BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 18 1 minute ago, mappy said: Per the legend on the left, mixed layer parcel which I know nothing about. I believe it's the environment a parcel would experience as it travels through the atmosphere. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18 The short range models at 18z have been abysmal with what has transpired in western Tennessee and Kentucky. Their radar presentation isn’t close to reality. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Per the legend on the left, mixed layer parcel which I know nothing about. Okay so per the sounding above, that would be sleet FZR? Because they saturate the column pretty far into above freezing territory? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 18 Corona in hand, alarm set. 31/15 in College Park MD. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
H2O Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Per the legend on the left, mixed layer parcel which I know nothing about. It’s not that hard to understand. There are parcels. They are mixed. In layers. You’re welcome 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob Chill Posted February 18 HRRR is showing thunder snow and sleet. IR satellite shows the high cloud tops associated with it (I'm kidding but maybe not. Full weenie mode tonight) 2 3 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It's been pretty insane. I'll have to recap everything at some point. It's historic in many aspects for my area. I'm out in west TX btw, between Abilene and El Paso! Nice, are you going to catch any of the goods tomorrow? That band is pushing into Mexico for f's sake. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 18 14 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: So I'm finally learning how to read soundings. The temps at different heights are still hard to grasp. What am I looking at with the blue dotted temp line? Does it follow those red lines? Because that would be pretty warm upstairs but that has to be wrong... Here is a really useful resource on interpreting skew-t/log p charts. https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a221842.pdf Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SnowGolfBro Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The short range models at 18z have been abysmal with what has transpired in western Tennessee and Kentucky. Their radar presentation isn’t close to reality. WAA Snow waits for no man...or model 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
H2O Posted February 18 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: HRRR is showing thunder snow and sleet. IR satellite shows the high cloud tops associated with it (I'm kidding but maybe not. Full weenie mode tonight) I see discreet cells embedded in those dark blues. Could get sleetnadoes. 29.7/17 4 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Snowchaser Posted February 18 I’m at my cabin in snowshoe WV. I’m expecting a crazy night. Hopefully will see some big fatties 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Steve25 Posted February 18 Been very busy today, but around Baltimore is it fair to expect snow to start around 6-7 AM, get moderate/heavy between like 7-10 AM, then mix with/change to sleet in the late morning, before pretty much wrapping up in the early to mid afternoon? That's kind of the impression I got from the last NAM run I saw. Wasn't sure what the feeling was in here about how much precipitation falls anytime after early afternoon tomorrow. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob Chill Posted February 18 4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Okay so per the sounding above, that would be sleet FZR? Because they saturate the column pretty far into above freezing territory? This should answer all your questions. Soundings are ELI5'd all over the web. Lets keep that stuff out of here https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/skewt_samples#:~:text=As snow falls into the,A typical "Sleet" sounding. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wxdude64 Posted February 18 29.7/18.9 here after a 37.4 high 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MillvilleWx Posted February 18 6 minutes ago, H2O said: It’s not that hard to understand. There are parcels. They are mixed. In layers. You’re welcome Shaken, not stirred? 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jayyy Posted February 18 Anybody else notice 18z initializations versus ground reality are not really all that close? Rain snow line and precip shield don’t line up whatsoever with current obs. (Correct me if I’m wrong please) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SnowGolfBro Posted February 18 Just now, Snowchaser said: I’m at my cabin in snowshoe WV. I’m expecting a crazy night. Hopefully will see some big fatties And hopefully some snow too 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mbusada Posted February 18 26.8/16 in Lothian,MD Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ovechkin Posted February 18 DCA under freezing at 31 already entering a storm and the Wiz are going for 3 in a row. What a time to be alive. 1 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MillvilleWx Posted February 18 4 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: I’m at my cabin in snowshoe WV. I’m expecting a crazy night. Hopefully will see some big fatties There will certainly be a few fatties falling there tomorrow. There will likely be some snow too 1 6 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baltimorewx Posted February 18 1 minute ago, Steve25 said: Been very busy today, but around Baltimore is it fair to expect snow to start around 6-7 AM, get moderate/heavy between like 7-10 AM, then mix with/change to sleet in the late morning, before pretty much wrapping up in the early to mid afternoon? That's kind of the impression I got from the last NAM run I saw. Wasn't sure what the feeling was in here about how much precipitation falls anytime after early afternoon tomorrow. Yep. That’s a very reasonable assumption based on the guidance Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
H2O Posted February 18 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Shaken, not stirred? No. I’m calm. I might be shaken tomorrow if the HRRRRRRRRRRR fails me. starting to get cloudy. Need temps down moar 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EB89 Posted February 18 FCPS Maryland is closed tomorrow. No virtual teaching. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Here is a really useful resource on interpreting skew-t/log p charts. https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a221842.pdf Wow this is a trove. Thanks. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Anybody else notice 18z initializations versus ground reality are not really all that close? Rain snow line and precip shield don’t line up whatsoever with current obs Amen.Not even close. And the latest hrrr isn’t too spot on either Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This should answer all your questions. Soundings are ELI5'd all over the web. Lets keep that stuff out of here https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/skewt_samples#:~:text=As snow falls into the,A typical "Sleet" sounding. Yeah I don't want the See Spot Run version. Thanks! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
