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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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58 minutes ago, mappy said:

Storms firing along a boundary up my way, everywhere but my backyard. Been rumbling for 30+ min from stuff the popped up to my north and have drifted around in S PA 

Hoping the stuff west hits

Good rumbling coming from those storms to our north.  Had the mute the squawker on the Boltek.

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image.png.d837c968dbf407b08f1d793a7c4414cd.png

 Mesoscale Discussion 1628
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1205 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

   Areas affected...South-Central Pennsylvania...Western
   Maryland...Eastern West Virginia...and Northern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281705Z - 281900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts possible with the strongest
   storms this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows strong insolation this morning
   has given way to scattered convective development over the northern
   part of region. Surface temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s F
   amid rich low-level moisture (dew point temperatures in the upper
   60s and low 70s F). This is yielding around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE.
   With weak convective inhibition and continued
   heating/destabilization, additional pulse-like storms are expected
   to develop throughout the afternoon and gradually move southeastward
   with time. Weak flow throughout the atmosphere will limit storm
   organization, however, a few isolated damaging wind gusts will be
   possible with the strongest storms given at least marginal low-level
   lapse rates near 8 C/km that should develop, particularly over parts
   of northern Virginia and vicinity later this afternoon. Given the
   expectation for an isolated damaging wind threat, watch issuance is
   not expected.

   ..Karstens/Grams.. 08/28/2021

 

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
MDC031-VAC059-107-290000-
/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0486.210828T2318Z-210829T0000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
718 PM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland...
  Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia...
  Northwestern Fairfax County in northern Virginia...

* Until 800 PM EDT.

* At 718 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Poolesville,
  moving south at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Germantown, Reston, Herndon, Vienna, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes
  Island, Brambleton, Poolesville, Dulles International Airport,
  Potomac, Ashburn, Oakton, Sterling, North Potomac, Tysons Corner,
  Wolf Trap, Great Falls, Countryside and Arcola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&
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With a more NW track, looks like there may be a decent risk of severe for I-95 and points east. Mount Holly mentioning the possibility in their AM AFD.

Models are converging on the eventual track of the remnant low, with the 00z CMC making a noticeable shift northward, much more in line with the ECMWF/GFS. The consensus track would lead to the heaviest rainfall axis generally in the northern half of the CWA, with alarming QPF of 2-5+ inches in a broad region along and north of the track of the low. Meanwhile, the warm sector may sneak into the southern CWA, where a threat of strong to severe storms would exist (given sufficient instability and strong vertical shear). In short, the latest models suggest a multi-faceted and rather impactful event for the region. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts, as we continue to fine-tune the forecast axis of heaviest rainfall and the areas with the highest risk of severe weather.

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