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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs


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3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Not sure if this will end up being meaningful in any way but neither NAM or HRRR appears to have initialized with that band of precip in Tennessee. 

Edit: newest HRRR has it but it looks much weaker than it does in real life.

TWC claims that band is heading right for our area. 

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29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Watch the activity on the back end turn everything into an ice palace tonight and we somehow trip into an ice storm.

Never know the way things have been going. This is the reason why I am not bothering to shovel this sleet mess. Just gonna be a sheet of ice later and may as well wait with temps expected above freezing tomorrow. Not going anywhere anyways and easier to walk the dog on the crunchy stuff.

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

In all seriousness. Look at this panel. Then go look at the radar down in the TN area. The HRRR is clearly underdoing that precip. May mean nothing. But we'll see. 

ref1km_ptype.conus.png

Haha, that’s my thinking. If it can’t get right now right, how’s it gonna be right with what it’s showing later

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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

In all seriousness. Look at this panel. Then go look at the radar down in the TN area. The HRRR is clearly underdoing that precip. May mean nothing. But we'll see. 

ref1km_ptype.conus.png

If you look at the total qpf panels from the short range models and the nam nest, it looks like even at 18z they average just under a tenth inch of qpf basically areawide (ice/snow) overnight. Def a misty/freezing drizzle type look either way.

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2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

They haven't even bothered to plow my parking lot. It's gonna be nasty when this all turns to concrete.

They tried to plow my street in dc (there is a fire station on our street) and failed miserably. Honestly they just made it worse.

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Just now, wkd said:

On the Nam or GFS,  looking at the "positive snow depth change" usually is much more realistic but not as fun to look at.

That works until it doesn’t lol. When there is an actual snow event it will almost always under forecast  totals.

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Just now, chris21 said:

They tried to plow my street in dc (there is a fire station on our street) and failed miserably. Honestly they just made it worse.

Yup hahahaha I was actually hoping they would to see the hilarity that ensues. The sleet banks they make end up crusting into straight ice and trapping all the cars. Looks like they learned their lesson.

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