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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs


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2 minutes ago, high risk said:

the GFS has a remarkable amount of precip fall after 18z tomorrow along and east of I-95 (including a crazy amount of ice), but it's alone on an island.   The NAM is at the other end of the extremes with perhaps the GFS para offering a more realistic middle ground (and more of a light sleet to light snow for most of us scenario, instead of freezing rain)

My worry is that the pros at NWS are favoring the NAM. 

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Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

My worry is that the pros at NWS are favoring the NAM. 

lol...what are you worried about? you think the pros are going to make it sleet instead of snow? Nobody really knows whats going to happen except that its not going to snow

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5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Going old school all day today. Why stop!? The only model anyone needs....the good old Weather Channel! That’s how the world used to roll...and we liked it! All this model chaos. Pfft!! Turn the TV on and what they say goes! 5-8!?  Yup. It’s happening Ron Paul! It’s happening. :lol:
 

Eta: this is what happens when you try to dent your beer fridge. See you at 4am first flakers. 
 

 

 

Interested what's 'historic' about this storm other than it'll be 'history' in about 36 hours?:D

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6 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

Biggest takeaway from that is the mid-levels are about a degree warmer which is not a good sign. Being drier does mean more radiation cooling so while it’s not a bad thing, doesn’t mean much if the 850s torch. 

True...but from the sounding the extreme dry layer coincides with the warm layer.  There is a really warm but dry layer around h8.  But my point was if the NAM had that layer at 0C at 60% humidity and in reality it was +1.5C with 40% humidity...in the end the wet bulb temp (which is what really matters) is about the same so the error seems insignificant imo compared to the press its getting.  

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11 minutes ago, Ji said:

the longer part is hard to buy so alot of that qpf that Matt posted could be fake phase 2 stuff

the primary track is trending south across all guidance right now...and that could very well activate the lingering boundary through our area Thursday evening/night.  I doubt we get anything heavy but could tack on some additional accumulations if the precip is heavy enough to mix out the warm layers left over.  

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Imo- models have already set the boundaries and they cant replicate exact weather. Especially with riding such a tightrope with ptypes. Models arent all over the place either. There is a common theme through all guidance with the only big question being a razor thin ptype situation for most. Real time will tell the story there.  Qpf amounts are close enough across all the models.  Instead of hanging on model runs that wiggle back and forth, just imagine how your yard does with these events and be honest lol.  You're probably right. 

The warm nose/layer before noon is pretty thin. It's also barely above freezing. 1 degree one way or the other is make or break snow/sleet. I'm in chips fall mode. A case can be made for more snow/less sleet and vice versa. We'll see soon enough

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13 minutes ago, high risk said:

the GFS has a remarkable amount of precip fall after 18z tomorrow along and east of I-95 (including a crazy amount of ice), but it's alone on an island.   The NAM is at the other end of the extremes with perhaps the GFS para offering a more realistic middle ground (and more of a light sleet to light snow for most of us scenario, instead of freezing rain)

this is stuff you usually see 3-4 days out. not 3-4 minutes out

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Just now, WEATHER53 said:

M*tt

i have not read anything for hours so will catch up but I think you say you never like it when precip shoots up into PA from our west and then curls eastward all the way to far eastern PA and well east of DC at that point!

did I get it right?

do you have that concern tonight if I did ?

I don't like it, but I don't think the forecast implications are necessarily bad since it happens so often.  

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1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

M*tt

i have not read anything for hours so will catch up but I think you say you never like it when precip shoots up into PA from our west and then curls eastward all the way to far eastern PA and well east of DC at that point!

did I get it right?

do you have that concern tonight if I did ?

only if it hits pittsburgh

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10 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Going old school all day today. Why stop!? The only model anyone needs....the good old Weather Channel! That’s how the world used to roll...and we liked it! All this model chaos. Pfft!! Turn the TV on and what they say goes! 5-8!?  Yup. It’s happening Ron Paul! It’s happening. :lol:
 

Eta: this is what happens when you try to dent your beer fridge. See you at 4am first flakers. 
 

 

DD801565-29E1-4179-8CA0-5F444A531C3F.jpeg

More old school...

image.png.1487d66b5575412678695c65f954f66f.png

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5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I'd probably blend the 18z Euro (likely too dry), the 12z Para Euro, and the 3z HRRR (running now).  Throw in the 0z Canadian which is wet and a tad warmer

I'd toss both GFS's and both NAMs......

If you tone down the mid level warm layer by like 1C the 12k NAM matches the Euro (as a slightly wetter version) pretty well actually.  

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16 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol...what are you worried about? you think the pros are going to make it sleet instead of snow? Nobody really knows whats going to happen except that its not going to snow

That doesn’t make any sense. This implies that their thinking means nothing to you. I mean unless that’s how you feel then you do you. 

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