most of the area.

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Just now, high risk said:

Besides the NAM nest (and the parent NAM, but I'm focusing on hi-res), the HiResW ARW and ARW2 this evening both also favor the earlier transition to sleet.     The HRRR and the HiResW NMMB are both snowier, but they both tend to be too snowy in these setups.     I won't abandon hope since the forecasted soundings are walking such a tightrope with the warm layers, but I don't like what I've seen so far from the 00z suite for a healthy snow accumulation in most of the area.

And the HRRR is DRY. Wow. 

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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

And the HRRR is DRY. Wow. 

      I've learned to not ebb and flow too much with the hourly HRRR runs in winter precip.     There always seems to be lots of run-to-run fluctuation with precip amounts.    

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Just now, high risk said:

      I've learned to not ebb and flow too much with the hourly HRRR runs in winter precip.     There always seems to be lots of run-to-run fluctuation with precip amounts.    

HRRR did a poor job on the sleet/snow line Saturday consistently showing snow over the western suburbs of DC 

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26 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Not sure what you mean.

No, everything looks on track for what most every area in the forum was expecting from the midday runs. 

I hadn't checked since last night :( - medium snow dog

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

RGEM is a sleet bomb for everyone. Followed by some nice back end snow to the nw of the cities tomorrow night. Concrete for Saturday morning. 

It looks like some oscillating between sleet/snow in the heavy precip.  Should be fun for sure. 

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12 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

HRRR did a poor job on the sleet/snow line Saturday consistently showing snow over the western suburbs of DC 

Haha oh trust me I know firsthand. 

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

RGEM is a sleet bomb for everyone. Followed by some nice back end snow to the nw of the cities tomorrow night. Concrete for Saturday morning. 

So no change on the RGEM.

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16 minutes ago, high risk said:

      I've learned to not ebb and flow too much with the hourly HRRR runs in winter precip.     There always seems to be lots of run-to-run fluctuation with precip amounts.    

Yeah I know from many storms. In Yonkers back in 2014 there was a pretty big snow to rain event. At the tail end of the event it showed temps plummeting with a massive backend thump. An hour or two later temps had reached the upper 50s and it was pouring rain.   

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4” is my mark, 6 or above is gravy. These storms turn over earlier than progged, so here’s to hoping that precip comes in like a bat out of hell. 

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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

RGEM is a sleet bomb for everyone. Followed by some nice back end snow to the nw of the cities tomorrow night. Concrete for Saturday morning. 

No way that sounding produces sleet here. Perhaps rimed flakes.

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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I’m feeling confident of a GFS rug pull with the para trying to hold onto some hope. 

The precip is already evident on the radar and it will be frozen in some form for basically the entire area.  No need to talk about rug pulls; it’s gonna precipitate. 

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There's going to be heavy precip falling into temps in the 20s. The line between snow vs sleet looks to be setting up where it would normally set up for this region. But very heavy precip. Sweating the EXACT placement of the sleet on tonight's models seems a bit...wasteful? 

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Pretty interesting that we are basically on the doorstep of go time and we aren't really sure what's about to happen 

I actually find it kind of thrilling.  It's like the slots or a scratch off.  We could pull 777.  Or paid $25 for that scratch off ticket and win $1 (aka putting in 40 hours of tracking for a 15 minute burst of heavy snow, non accumulating sleet and dry slot).

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Trying to catch up--- NAM stinks, no NAM is good, it is drying up, no models have held serve. GFS is going to screw us. . . maybe not.  3 inches of. . .snow? sleet?   This is not a hobby for the faint of heart

Quick question-- is this a miller A?  Or maybe a miller A/B?   I know we haven't had a classic Miller A for some time. . . 

still no cloud cover. . . 25/18.8

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I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking.  I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance.  Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount.  I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance.  

SnowfallMap2.thumb.png.58cdeb5b79287f302ce3a4d864b4bb4a.png

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I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking.  I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance.  Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount.  I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance.  
SnowfallMap2.thumb.png.58cdeb5b79287f302ce3a4d864b4bb4a.png

I like the way you think

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