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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs


nj2va
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Forecasts have definitely improved over the years. There were countless busts in the 90s due to similar setups or just flat out undermodeled downsloping, etc. If anything, it’s impressive that the nam was so intent and correct about the mix line. Globals have improved at 5 day leads but there’s clearly still some areas for improvement in these types of fringe setups.

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Just now, 87storms said:

Forecasts have definitely improved over the years. There were countless busts in the 90s due to similar setups or just flat out undermodeled downsloping, etc. If anything, it’s impressive that the nam was so intent and correct about the mix line. Globals have improved at 5 day leads but there’s clearly still some areas for improvement in these types of fringe setups.

Yeah the biggest bust that comes to mind was Jan 25, 2000.  Of course that was great for snow lovers!

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Just now, 87storms said:

Forecasts have definitely improved over the years. There were countless busts in the 90s due to similar setups or just flat out undermodeled downsloping, etc. If anything, it’s impressive that the nam was so intent and correct about the mix line. Global have improved at 5 day leads but there’s clearly still some areas for improvement in these types of fringe setups.

I think people just need to start putting more stock into seasonal trends.  Every winter event this year, at least in DC, has featured a quicker flip to mix and less snow than models suggested.  In other years, however, it seemed like every winter event went the other direction, where snow hung on longer and forecasts were always busting a bit low. 

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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Forecasts have definitely improved over the years. There were countless busts in the 90s due to similar setups or just flat out undermodeled downsloping, etc. If anything, it’s impressive that the nam was so intent and correct about the mix line. Globals have improved at 5 day leads but there’s clearly still some areas for improvement in these types of fringe setups.

The column on the globals was super borderline. We just collectively chose to ignore the possibility that they might be a smidge too cold.

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