Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
 Share

Recommended Posts

16 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

10z and 11z HRRR looked decent. Again, best chances south and east - but looked a little better perhaps for DC proper. But yeah - that 6z NAM nest run was pretty meh. We'll see. 

        Agreed with all of this.    While I think that there are several mitigating factors (most notably the potential for subsidence behind the morning wave), I will note that   1)  the 6z NAM nest for whatever reason tends to go weak on convection    2)    I usually take it as a very positive sign when a morning, elevated MCS somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic is producing lightning.     That's a great sign that we have steeper than usual lapse rates.      

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, high risk said:

        Agreed with all of this.    While I think that there are several mitigating factors (most notably the potential for subsidence behind the morning wave), I will note that   1)  the 6z NAM nest for whatever reason tends to go weak on convection    2)    I usually take it as a very positive sign when a morning, elevated MCS somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic is producing lightning.     That's a great sign that we have steeper than usual lapse rates.      

I think even my area (just north of DC/Silver Spring in Eastern MoCo may even look okay for right now. I might be right on the edge of the better stuff - but somebody will probably get a cool surprise today. Hail isn't one of the things we normally do well - there's a select few cases in the records of days when hail is an elevated threat even over wind gusts. 

Going to be an afternoon of radar watching. 

Have zero desire to drive through hail with my semi new car - but had plans to head to Annapolis this evening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z HRRR is rolling in and it likes Fairfax County and then the Bay and Eastern Shore. Pretty much meh in all other areas. I'm tempted to say the fat lady is singing for places from Loudoun/Frederick, MD and west. Right now I'd probably draw a polygon for best chances running from Baltimore proper WSW back to Gaithersburg, SSW to Fairfax and then perhaps down to EZF and then including everything south and east of that line. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

12z HRRR is rolling in and it likes Fairfax County and then the Bay and Eastern Shore. Pretty much meh in all other areas. I'm tempted to say the fat lady is singing for places from Loudoun/Frederick, MD and west. Right now I'd probably draw a polygon for best chances running from Baltimore proper WSW back to Gaithersburg, SSW to Fairfax and then perhaps down to EZF and then including everything south and east of that line. 

            I'd generally agree, but a complicating factor is that no guidance has a very good handle right now on the strengthening convection over northeast WV and far western MD.     Curious to see whether that has any influence on the evolution today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, high risk said:

            I'd generally agree, but a complicating factor is that no guidance has a very good handle right now on the strengthening convection over northeast WV and far western MD.     Curious to see whether that has any influence on the evolution today.

All I'm hearing is "That activity is going to lay down some nice boundaries and we are going full on derecho mode" :lol: 

  • Haha 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Twitter is blowing up talking about it. Best explanation I saw was something about a low-level inversion trapping the sound, but who knows.

I heard it here by the Wilson Bridge; just by the sound I knew it was rolling along from somewhere else.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Coverage will be limited, but there should in theory still be a few storms on the front over the next 4-5 hours.    And any of those storms that are able to sustain strong updrafts could produce some severe winds or hail.      I'm not super excited about this event, but I'm also not ready to say that it's over.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
451 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

VAC079-165-282130-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0530.000000T0000Z-210928T2130Z/
Rockingham VA-Greene VA-
451 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROCKINGHAM AND GREENE COUNTIES...

At 451 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Massanutten, or
11 miles southeast of Harrisonburg, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large
         enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to
         roofs, siding, and windows is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Massanutten, Stanardsville, Elkton, Ruckersville, Mcmullen, Rocky
Bar, Quinque, Lydia, Haneytown, Mission Home, Swift Run, Amicus,
Mcgaheysville, Saint George and Shady Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3825 7859 3827 7865 3827 7866 3837 7876
      3844 7872 3837 7843 3832 7838 3832 7837
      3831 7836 3820 7841
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 297DEG 21KT 3837 7868

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pathetic as usual.......  Went from likely to chance of storms.  Reminds me of last winter in a way, when three winter storm warnings here dropped a total of 4 inches of snow.  :axe:

 

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
327 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Latest Mount Holly Update ---  

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There`s still a thunderstorm threat into the evening behind
this morning`s convection, but most of the CAMs are backing off.
Still expecting a gradual moistening and surface heating in
cloud breaks ahead of the surface front and MLCAPE in the
1000-1500 range, but areal coverage is waning. PoPs have been
adjusted downward.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...