Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Not a fan of the euro. Pretty dry, not really much snow to speak of here. Hopefully it performs as poorly as it has of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Yikes Seems just really dry since not much sleet It's about on par if not a tiny bit wetter than 18z. I think this illustrates where that precip is going a bit better. Kuchera is being pretty funky, and since it's likely not gonna be 10:1, it's a good compromise to just extrapolate the snow precip side of the panel to ratios slightly lower than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 probably should wait until the end of the storm before dissecting maps....That's at 51 hours...It precipitates for another 20We all know we're not getting much after the initial thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: hope you didn't promise the teachers too much snow. Pretty similar run overall, as others said maybe a step towards the longer storm the CMC/RGEM show. I'd take it but my expectations are slightly higher, not gonna lie. I said 5-8 but that Euro map is awful Might get detention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Next Better update your Facebook page of this stunning new turn of events 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Yikes Seems just really dry since not much sleet It's wetter than the previous run.. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: probably should wait until the end of the storm before dissecting maps....That's at 51 hours...It precipitates for another 20 fair enough, but the extra 1" over 20 hours in DC doesn't make me jump with joy, especially since I'm down there in CHO. It does make the map look nicer though and gets JI closer to not having Loudoun County single moms and teachers burning a Ji effigy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: It's wetter than the previous run.. Yeah but drier than other guidance, he might be saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, SnowDreamer said: I jack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Yeah but drier than other guidance, he might be saying. Its not a good run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I’ll sign for the Euro right now. 7” of snow, plus sleet and freezing rain. Hook me up big time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Yeah but drier than other guidance, he might be saying. Its not a good run. I didnt realize Leesburg is so far east in Loudoun county...lol..yeah sucks for you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Here is 6z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 @Ji this one looks better... In all seriousness the Kuchera maps are being REALLY conservative. And yes I know with warm layers and mixing ratios will be low. But even in times and places where every level is below freezing its using crazy low ratios. Maybe it uses thicknesses as part of the equation and since this storm has some unusually high heights that could be throwing it off. I think maybe 10-1 maps could be better here. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Yeah but drier than other guidance, he might be saying. Its not a good run. It has .5-.6" QPF before 850s give way for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Here is 6z euro You're comparing apples to oranges there. That's a 10:1, not Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaglesrck63 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, SnowDreamer said: With the exception of the PARA, every single model of the 00Z suite so far has moved closer to consensus. @SnowDreamer I love this graphical representation of the trend. Great way to analyze the data and see where we stand across all models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: It has .5-.6" QPF before 850s give way for your area. That’s way too dry for him. He needs 1.5-1.6 QPF before it flips. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 [mention=514]Ji[/mention] this one looks better... In all seriousness the Kuchera maps are being REALLY conservative. And yes I know with warm layers and mixing ratios will be low. But even in times and places where every level is below freezing its using crazy low ratios. Maybe it uses thicknesses as part of the equation and since this storm has some unusually high heights that could be throwing it off. I think maybe 10-1 maps could be better here. Thanks for giving me 3 inches back. This shouldn't be that difficult to accumulate unless the rates are low since surface is torching at 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: [mention=514]Ji[/mention] this one looks better... In all seriousness the Kuchera maps are being REALLY conservative. And yes I know with warm layers and mixing ratios will be low. But even in times and places where every level is below freezing its using crazy low ratios. Maybe it uses thicknesses as part of the equation and since this storm has some unusually high heights that could be throwing it off. I think maybe 10-1 maps could be better here. Thanks for giving me 3 inches back. This shouldn't be that difficult to accumulate unless the rates are low since surface is torching at 26 I still like my 4-8" call for Loudon County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji this one looks better... In all seriousness the Kuchera maps are being REALLY conservative. And yes I know with warm layers and mixing ratios will be low. But even in times and places where every level is below freezing its using crazy low ratios. Maybe it uses thicknesses as part of the equation and since this storm has some unusually high heights that could be throwing it off. I think maybe 10-1 maps could be better here. Normally I’d pessimistically stomp and moan against this but given that temps aren’t an issue on the ground (I hope...) this time, kuchera might be too conservative. However I do think that in a lot of cases kuchera can be a clown map still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: This shouldn't be that difficult to accumulate unless the rates are low since surface is torching at 26 I'm also digging the afternoon highs in the 30s later today. That'll be a nice way to lead into a storm for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Normally I’d pessimistically stomp and moan against this but given that temps aren’t an issue on the ground (I hope...) this time, kuchera might be too conservative. However I do think that in a lot of cases kuchera can be a clown map still. Just like everything else it depends on the situation. In my experience the Kuchera maps seem to depend way too much on heights and thicknesses. In scenarios where its cold aloft and the surface is warm its way too liberal with snow totals. In scenarios where the surface is cold but its warm aloft is can run too low so long as the warm layer is isothermal and stays below freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 My forecast for MBY 6-10" with occasional mixing on Thursday afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: My forecast for MBY 6-10" with occasional mixing on Thursday afternoon. That's where you're at on my map lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The Ens mean is pretty sexy..wetter than the OP 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: The Ens mean is pretty sexy..wetter than the OP But does it show 5 to 8 that @Ji promised the teachers and moms? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 EPS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 324 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 VAZ056-171630- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0008.210218T0800Z-210219T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0007.210218T0800Z-210219T1100Z/ Spotsylvania- 324 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of three tenths to four tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Spotsylvania County. * WHEN...From 3 AM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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