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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs


nj2va
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Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

It literally rained 95% of the time for wave one. I mean the models have been just....so, so, so bad. And the pros, while way better than the models in aggregate, have incorporated them into their forecasts too much. They were onto something last night but didn't have the confidence considering the strength of guidance. 

It really has felt like a the models have been gaslighting us more than usual this year.  As of like 36 hours the GEFS was trending better every run and had pink down into the metro areas. 

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Do I have to go back to when we were only 48 hours out and post those trend gifs showing EVERYTHING with 6" plus for DC and Baltimore and trending better EVERY run?  Yea it immediately started to fall apart after that and by last night signs were this could go down this way...but this one has to hurt even more because it was trending better until about 48 hours out...all the others looked really good at like 100 hours but the slow bleed to fail started much earlier.  This one actually looked good at 48 hours and then fell apart.   Just because I was worried about the mid level warm layer...and I am not shocked it ended up killing a lot of people's snow dreams...doesn't mean I wasn't hopeful this one would be different and work out.  You don't find it amazing that we keep getting "decent" chances and they ALL break the wrong way for 95?  

LOL, no you definitely don't, I remember it well. I've been on here every day for weeks. When the trends stopped going in the right direction and models were still all over the place with the mix line I lowered my expectations quite a bit. This may be me seeing things that aren't there, but what I've noticed the past few years with setups where large amounts of sleet/zr are forecast is the 3k NAM tends to do pretty damn well with placing that feature. I think it was the late March 2018 storm where it was honking for sleet to move in much faster than most other guidance and sure enough... DC was forecast for something like 6-8" before the flip and ended up with about 1" of snow and 2" of sleet.

On your second point, I do find it pretty amazing. I've argued that our base state isn't what it used to be on here before.

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10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Okay...so why is that? We can't get the trough over us...why? Bad roll of the dice?

My brave second post - I would like to understand the dynamics a bit better myself.  I get the surface low does NOT dictate frozen precipitation.  I try to follow along with the "mets" discussing warm meso's and such, but I would really like this storm broken down in layman's terms.  

I am a long time lurker and I rarely post, but I enjoy following the winter storms!

Thanks

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I went with 2-5" along 95.  At the time with all the doom posting about the NAM's showing no snow I kind of considered that a positive bust.  Even that looks high though, although remember sleet accumulation counts.  But I really thought with heavier banding it would mix with snow enough...but the heavy banding (again) set up NW of 95 so that didn't work out.  It was close...you can see during some of the heavy banding places pretty far SE did mix with snow.  I wanted to be optimistic.  Figured we were due for something to break good for once.  I was wrong about that.  But my "fear" all along for what could wreck this turned out to be correct.  Even up here I have mixed with a lot of sleet and its holding down accumulations.  

It's all because you did that centimeter thing....Leesburg 04 will never forget :hurrbear:

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11 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Definitely. 7-9” will be common in our area. Def. a shame that sleet made its way in so quickly. No doubt we would have flirted with a foot if it hadn’t. 4-730am was some of the best winter weather I’ve ever seen, and I lived in both Buffalo and the Hudson valley in NY for many years. Damn you warm layer. Sorry to the southern crew :( Just cannot catch a dang break. 

Wonder if the population of Union Bridge will be picking up with the mass exodus of AmericanWx Weenies from the big Cities, lol!

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13 minutes ago, PSWired said:

Where in Annapolis are you? Here in Bay Ridge I've only got ~3/4" of accumulation. Looks like I've been in a dry slot, but that might change here in a few minutes.

I'm a bit farther west than you. 

Sleet bomb continues here. Measurements in the grass range from 1.2-1.8" or so. 

sleet bomb.png

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Looks like about 1.5" of snow and mostly sleet. I said this morning how the radar to the SW looks like nothing but scattered light activity after the main band. I got roasted and here we are at 11:15 with reports of sunshine. I guess some people don't like reality mention on here lol. Another bust. Amazing. I will say the sleet is cool to walk in.

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0.9" of pure sleet here in McLean. The sandy nature of it is at least interesting. Don't remember Feb 2007 so this is just about the most sleet I've seen in any given event. Pretty paltry total, but we knew what kind of fire we were playing with in this given setup. Still, I'm glad peeps in the NW sections of this subforum cashed in pretty well. Especially the far western members so far this season. I know the past few Ninas have screwed you guys pretty bad (especially 17-18), so seeing multiple events break your guys' way is at least a positive. 

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