mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: It's worth waiting for the 3km frames to be out. It will handle thermals better than the 12km run. its worth just waiting for the run to finish before trying to guess what its going to do. but what do i know. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, WVclimo said: 1.00" + QPF by 15Z. All snow. Complete shellacking. NAMed for sure. First time this season the NAM didn't win the trend. Thank God. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM 3K gives DC like.. 90 minutes of snow before sleet comes in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: Complete shellacking. NAMed for sure. First time this season the NAM didn't win the trend. Thank God. It's a win for the few but not for the many! I'll take the 3" sleet bomb I suppose. I've never seen anything like it so I'd be curious about the experience! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, mappy said: We get it. Right? Like we get it. You’re a bonafied Deb because of your climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM slower to move out this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 One local met's take on the forecast for CHO anyway. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM is evolving and I doubt it’s done. It’s been such an outlier that I don’t think we can put much faith in it. The other models, all of them, have been far steadier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Yeah, NAM is less snow than just about any other model. I'm not going to be too down about it. And even as modeled on the 18z NAM, it's still a fun storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM is going to have a big win, or go down with the ship, it appears. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 the nam is totally caving. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 As mentioned 3k is ugly for DC...sleet bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, The Ole Bucket said: One local met's take on the forecast for CHO anyway. Yeah he really puts himself out there with that one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's a win for the few but not for the many! I'll take the 3" sleet bomb I suppose. I've never seen anything like it so I'd be curious about the experience! Pretty ugly snow wise for the cities. Great if you like accumulating sleet though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Well in fairness this is his opinion of trying to forecast it: 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, NAM is less snow than just about any other model. I'm not going to be too down about it. And even as modeled on the 18z NAM, it's still a fun storm 3k has 0.91" precip in 6 hours from 12z-18z. While I want that all to be snow, the sleet beatdown would be crazy to watch (and hear). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Woof. That’s a hell of a cut off as shown on the NAM. Certainly a better look with that hot pink running through my house, but not great for I-95 and the metros. Good news is that guidance has been trending colder / snowier and not Vice versa leading up the storm, so there’s still plenty of time to kick the fall line SE another few ticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: NAM is evolving and I doubt it’s done. It’s been such an outlier that I don’t think we can put much faith in it. The other models, all of them, have been far steadier. Yeah. It still needs to catch up on the coastal part with backend snows. But it folded big time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: NAM is evolving and I doubt it’s done. It’s been such an outlier that I don’t we can put much faith in it. The other models, all of them, have been far steadier. Yes it would worry me more if the NAM was in line with everything and then started trending away within 48 hours. This run appears to be a slight trend towards the globals with a better push of colder air at higher levels to start. Of course this season you never go wrong choosing the warmest model so there's that too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Complete shellacking. NAMed for sure. First time this season the NAM didn't win the trend. Thank God. 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: As mentioned 3k is ugly for DC...sleet bomb Good grief. If you like sleet, sure, it's great for DC, otherwise, it sucks. Kutchera shows like 0.1. That's a winner! EDIT: However, I do feel like given how our storms this year have evolved, we can't dismiss this result. (As much as I'd like to) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 isnt it about trends now and not the final forecast? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Ji said: isnt it about trends now and not the final forecast? We needed a big shift south though! Because we know the inevitable tomorrow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Well, here's your relevant NAM trend 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. It still needs to catch up on the coastal part with backend snows. But it folded big time. Makes sense. The back end of the storm is still outside of NAM’s wheelhouse. Should be in better shape by 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: 3k has 0.91" precip in 6 hours from 12z-18z. While I want that all to be snow, the sleet beatdown would be crazy to watch (and hear). Where that banding among the boundary sets up likely is mostly snow. In my experience the dynamics and the ability of heavy rates to mix our a small warm layer typically wins in that band. Plus the mid level warm layer typically is where you get the dry slot. So no matter what the guidance says that band is often where the snow/sleet line sets up just south of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. It still needs to catch up on the coastal part with backend snows. But it folded big time. the NAM has been getting colder every run....thats my takeaway. its moving more towards Globals than GLobals are moving towards it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 3k has 0.91" precip in 6 hours from 12z-18z. While I want that all to be snow, the sleet beatdown would be crazy to watch (and hear). Some of those 1hr panels have 0.2-0.3" of precip fall, basically all sleet. Not sure I've ever seen sleet accumulate as fast as snow before, but regardless that would be ~0.6-1" of sleet an hour? Can't imagine seeing that happen, but it would be quite the sight. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The NAMs both took another major step towards the globals. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I even flirt with sleet out here...and perhaps get some mixing at the end.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: isnt it about trends now and not the final forecast? You mean… we shouldn’t be living or dying via verbatim clown maps models put out? Crazy concept man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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