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February 18/19th Storm Potential


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4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

12-18" is possible here. We almost had that very end of last year, but the TROWAL setup 40 miles to the east and they got 15-18". Our area is great at missing the worst and areas to the northeast are the winners in most winter events. We have our own jackpot crew here too

NEofMidlandHoffman probably the main poster from there...

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1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Worth noting that the high was supposed to be near 50 and we only got low 40s along with the temp dropping faster than expected. From my base level understanding this should cool the ground and lead to stuff sticking but for anyone who knows stuff about the weather what would this mean for the storm? Would it change the upper levels some?

For what it's worth, do NOT worry about the coolness of the ground. The airmass arriving as advertised will help where it matters upstairs. 

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Ever since the March 2013 storm I’ve been a believer in the rpm in close. The weather channel showed that model the night before that storm and it was amazing how reality matched the sim radar that the model produced.

Note: Had anybody, including Jim Cantore, watched that model the night before they wouldn’t have been as disappointed the next day.

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Well, in terms of storm type, it's probably closer to a hybrid Miller A than a B, at least with respect to the surface reflection. Doesn't look like we'd have the transfer issues a B-type storm would have (and has given us) this year...so I can certainly see why the guidance trends would be more bullish in terms of the upper-bound or "boom" totals. I do see enough pieces of guidance (including the 18Z para GFS) that shows that "claw" configuration some of you were referring to (later changeover = heavier snow N/NW of DC, better initial FGEN/QPF and front-end thump = heaver snow S/SE of DC) -- which would leave the 50 corridor from DC to Annapolis (MBY) in a relative min. Still -- I have yet to experience a snowfall this year that yielded more than 2.5" before dry slotting or changing to sleet or freezing rain. So, my bar is 4-6", which I would most assuredly take along with any glaciation of sleet and freezing rain that follows. :D

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I hate the Euro. It's such a fail for the different scenarios that would give much enjoyment.

At least with the GFS and co, it's a ton of snow.

And with the NAM, it's 3" of sleet and then freezing rain to make the biggest mess we've seen in a while (and this is my personal favorite solution because, again, I LOVE 3"+ sleet bombs)

 

But the Euro? Non-warning snow, insignificant sleet, and a tenth an inch of Zr

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1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

Drier...but still a pretty good run...not any significant changes

I wouldn't say that exactly. The wave 2 we were talking about on the 12z run is practically nonexistent on the 18z. Regardless, the axis of heavy precip moved NW some, but 850s and 700s only gave in a little. It's actually wetter for the initial thump for IAD and points NW I believe, it's just that it lost the ~.2-.3" qpf that came from wave 2. 18z has been wonky the past 2 days, not that I'm too certain about anything in regards to off hour runs. 

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