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February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.


John1122
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11 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


So because we don’t see this every day. Does this change the feeder winds to more out of the west? Would this effect the warm nose?


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Double edged sword IMO.  As Boone notes, it cuts the warm nose.  However, heavier rates may well have forced the air column to cool more efficiently.  

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MRX....

Key Messages...
1) A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain can be expected
across the region tonight and Thursday morning. Wintry mix will
transition to all rain by Thursday morning.
2) Very challenging forecast on precipitation type. Initial
precipitation will be influenced by wet bulb cooling due to dry
airmass and eventually strong dynamic forcing between 03-10Z.
However, models strong strong warm air advection/isentropic lift
which will fight to change precipitation to rain.
3) The strong system will also produce widespread rainfall amounts
of 1 to 1 1/2 inches with localized 2 inches+. Given the soggy
soil conditions, most of this will be runoff which may cause some
localized flooding issues.

For Today...
Little changes planned for the forecast. Areas of cloud cover
will move across the region especially the Plateau and southwest
Virginia. Current forecast highs look good.

For Tonight and Thursday, strong dynamic forcing due to enhanced
jet structure (300mb jet near 150kts). Strongest forcing will be
between 03-10Z with impressive isentropic lift across the region.
Will be a very challenging forecast of precipitation type with low
confidence of snow/sleet accumultations in the valley locations


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