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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs


nj2va
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
920 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021
(snip)
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9:15 AM UPDATE: Significant changes to the snowfall forecast
since the previous update. Warm air aloft has moved into the
region very quickly, albeit a very small layer that can be seen
in the 12z IAD RAOB. The warm layer is between 850-775mb, with a
max temp of around 1.5 C. Unfortunately for snow lovers, that
is all it really takes to change snow to sleet. This has
drastically reduced snow totals, as the heavier rates have yet
to overcome that small warm layer, which is somewhat surprising.
Very sharp gradient, with highest snow totals along/north of
I-70 and along/west of I-81. Have even seen some freezing rain
creep into the forecast area much earlier than anticipated,
which is rather concerning.

The general synoptic setup is no different than previously
described, with high pressure to our northeast, and low pressure
sliding by to our south. The warm advection aloft just won out
today, resulting in the lower totals thus far, as sleet just
doesn`t accumulate at the same rate as snow. That being said,
the impacts are the same, with sleet/freezing rain leading to
hazardous travel conditions across the region. So, just because
snow totals haven`t panned out in some places this morning,
still exercise caution when going out and about today.
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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Do you have selective thinking or something? Or were you asleep six hours before the storm? 

Some of you act like you're in high school. 

Not trying to be a jerk but the NAM was absolute trash with this storm. It drove a primary up almost into Ohio 3 days ago. 

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This NAM?

snku_acc.us_ma.png

Way to pick out the worst run of the NAM at its longest range lol. What was king euro showing at that range, 10" of snow for MoCo?

 

The NAM had this down even 2 days ago. As of last night the Euro was still giving the region widespread 5" of snow.

 

Put another way... I've been hugging the NAM this entire event and I'm not bummed out at all. This has actually been a fun one to track and I'm getting in my yard exactly what I expected.

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This NAM?

snku_acc.us_ma.png

Maybe you don't understand the context. The pros said they were favoring the NAM. I mentioned this as a potential indicator of problems with our forecast. Some people jumped down my throat. Seems like you've joined the people who choose hostility because it doesn't show snow--but it's particularly strange because it's not even your backyard. 

Would be nice if I didn't have to present the rosiest outlook regardless. If you're not a red tagger here or part of some old school clique, you're not allowed to say certain things. Period. Hence, high school. 

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