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February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.


John1122
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.DISCUSSION...

Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that precip has
begun reaching the ground across the southern Plateau and
southern Valley, and we have received public reports of sleet in
Cleveland and 0.3 inches of snow in Whitwell. The potential for
snow and sleet will spread north and east through Midnight as
isentropic upglide continues to strengthen along with
strengthening warm, moist advection ahead of the approaching
shortwave. Surface temps are generally in the mid 30's to near 40,
but dew points in the 20's will lead to evaporative cooling as
the airmass saturates, which will support the wintry precip. RAP
soundings show a warm nose developing near 850 mb as WAA
increases, so snow/sleet mix will gradually change to more of a
sleet scenario then eventually all rain as the warmer air makes it
back to the surface. This will occur fairly quickly from S to N,
and the HREF precip types support this idea with much of the S
Plateau and S Valley through SW NC expected to be rain by 07Z
while the middle Valley changes to rain in the 07-09Z timeframe
and the N Plateau through the N Valley and NE TN into SW VA
changes to rain in the 09-12Z timeframe (perhaps later in SW VA).
The previous forecast and headlines look good, so the only change
was to issue an SPS for Bradley, McMinn, NW Monroe, and W Polk
Counties through 07Z to cover the current mixed precip


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