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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs


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14 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

So I'm finally learning how to read soundings. The temps at different heights are still hard to grasp. What am I looking at with the blue dotted temp line? Does it follow those red lines? Because that would be pretty warm upstairs but that has to be wrong...

Here is a really useful resource on interpreting skew-t/log p charts. https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a221842.pdf

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

HRRR is showing thunder snow and sleet. IR satellite shows the high cloud tops associated with it

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_15.png

 

hrrr_ir_neus_16.png

 

(I'm kidding but maybe not. Full weenie mode tonight)

I see discreet cells embedded in those dark blues. Could get sleetnadoes. 
 

29.7/17

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Been very busy today, but around Baltimore is it fair to expect snow to start around 6-7 AM, get moderate/heavy between like 7-10 AM, then mix with/change to sleet in the late morning, before pretty much wrapping up in the early to mid afternoon? 

That's kind of the impression I got from the last NAM run I saw. Wasn't sure what the feeling was in here about how much precipitation falls anytime after early afternoon tomorrow. 

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4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Okay so per the sounding above, that would be sleet FZR? Because they saturate the column pretty far into above freezing territory? 

This should answer all your questions. Soundings are ELI5'd all over the web. Lets keep that stuff out of here

https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/skewt_samples#:~:text=As snow falls into the,A typical "Sleet" sounding.

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1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

Been very busy today, but around Baltimore is it fair to expect snow to start around 6-7 AM, get moderate/heavy between like 7-10 AM, then mix with/change to sleet in the late morning, before pretty much wrapping up in the early to mid afternoon? 

That's kind of the impression I got from the last NAM run I saw. Wasn't sure what the feeling was in here about how much precipitation falls anytime after early afternoon tomorrow. 

Yep. That’s a very reasonable assumption based on the guidance 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

HRRR is showing thunder snow and sleet. IR satellite shows the high cloud tops associated with it

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_15.png

 

hrrr_ir_neus_16.png

 

(I'm kidding but maybe not. Full weenie mode tonight)

I like to see the mix line taking on more a SW to NE v W t E trajectory. That’s more a winning scenario for along and west of 95

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