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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs


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1 minute ago, WVsnowlover said:

Looks like about another 30 minutes of sleet here. How are we looking for a possible 2nd round this evening? Is that still a thing?

NAMS have very light, showery mixed precip through the night out our way. Not much in the way of additional accumulations though. 

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2 minutes ago, TSG said:

I mean I understand why people are frustrated but there were signs everywhere that this was a marginal setup with big bust potential. We didn't have anything close to model consensus even 24 hrs out.. The 3k NAM was showing pretty much exactly what's happening right now yesterday morning. A little stronger/snowier on the front end thump, but it had mixed sleet/snow already spreading up to NE MD starting at like sunrise.

Do I have to go back to when we were only 48 hours out and post those trend gifs showing EVERYTHING with 6" plus for DC and Baltimore and trending better EVERY run?  Yea it immediately started to fall apart after that and by last night signs were this could go down this way...but this one has to hurt even more because it was trending better until about 48 hours out...all the others looked really good at like 100 hours but the slow bleed to fail started much earlier.  This one actually looked good at 48 hours and then fell apart.   Just because I was worried about the mid level warm layer...and I am not shocked it ended up killing a lot of people's snow dreams...doesn't mean I wasn't hopeful this one would be different and work out.  You don't find it amazing that we keep getting "decent" chances and they ALL break the wrong way for 95?  

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7 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said:

Looks like about another 30 minutes of sleet here. How are we looking for a possible 2nd round this evening? Is that still a thing?

NWS forecast is for an inch additional.  latest models suggest we have a light mix later which transitions to snow.  I'm not counting on it, but another inch would be nice.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Do I have to go back to when we were only 48 hours out and post those trend gifs showing EVERYTHING with 6" plus for DC and Baltimore and trending better EVERY run?  Yea it immediately started to fall apart after that and by last night signs were this could go down this way...but this one has to hurt even more because it was trending better until about 48 hours out...all the others looked really good at like 100 hours but the slow bleed to fail started much earlier.  This one actually looked good at 48 hours and then fell apart.   Just because I was worried about the mid level warm layer...and I am not shocked it ended up killing a lot of people's snow dreams...doesn't mean I wasn't hopeful this one would be different and work out.  You don't find it amazing that we keep getting "decent" chances and they ALL break the wrong way for 95?  

And yet Texas gets snow...Seattle gets snow. Explain that, lol

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Do I have to go back to when we were only 48 hours out and post those trend gifs showing EVERYTHING with 6" plus for DC and Baltimore and trending better EVERY run?  Yea it immediately started to fall apart after that and by last night signs were this could go down this way...but this one has to hurt even more because it was trending better until about 48 hours out...all the others looked really good at like 100 hours but the slow bleed to fail started much earlier.  This one actually looked good at 48 hours and then fell apart.   Just because I was worried about the mid level warm layer...and I am not shocked it ended up killing a lot of people's snow dreams...doesn't mean I wasn't hopeful this one would be different and work out.  You don't find it amazing that we keep getting "decent" chances and they ALL break the wrong way for 95?  

You are an amazing forecaster and I’ve learned a ton from your posts and appreciate your insights a ton, but you did say yesterday to expect a positive bust in the immediate metro this time, no?

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Do I have to go back to when we were only 48 hours out and post those trend gifs showing EVERYTHING with 6" plus for DC and Baltimore and trending better EVERY run?  Yea it immediately started to fall apart after that and by last night signs were this could go down this way...but this one has to hurt even more because it was trending better until about 48 hours out...all the others looked really good at like 100 hours but the slow bleed to fail started much earlier.  This one actually looked good at 48 hours and then fell apart.   Just because I was worried about the mid level warm layer...and I am not shocked it ended up killing a lot of people's snow dreams...doesn't mean I wasn't hopeful this one would be different and work out.  You don't find it amazing that we keep getting "decent" chances and they ALL break the wrong way for 95?  

Literally EVERYTHING was trending well for this and then we get enough crap thermals that it wrecks the setup. Just one of those years I guess. There will (hopefully) be years where we go the other way and score more often. Based on the last couple years just happy to have a chance ... that's moving in the right direction.

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

And yet Texas gets snow...Seattle gets snow. Explain that, lol

i think the general theme for the past few years has been most of the trough has been in the central US or Western US. So when that happens....places like Texas will end up doing better than us. We really didnt get any of the arctic air that Lousiana got,etc

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Just now, Ji said:

i think the general theme for the past few years has been most of the trough has been in the central US or Western US. So when that happens....places like Texas will end up doing better than us. We really didnt get any of the arctic air that Lousiana got,etc

Okay...so why is that? We can't get the trough over us...why? Bad roll of the dice?

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