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February 18/19th Storm Potential


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6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

And I have 7" to show for it.  The time spent per inch of snow ratio is...unfavorable.

yea...thats actually 7 inches more than you usually get...but yea.....there has been so many threats that the ratio is actually worse this year!

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Just now, jaydreb said:

It looks good, but isn’t the concern for the cities that temps are too warm at other levels besides 850?

Definitely.  That panel is wetter than 6z.  I am resigned to the fact that we will mix (and probably mix earlier than models suggest) but everything on the EPS looked a hair colder.

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25 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

And I have 7" to show for it.  The time spent per inch of snow ratio is...unfavorable.

I do wonder what the results this year would have been say 30 years ago in DC.  It’s a Nina with a generally mediocre pac base state irrespective of enso so expecting a 1996 or 2010 type result from the blocking would be ambitious in the least.  But up here for example, the results have at least been more in line with what you would expect from a great blocking winter with mediocre “other” factors. I’m very likely to end to above climo snowfall (only 5” away with a LOT of winter to go up here).  Unless we get a 1958 type finish it won’t rival the top 10% type winters but it’s likely to end up in that very good category just below that.  Obviously I do better then DC but I’m talking wrt climo. Historically when I finish above climo so does DC. I’ve noticed more of a decoupling of that in recent years though where not only do I do better in raw numbers but I also am doing much better wrt climo some years.   I wonder how much of that is the elephant in the room. 

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29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The storm is becoming a two parter in a way. Maybe we can nail both parts.

Agreed....also, the start time seems to be getting earlier with the precip racing out in front and end time getting pushed back with that second part.  Getting close to a legit 20-24hours of snow for some areas.

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5 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Agreed....also, the start time seems to be getting earlier with the precip racing out in front and end time getting pushed back with that second part.  Getting close to a legit 20-24hours of snow for some areas.

As long we don’t start trending towards some sort of redux of wave 1, wave 2, etc, I am all in for a good 20+ hours of winter weather (mostly snow I hope). 

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I believe this to be our best shot of the year. A lot going for us on this one, particularly the CAD and the upstream strength of the airmass, with good high position. Plenty of lift in the -10 to -20 layer and icing potential could be significant with temps in the 20s. Significant impacts to travel, power grid etc on this one. Not dealing with a transfer, marginal temps like the others. 

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Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

I believe this to be our best shot of the year. A lot going for us on this one, particularly the CAD and the upstream strength of the airmass, with good high position. Plenty of lift in the -10 to -20 layer and icing potential could be significant with temps in the 20s. Significant impacts to travel, power grid etc on this one. Not dealing with a transfer, marginal temps like the others. 

You've been bearish all year, so this is exciting to see. What are your thoughts on the NAM being quicker than everything else?

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I do wonder what the results this year would have been say 30 years ago in DC.  It’s a Nina with a generally mediocre pac base state irrespective of enso so expecting a 1996 or 2010 type result from the blocking would be ambitious in the least.  But up here for example, the results have at least been more in line with what you would expect from a great blocking winter with mediocre “other” factors. I’m very likely to end to above climo snowfall (only 5” away with a LOT of winter to go up here).  Unless we get a 1958 type finish it won’t rival the top 10% type winters but it’s likely to end up in that very good category just below that.  Obviously I do better then DC but I’m talking wrt climo. Historically when I finish above climo so does DC. I’ve noticed more of a decoupling of that in recent years though where not only do I do better in raw numbers but I also am doing much better wrt climo some years.   I wonder how much of that is the elephant in the room. 

I think it's a super interesting topic, but it totally makes sense that even modest overall warming trends over the past ~30 years would trigger less frozen events in mediocre setups down around here. 

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