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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs


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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Temp steadily dropping...weather app is 28 here already (clear skies are helping!)

This is really messed up. How is Baltimore outperforming me with lower temps?

31/10 Pasadena.

2020-2021 has truly turned into bizzaro world.

 

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56 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Interesting tidbits from Mount Holly AFD-

The ultimate evolution of the first southern-stream perturbation will be what is responsible for our winter weather late tonight and Thursday. A strong anticyclonic upper-level jet streak will combine with midlevel differential cyclonic vorticity advection to aid in intensifying surface low pressure from the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight to the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday afternoon. Intense warm advection atop a low-level baroclinic zone will aid in widespread precipitation to the north and northeast of the developing low. Meanwhile, a strong surface high will remain in southeast Canada, providing cold onshore flow for the northern Mid-Atlantic preceding the storm. Models are, as usual, too moist with the predecessor boundary-layer environment, with dew points a good 6-10+ degrees lower than model consensus today. This will be important in two ways. First, it is likely that low-level saturation requirements will delay precipitation onset in our CWA, with snow not likely to get going in earnest until near or just after daybreak. Second, models are likely too warm at the surface, especially during the main "thump" of precipitation during the morning hours. Sided with colder guidance here.

With models trending slightly northward with the warm-nose influence on precipitation type on Thursday, our inclination was to be a little less aggressive than consensus in this regard. No question that the strength of warm advection will be intense, likely leading to a veritable sleet storm in a good chunk of the area as the event unfolds during the day. However, there has been a tendency for higher-res guidance to be a little too aggressive in shunting the warm nose to the north this season. Of course, there has also been a tendency for northwest shifts in the snow/sleet/freezing rain geographical distributions within 24 hours of the event (playing out once again with today`s guidance). It will be quite interesting to see how the 00z solutions play out, as run-to-run variability has been diminishing confidence in the forecast for this event considerably.

It's interesting that the pros 'succumb' to gambler's fallacy. I put it in quotes because apparently these error patterns do in fact line up with real patterns for an extended winter of events. As in, mets think storms busting high on surface temps is a seasonal 'trend'. I really didn't put much stock into these types of things. 

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Just now, Deer Whisperer said:

My benchmark as well. If I get that I'll be satisfied. Don't care about totals at this point. 31.1/16.4

Of course you don't care about totals... you have already been reaped.

My benchmark is 4+ (snow only)... otherwise I may be joining you.

Judging by today's models I think it is doable.

 

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58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

My first and only call for my area is 3-4" of snow and a bunch of sleet. Once it shuts off I'm thinking 5" total of frozen stuff. Sleet will pummel and compact for sure. My plan is to measure snow at the beginning of the flip, clear the table, then measure sleet. Roads will be the worst they've been since Jan 16. Jan 19 was 11" in my yard but iirc the roads were fine. Not to mention snow distribution was all over the place so road impacts varied by the mile. Tomorrow will be a different story. 

I like this call. It's pretty in line with the pros at NWS too. I do however have more confidence in a potential high bust considering the trends in guidance at the final hour here. The key for me is temps. If we clearly start as snow and dew points have to meet as a bunch of QPF falls, it opens the window for us. It's a lot harder to get no snow from the setup than 5-6". 

You'd like to think that the closer to the event, the more accurate the modeling, but who the fark knows anymore. 

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