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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs


nj2va
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The Hill of Doom in Arlington had two plow trucks going uphill, plowing in my side of the street.

I wondered what pull some neighbors on the other side have with the county.

But then a third truck went down the hill and plowed them in...

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Just now, ErinInTheSky said:

LOL YES! They plowed! Oh my god I feel bad for these folks but when this sleet bomb hardens tonight, it's going to be impossible to get through it.

I quickly shoveled the sleet bank away from my car's path.

sKq5teU.jpg

Gotta leave the snow wall there. Its an excuse for a Friday off. 

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40 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

HRRR shows ZR and snow blossoming over the area by like 5 or 6z tonight. 

That second batch blossoms into a massive area of pixie dust.  I have a feeling it will overperform somewhere.  Unfortunately   NJ/NYC/NE  might steal it from us again.  It's too light and moves through to quick for us to really have a shot at anything significant.

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59 minutes ago, Ji said:

its pretty cool that we had 2 chances in this storm just like we did last week. the first chance--was sleet and 25 and the 2nd chance looks like it wont happen. I love how we maximize our potential!

It’s not getting enough attention the fact wave 2 was on all guidance at 0 and 6z and most at 12z then just totally failed. It was a consensus .2-.3 qpf. Imagine if that was it...we would have been tracking a 1-3” snow that totally evaporated to nothing 12 hours out. Guidance is really struggling right now. It’s understandable to have shifts like that from 48 hours on out but they are struggling with things in nowcast even. 

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not getting about attention the fact wave 2 was on all guidance at 0 and 6z and most at 12z then just totally failed. It was a consensus .2-.3 qpf. Imagine if that was it...we would have been tracking a 1-3” snow that totally evaporated to nothing 12 hours out. Guidance is really struggling right now. It’s understandable to have shifts like that from 48 hours on out but they are struggling with things in nowcast even. 

In a winter where guidance has consistently struggled... I’m still stunned by the divergence between the gfs/para and really all of the other models (although most now depict a tenth of inch of qpf). 18z GFS shows a really nasty ice storm overnight. 

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Ok, I’ll bite on this “event” for educational purposes. Why would it be ice overnight? Winds are out of the north, I don’t see a screaming south wind or jet steak like last night at the mid levels. What am I not seeing? For the record, my guess is this is a whole lot of nothing regardless of what might fall if anything. 

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5 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Ok, I’ll bite on this “event” for educational purposes. Why would it be ice overnight? Winds are out of the north, I don’t see a screaming south wind or jet steak like last night at the mid levels. What am I not seeing? For the record, my guess is this is a whole lot of nothing regardless of what might fall if anything. 

IAD soundings showed a +1c warm layer between 800-825 leading up to that storm. The surface was plenty cold - it hit 20 here last night - but the cold wasn’t deep enough for all layers to get below freezing all the way into the metros.  We didn’t have the dynamics in place or mid level lows closing to our south to keep the mid levels at  bay. I  experienced freezing rain in sub 20-25 degree conditions multiple times up in NY. It sucks man. 

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

IAD soundings showed a +1c warm layer between 800-825 leading up to that storm. The surface was plenty cold - it hit 20 here last night - but the cold wasn’t deep enough for all layers to get below freezing all the way into the metros.  We didn’t have the dynamics in place or mid level lows closing to our south to keep the mid levels at  bay. I  experienced freezing rain in sub 20-25 degree conditions multiple times up in NY. It sucks man. 

I mean for potentially overnight tonight. 

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7 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Ok, I’ll bite on this “event” for educational purposes. Why would it be ice overnight? Winds are out of the north, I don’t see a screaming south wind or jet steak like last night at the mid levels. What am I not seeing? For the record, my guess is this is a whole lot of nothing regardless of what might fall if anything. 

The mid level winds are still out of the southwest...the screaming tropical jet has passed though...so that could be easily overcome and the warm layer mixed out if there was any moderate to heavy precip...but extremely light precip won't be able to mix out the left over pockets of mid level warmth lingering and the SW winds aloft wont help scour it out either.  If we actually do get some decent banding of legit precip I bet it would change to snow.  

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29 and cloudy.

Looks like some weak lift overnight will result in very light precip- probably mostly freezing drizzle. Then lets see what happens tomorrow morning with the weak wave. Probably anything 'significant' will be right along the coast or offshore(and mostly to the NE), but guidance is not in good agreement. Whatever happens it should be pretty light.

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8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Trajectory is bad. Pittsburgh is stealing our bands. 

Some Guidance has precip developing to our SW and heading this direction by 0z. Looks like it’s changing back to snow pretty easily under heavier banding out west. I’m sure something will ruin it, but hey, I’ll root for a quick additional inch or two, why not… 

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