Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs


nj2va
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, high risk said:

      I've learned to not ebb and flow too much with the hourly HRRR runs in winter precip.     There always seems to be lots of run-to-run fluctuation with precip amounts.    

HRRR did a poor job on the sleet/snow line Saturday consistently showing snow over the western suburbs of DC 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, high risk said:

      I've learned to not ebb and flow too much with the hourly HRRR runs in winter precip.     There always seems to be lots of run-to-run fluctuation with precip amounts.    

Yeah I know from many storms. In Yonkers back in 2014 there was a pretty big snow to rain event. At the tail end of the event it showed temps plummeting with a massive backend thump. An hour or two later temps had reached the upper 50s and it was pouring rain.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's going to be heavy precip falling into temps in the 20s. The line between snow vs sleet looks to be setting up where it would normally set up for this region. But very heavy precip. Sweating the EXACT placement of the sleet on tonight's models seems a bit...wasteful? 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Pretty interesting that we are basically on the doorstep of go time and we aren't really sure what's about to happen 

I actually find it kind of thrilling.  It's like the slots or a scratch off.  We could pull 777.  Or paid $25 for that scratch off ticket and win $1 (aka putting in 40 hours of tracking for a 15 minute burst of heavy snow, non accumulating sleet and dry slot).

  • Like 7
  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trying to catch up--- NAM stinks, no NAM is good, it is drying up, no models have held serve. GFS is going to screw us. . . maybe not.  3 inches of. . .snow? sleet?   This is not a hobby for the faint of heart

Quick question-- is this a miller A?  Or maybe a miller A/B?   I know we haven't had a classic Miller A for some time. . . 

still no cloud cover. . . 25/18.8

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking.  I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance.  Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount.  I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance.  

SnowfallMap2.thumb.png.58cdeb5b79287f302ce3a4d864b4bb4a.png

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
  • Haha 26
  • Confused 1
  • Sad 1
  • Weenie 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking.  I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance.  Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount.  I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance.  
SnowfallMap2.thumb.png.58cdeb5b79287f302ce3a4d864b4bb4a.png

I like the way you think
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, AACOUNTYMD said:

Trying to catch up--- NAM stinks, no NAM is good, it is drying up, no models have held serve. GFS is going to screw us. . . maybe not.  3 inches of. . .snow? sleet?   This is not a hobby for the faint of heart

Quick question-- is this a miller A?  Or maybe a miller A/B?   I know we haven't had a classic Miller A for some time. . . 

still no cloud cover. . . 25/18.8

Precip is going to be heavy in the morning. Very heavy in some spots. NW of the cities is safer for mostly snow. Near the cities is a very close call on exactly how much will be snow vs sleet. SE of the cities is probably a majority sleet. Pretty similar to many winter storms for our area. 

*Edit* I shouldn't say majority sleet. That's not a sure thing at all. But as you go NW you have the best shot for majority snow, as usual. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking.  I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance.  Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount.  I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance.  

SnowfallMap2.thumb.png.58cdeb5b79287f302ce3a4d864b4bb4a.png

Love the fine print:)

  • Like 2
  • Haha 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking.  I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance.  Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount.  I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance.  

SnowfallMap2.thumb.png.58cdeb5b79287f302ce3a4d864b4bb4a.png

Gutsy! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking.  I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance.  Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount.  I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance.  

SnowfallMap2.thumb.png.58cdeb5b79287f302ce3a4d864b4bb4a.png

PSA:  Divide by 2.54 to get 'Murcan units!! :lol:

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...