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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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i have this "farmer forecasting" theory that we don't usually do well with storms when we're having a breezy day leading up to it.  it'll probably fail with a cold front pushing through later, but curious how we do this afternoon.  hoping it does hold off because i want to get a trail ride in.

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4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i have this "farmer forecasting" theory that we don't usually do well with storms when we're having a breezy day leading up to it.  it'll probably fail with a cold front pushing through later, but curious how we do this afternoon.  hoping it does hold off because i want to get a trail ride in.

Would think it's not just about wind speed - but more important wind direction. Consider a breezy south wind bringing in humid/unstable air with a warm front passage. That would be an indicator of potentially higher severe potential versus a stiff NE breeze bringing in a wedge in the cool season or spring/fall. 

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5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Would think it's not just about wind speed - but more important wind direction. Consider a breezy south wind bringing in humid/unstable air with a warm front passage. That would be an indicator of potentially higher severe potential versus a stiff NE breeze bringing in a wedge in the cool season or spring/fall. 

true, we certainly would expect severe during a tropical storm running under us, but something about having that stagnant air mass that we score in.  i'm mostly just basing it off experience without any science, which is why it'll probably fail lol.  definitely agree with your point for today's example.

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4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

true, we certainly would expect severe during a tropical storm running under us, but something about having that stagnant air mass that we score in.  i'm mostly just basing it off experience without any science, which is why it'll probably fail lol.  definitely agree with your point for today's example.

Not to mention the plentiful other factors like how much sunshine we get, lapse rates - so many ways to fail around here. Some of it is probably anecdotal as you mention. 

I think for a day like the June 2012 derecho - you're absolutely right - that HOT, stagnant airmass fueled the maintenance of the storms as they plowed east. 

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20 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Not to mention the plentiful other factors like how much sunshine we get, lapse rates - so many ways to fail around here. Some of it is probably anecdotal as you mention. 

I think for a day like the June 2012 derecho - you're absolutely right - that HOT, stagnant airmass fueled the maintenance of the storms as they plowed east. 

yea, like the last couple weeks leading up to ida it was almost the same airmass everyday...humid/stagnant and afternoon storms, at least close to the mason dixon line.

i'm still annoyed that i didn't take vid of the derecho.

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Sounds like evening fun... afternoon LWX AFD 

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Stacked low is located well to the north in Canada while a cold
front trails through upstate NY and the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. An MCV is moving through southeast VA this afternoon,
and will likely represent the first "round" of thunderstorms
which will brush by the Northern Neck and Southern Maryland.

Guidance has been quite variable with where and when the next
storms will develop, although so far it appears the stable
layers in the 12Z IAD sounding are holding strong. The terrain
and/or a weak pressure trough could serve as an initiation
point later this afternoon. Additional convection could form or
strengthen as the actual cold front presses eastward this
evening. For this afternoon, moderate instability and DCAPE are
in place near and east of the Blue Ridge, though shear is still
lacking. Thus expect activity to be somewhat pulsey and
disorganized. Increasing shear will overspread the region this
evening, so storms may be able to organize into a line or
clusters. Damaging winds will be the main threat, although some
hail is possible. There may be a brief window for a tornado or
two this evening as a low level jet spreads into the region.
This jet and slow frontal motion may also result in some
training of storms which could lead to some localized flooding.

While the biggest severe weather threat will likely be this
evening, showers and some thunderstorms will likely continue
along the frontal zone through the night as it progresses
eastward, some anafrontal in nature. Some locally heavy rain
could continue during this time
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