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February 18/19th Storm Potential


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

ICON panels still coming out, but it looks pretty darn juiced. Nice to see models not lose any precip with some actually getting wetter as we get towards 40hrs until onset. Gives us a cushion for when/if they lose a bit of juice as they have so far during this winter in short range. 

Yup.  Longer duration too.  All in all a better run for just about everyone.

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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

RGEM stairstepping down to colder also.  Man, we just need the cold push to be 50/70 miles more south

850mb clearly colder on 18z vs 12z.  Not a ton, but noticeable shift toward colder/SE solution.  700mb pretty much a wash across the region compared to 12z.  

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ICON is a stone cold crushing for the northern tier and a great hit into the cities with the thump. Starting to see some solutions actually getting more juicy in cases today, and the longer duration is to thank in part. 

Also starting to see double digit total potential in some runs in the favored areas. EPS had some of these as well. 

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1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

Looks like N&W is likely to do a lot better than I95 and the cities though with whatever falls thursday evening/night...data seems to want to kind of dry slot cities and keep the party going with bands N&W...believable since weve seen that story before

Yeah that part is a tad annoying...I'm guessing orographics have something to do with that? Or is it just this season, lol

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You've been bearish all year, so this is exciting to see. What are your thoughts on the NAM being quicker than everything else?

I think there is something to it. Strong jet coming up from the southern states. Given the model has a 90kt jet I see why it’s fast, but unfortunately so will the changeover be.

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10 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Looks like N&W is likely to do a lot better than I95 and the cities though with whatever falls thursday evening/night...data seems to want to kind of dry slot cities and keep the party going with bands N&W...believable since weve seen that story before

You could always say that and be right 90 percent of the time. However, doubt the models have the placement of the Thursday night precip locked down 48 hours in advance when they just started showing wraparound precip for the first time 12 hours ago.

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10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Pretty remarkable agreement on that front running thin band of snow. At this point it targets my area on all of the models. But that could change at any point. I just find it amazing that all of them are picking up that feature. 

I think it’s pretty much impossible for the jackpot not to be in the same old spots. If temps are ever an issue that will be the case 99% of the time. Lift + temps wins every time. Never for one moment believed the Euro central MD jackpot. But I will say I’d be more than happy if this verified. Definitely better than I expected three days ago. 

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