Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs


nj2va
 Share

Recommended Posts

this was a pretty unusual storm.  i think most forecasters busted because, let's face it, most storms start as snow and then switch to sleet.  having sleet essentially from the onset with ideal surface temps even during quality rates goes against the "precip cooling the column" science.  i haven't read every post and haven't really dived into the soundings, but there was obviously a pronounced warm layer that was either thin/warm or marginal/thick.  not sure...maybe others know.  either way, i don't think the atlantic has helped...it seems to have either caused the trough to be too far west too often or is just a response to other variables.  this one was absolutely a bust, but it was pretty understandable why any forecaster would have gone against sleet from start to finish.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Possibly. But we could also just keep model discussion in model discussion threads and then start a storm relative thread a day before they actually start. There’s never just one way of doing things. Doing things because that’s always the way they have been done is probably the worst rationale ever.

That works when we have one threat to track....but it gets really confusing when we have multiple threats being discusses all in one thread.  But I am ok whatever we do.  It never bothered me having multiple discussions in a thread....but it seemed to drive others crazy.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

You know I just looked out the window and it's flurrying tiny flakes lightly falling. I think this counts as cruel and unusual punishment. Though why can we get flurries now when I got a half inch of sleet earlier? What caused the atmosphere to cool down? 

I would assume the fact that the storm is departing and so is the upper level low, therefore the flow shifts more northly rather than southerly...in some cases the warm nose goes away.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, jayyy said:

The northern tier likely came the closest. The Winchester to Manchester area saw very heavy banding for about 8 hours under those bands. My guess is that we are above 0.8” QPF going off of 10:1 ratios. If ratios were lower, then we saw even more than that. 

I measured 5.5" of pretty much all snow when I first got up and shoveled off my "measuring spot".  Since then I got 2.5" of half snow/sleet mix for a total of 8" of frozen that fell but the depth everywhere is still only 6.5" due to compacting from the weight of the ice on top of the snow.    But lets assume the 5.5" had higher ratios so is like .45 qpf.  But the 2.5" since is VERY low ratio lets say 5-1 so best guess I was close to 1" qpf up here under that banding...which makes sense because that is what all the guidance said the qpf would be only they had that band along 95 near DC not up here.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...