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February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat


NorthHillsWx
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NCZ008>010-023>025-170400-
/O.EXA.KRAH.WS.A.0002.210218T0500Z-210219T0500Z/
Granville-Vance-Warren-Alamance-Orange-Durham-
Including the cities of Oxford, Creedmoor, Henderson, Kittrell,
Warrenton, Norlina, Burlington, Graham, Mebane, Hillsborough,
Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Durham, and Rougemont
1046 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations of
  one tenth to two tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
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Just now, BullCityWx said:

Winter Storm watch expanded to now include everybody N&W of 40/85 and then after the split, N of 85. Nothing for Wake or Chatham or east. 

Yep, this watch aligns well with modeling for this event. Think northern parts of Wake could be near the warning threshold though given current looks. RAH is staying on top of this one, unlike the last one where it felt they were more reactive once the precipitation started 

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7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Man, 850’s are an absolute torch on both NAM and GFS. With the lack of an apps runner, what is causing this surge? I think combined with heavier rates that leads to higher BL temps on some modeling as it eats into the wedge from above.

I dunno why. But wowzers. Those are some dynamics

namconus_temp_adv_fgen_850_neus_41.png

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Just now, PackGrad05 said:

I think Wake will get a WWA probably tonight or tomorrow morning.

I don’t want to get too IMBY specific, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Wake got a warning just due to northern part of the county. Obviously most of the county would not verify, but based on what I’m seeing this event definitely looks to be more impactful further south and east than the last one. Raleigh proper I wouldn’t expect much in besides a light glaze, however. Could change but I had written the last one off already at this time. This one still piques my interest for mby 

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I don’t want to get too IMBY specific, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Wake got a warning just due to northern part of the county. Obviously most of the county would not verify, but based on what I’m seeing this event definitely looks to be more impactful further south and east than the last one. Raleigh proper I wouldn’t expect much in besides a light glaze, however. Could change but I had written the last one off already at this time. This one still piques my interest for mby 

and conversely, I assume our watch currently is for N of 40 in Durham maybe even N of 85. 

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2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Assuming the 850's are 10c, how would that impact accretion vs a storm with 4c at 850?  Assume the surface is 30.

TW

In general 850 temps that high would prevent much accrual. For this reason, I think they will break one way or the other. My guess is they will be closer to 4-6C since the trend is towards a colder solution/suppressed SLP.

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If I was making a forecast for this based on WSW criteria at this juncture, I’d draw a line from Henderson to Hickory. North of that would be a WSW with a >50% confidence of verifying. Go one county south and east (watches just issued) and I would put your odds of verifying at 30-50%, decreasing from NW to SE. Next tier of counties (including Wake) just outside the current watch would be <30%. WSW gradient would likely be somewhere in the most recent watches posted (like Durham county).

Thats how I see things and I think RAH has it right. GSP seems to be waiting to pull the trigger but I would expect watches with the afternoon package. To be frank, I’m surprised RAH issued watches this early in the game. They usually are more conservative 

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Guys, the RGEM is almost always overdone on the temps and amount of qpf so I would disregard it for the present. Same goes for the 12KM NAM, use the 3KM because of it's higher resolution hones in more on the 2meter temps. The 3K NAM shows Triad mostly in the 31-33 temp range during a lot of the storm

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