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nj2va

Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs

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The short range models at 18z have been abysmal with what has transpired in western Tennessee and Kentucky. Their radar presentation isn’t close to reality.

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Per the legend on the left, mixed layer parcel which I know nothing about. 

Okay so per the sounding above, that would be sleet FZR? Because they saturate the column pretty far into above freezing territory? 

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Per the legend on the left, mixed layer parcel which I know nothing about. 

It’s not that hard to understand. There are parcels. They are mixed. In layers. 
 

You’re welcome

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HRRR is showing thunder snow and sleet. IR satellite shows the high cloud tops associated with it

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_15.png

 

hrrr_ir_neus_16.png

 

(I'm kidding but maybe not. Full weenie mode tonight)

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5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's been pretty insane. I'll have to recap everything at some point. It's historic in many aspects for my area. I'm out in west TX btw, between Abilene and El Paso!

Nice, are you going to catch any of the goods tomorrow? That band is pushing into Mexico for f's sake.

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14 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

So I'm finally learning how to read soundings. The temps at different heights are still hard to grasp. What am I looking at with the blue dotted temp line? Does it follow those red lines? Because that would be pretty warm upstairs but that has to be wrong...

Here is a really useful resource on interpreting skew-t/log p charts. https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a221842.pdf

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The short range models at 18z have been abysmal with what has transpired in western Tennessee and Kentucky. Their radar presentation isn’t close to reality.

WAA Snow waits for no man...or model

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

HRRR is showing thunder snow and sleet. IR satellite shows the high cloud tops associated with it

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_15.png

 

hrrr_ir_neus_16.png

 

(I'm kidding but maybe not. Full weenie mode tonight)

I see discreet cells embedded in those dark blues. Could get sleetnadoes. 
 

29.7/17

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Been very busy today, but around Baltimore is it fair to expect snow to start around 6-7 AM, get moderate/heavy between like 7-10 AM, then mix with/change to sleet in the late morning, before pretty much wrapping up in the early to mid afternoon? 

That's kind of the impression I got from the last NAM run I saw. Wasn't sure what the feeling was in here about how much precipitation falls anytime after early afternoon tomorrow. 

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4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Okay so per the sounding above, that would be sleet FZR? Because they saturate the column pretty far into above freezing territory? 

This should answer all your questions. Soundings are ELI5'd all over the web. Lets keep that stuff out of here

https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/skewt_samples#:~:text=As snow falls into the,A typical "Sleet" sounding.

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6 minutes ago, H2O said:

It’s not that hard to understand. There are parcels. They are mixed. In layers. 
 

You’re welcome

Shaken, not stirred?

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Anybody else notice 18z initializations versus ground reality are not really all that close? Rain snow line and precip shield don’t line up whatsoever with current obs. (Correct me if I’m wrong please)

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Just now, Snowchaser said:

I’m at my cabin in snowshoe WV. I’m expecting a crazy night. Hopefully will see some big fatties :snowing: 

And hopefully some snow too :jerry:

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4 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

I’m at my cabin in snowshoe WV. I’m expecting a crazy night. Hopefully will see some big fatties :snowing: 

There will certainly be a few fatties falling there tomorrow. There will likely be some snow too

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1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

Been very busy today, but around Baltimore is it fair to expect snow to start around 6-7 AM, get moderate/heavy between like 7-10 AM, then mix with/change to sleet in the late morning, before pretty much wrapping up in the early to mid afternoon? 

That's kind of the impression I got from the last NAM run I saw. Wasn't sure what the feeling was in here about how much precipitation falls anytime after early afternoon tomorrow. 

Yep. That’s a very reasonable assumption based on the guidance 

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Shaken, not stirred?

No. I’m calm. I might be shaken tomorrow if the HRRRRRRRRRRR fails me. 
 

starting to get cloudy. Need temps down moar 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Anybody else notice 18z initializations versus ground reality are not really all that close? Rain snow line and precip shield don’t line up whatsoever with current obs  

Amen.Not even close. And the latest hrrr isn’t too spot on either

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