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February 18/19th Storm Potential


stormtracker
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Just now, psuhoffman said:

There is a definite trend towards a weaker initial wave Thursday morning but a stronger second (maybe even 3rd wave) after it.  I know that complicates things but there is one factor that makes me confident we can avoid a total disaster.  There is a synergy between the waves that makes a total fail unlikely.  As wave 1 trends weaker...wave 2 trends better because the mid level boundary doesn't get blasted way to the north and the next wave activates it again.  So...if the mid level warm push is stronger like on the NAM we get wave 1 and if its weaker like on the GFS and GGEM then we get some of wave 1 and wave 2...maybe a wave 3.  But it seems unlikely the way they are set up that all the waves miss.  But this multiple wave scenario adds a level of complexity to this.  

if feel like Having a strong Wave 1 is our best bet and most fun. You are messing with fire with a weak ass wave 1

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Seems pretty likely we get a decent shot of snow first. I'm hoping for 3-4" before mixing. Heavy sleet on top of that is great. And by then we'll be tracking the friday wave and not care whats going on outside 

3-4" for you ain't gonna cut for those of us in DC. At least it's mostly frozen but that would definitely not be a win for me. And there is guidance showing that we can do better than that, including NWS pro guidance thus far. 

 

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Again, this is the attitude to have.  It's going to sleet on us..me more than you...but it's going to happen.  If people set their expectations to where they are, this will be a fun storm.  If you are going into this wanted or thinking you are getting 100% snow, then that's on you.  I look forward to our sleet overlords.

All we can do is hope. Everyone's expectations will be different though. Those of us who haven't gotten much this year won't care as much about what's likely to happen, just the way it works. 

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UKMET looks pretty good with the initial thump from the incomplete thermals I can see with the Pivotal Weather temp fields, and thankfully did not trend south from the pretty dicey 12Z run. If we get 0.5 of water prior to 18Z Thursday we will be good for 3-5 inches, which is my hope for this storm.

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1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

I have to agree at this point. 

I'm at 4". Seriously. Just give me four inches and then sleet all you want. All I've seen this year is seven inches nickeled and dimed. The best event was about four over like 50 hours. I've seen moderate snow once and it wasn't even sticking. Just give me a real snow and I'll cut my b*tching and moaning in half.

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Just now, jaydreb said:

Do you use Kuchera or 10:1 for these?  This might be a tough storm to assess because of all the sleet built into the snow totals.  

It is tough for some, yeah. These are all Kuchera (WxBell) when available, 10:1 when not. Sleet is not included, and if it were, the NAMs would be considerably higher. 

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