Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,895
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Classbravo
    Newest Member
    Classbravo
    Joined

2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
 Share

Recommended Posts

The 12z GFS in fantasy land (post 300hrs) dumps a sizeable EML into our area. That would be a game changer. It wasn't on the 0z or 6z, though - so it's probably going poof by next run. And even on this run, it focuses any threat well north and west of us. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

@Kmlwx @high risk @Eskimo Joe

Watch up for parts of MD and NW VA till 10pm

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 330...RESENT
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   445 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2021

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 330 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

   MDC001-013-021-043-010200-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0330.210630T2045Z-210701T0200Z/

   MD 
   .    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   ALLEGANY             CARROLL             FREDERICK           
   WASHINGTON           


   PAC001-041-043-055-071-075-099-107-133-010200-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0330.210630T2045Z-210701T0200Z/

   PA 
   .    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   ADAMS                CUMBERLAND          DAUPHIN             
   FRANKLIN             LANCASTER           LEBANON             
   PERRY                SCHUYLKILL          YORK                


   VAC043-069-840-010200-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0330.210630T2045Z-210701T0200Z/

   VA 
   .    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   CLARKE               FREDERICK           


   VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

   WINCHESTER           


   WVC003-027-037-057-065-010200-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0330.210630T2045Z-210701T0200Z/

   WV 
   .    WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   BERKELEY             HAMPSHIRE           JEFFERSON           
   MINERAL              MORGAN              


   ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, yoda said:

@Kmlwx @high risk @Eskimo Joe

Watch up for parts of MD and NW VA till 10pm

         It's worth watching, but by the time it gets here, we will be losing instability (although we'll still have a decent amount of CAPE to work with), and the shear is not nearly as good here as it is further northwest.    Heck, the shear isn't even very good where the watch just got issued.   If, however, a sfc cold pool can become established, the line can organize better. and we would have some modest severe potential in a few hours.   The HRRR runs haven't been too excited, but the 18z NAM nest looks robust.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If nothing else I'd love to get the outflow through here tonight. Been getting pretty brutal in my bedroom (removed my window A/C this year because in past summers I was getting wasps and bugs through the non-airtight foam seals). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Slight risk for I-95 east and southward.

...Mid Atlantic... Mid/upper flow and deep-layer shear along the axis of stronger destabilization within the surface troughing may be fairly modest to weak, at least initially. However, strengthening of southwesterly winds to 30-40 kt in the 850-700 mb layer may be sufficient to contribute to one or two organizing clusters of storms by late this afternoon. Given the magnitude of the forecast CAPE, coupled with relatively steep low-level lapse rates, it appears that the environment will be conducive to potentially damaging surface gusts. This may be associated with locally strong downbursts initially, then with strengthening cold pools in upscale growing, northeastward and eastward propagating convection into this evening.

I just want a dose of heavy rain, and maybe get a shot of a shelf to add to my collection.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mesoscale Discussion 1139
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1045 AM CDT Thu Jul 01 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of far eastern WV...northern/central
   VA...DC...MD...DE...southeastern PA...and central/southern NJ

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 011545Z - 011745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for scattered damaging wind gusts is expected
   to increase this afternoon, and one or more Severe Thunderstorm
   Watches will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Mid-level west-southwesterly flow over the Mid-Atlantic
   associated with an upper trough/low across Ontario, Quebec, and the
   Great Lakes is not as strong today compared to yesterday. Still,
   about 25-40 kt is present generally around 3-6 km AGL based on
   recent VWP estimates from area radars. An area of precipitation with
   embedded isolated lightning flashes extends from northeastern MD
   into eastern PA as of 1545Z. There is concern that this
   precipitation and its associated widespread cloudiness may tend to
   limit destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates early
   this afternoon, particularly across eastern PA into NJ and vicinity.
   Still, there will probably be some clearing behind this initial
   activity, as evidenced by recent cloud breaks across parts of
   south-central PA.

   Better prospects for robust boundary-layer destabilization this
   afternoon will likely be realized across parts of northern/central
   VA into MD and the Delmarva Peninsula where clouds are less
   prevalent. Even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor,
   around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop this afternoon across
   this region through diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass.
   Weaker destabilization, with MLCAPE generally ranging from 500-1500
   J/kg, will probably develop farther north into eastern PA and NJ
   owing to the influence of the ongoing precipitation. Storms will
   probably increase in coverage over the next couple of hours
   along/east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and into south-central PA as
   a weak/decaying MCV moves eastward from WV. 30-40 kt of effective
   bulk shear will likely foster some storm organization, with multiple
   clusters likely moving eastward through the afternoon. The greatest
   threat for scattered damaging wind gusts should develop where
   heating of the boundary layer can steepen low-level lapse rates and
   encourage efficient downdraft accelerations.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 331
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM EDT THU JUL 1 2021

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 331 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

VAC001-003-007-009-011-013-019-029-031-033-036-037-041-047-049-
053-057-059-061-065-073-075-079-085-087-095-097-099-101-103-107-
109-113-115-119-125-127-131-133-135-137-145-147-149-153-157-159-
177-179-181-193-199-510-540-570-600-610-630-650-670-680-683-685-
700-730-735-760-830-020000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0331.210701T1640Z-210702T0000Z/

VA
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ACCOMACK             ALBEMARLE           AMELIA
AMHERST              APPOMATTOX          ARLINGTON
BEDFORD              BUCKINGHAM          CAMPBELL
CAROLINE             CHARLES CITY        CHARLOTTE
CHESTERFIELD         CULPEPER            CUMBERLAND
DINWIDDIE            ESSEX               FAIRFAX
FAUQUIER             FLUVANNA            GLOUCESTER
GOOCHLAND            GREENE              HANOVER
HENRICO              JAMES CITY          KING AND QUEEN
KING GEORGE          KING WILLIAM        LANCASTER
LOUDOUN              LOUISA              MADISON
MATHEWS              MIDDLESEX           NELSON
NEW KENT             NORTHAMPTON         NORTHUMBERLAND
NOTTOWAY             ORANGE              POWHATAN
PRINCE EDWARD        PRINCE GEORGE       PRINCE WILLIAM
RAPPAHANNOCK         RICHMOND            SPOTSYLVANIA
STAFFORD             SURRY               WESTMORELAND
YORK


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA           CHARLOTTESVILLE     COLONIAL HEIGHTS
FAIRFAX              FALLS CHURCH        FREDERICKSBURG
HAMPTON              HOPEWELL            LYNCHBURG
MANASSAS             MANASSAS PARK       NEWPORT NEWS
PETERSBURG           POQUOSON            RICHMOND
WILLIAMSBURG
$$
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Not terribly impressed with the warned storm so far. But it's also very close to the radar site. 

Revising this now - seeing some good wind above the surface on velocity. Looking better with each scan. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...