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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


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Morning LWX disco re Fred

[Quote]

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The remnants of Fred are forecast to track up the western slope
of the Appalachians Wednesday with moderate to heavy rain
spreading mainly along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. The
axis of heaviest rainfall will be determined by the exact track
of Fred and speed as it lifts northward, but with the tropical
airmass in place with ample moisture, several inches of rain
will be possible with a threat for flooding. Current thinking is
the western half of our CWA will favor a greater risk of
flooding given the latest forecast track of Fred and the
assistance of terrain along the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge
Mountains. As with many tropical systems, there will be
sufficient wind shear in the atmosphere as it tracks to our
west. The threat for any thunderstorms that develop to the east
of the track will be capable of turning severe, and perhaps
spawn tornadoes. Again, the exact track and evolution of the
system will be key is narrowing down this threat over the next
24 hours. The Storm Prediction Center highlights much of the CWA
in a Marginal Risk for severe storms Wednesday into Wednesday
night, with damaging winds and tornadoes highlighted as the main
threats.

The remnants of Fred will continue to progress northward toward
the Mason Dixon Line and Pennsylvania into Wednesday night,
with a continued heavy rainfall and flooding threat across the
area. Model guidance progresses Fred to our north by Thursday
morning, allowing for decreasing rain chances to emerge in its
wake. We`ll remain on the eastern flank of the broad upper
trough, so as instability builds Thursday afternoon/evening,
additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
mountains.

[/Quote]

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Current take from Mount Holly on potential for severe with Fred-

One other item to watch: with our region being in a right-of-track position late Wednesday and Wednesday night, we may have to monitor for the risk of rotating cells and an isolated tornado threat. The SPC SWODY2 has added a Marginal Risk of severe weather for the region. Due to weak dynamic forcing, including the lack of any nearby synoptic frontal systems, this potential looks lower than normal with a tropical system. It also looks like instability will be quite limited. Nonetheless, this will at least be something to keep an eye on.

 

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14 minutes ago, high risk said:

     Is it really a "surprise" when the models show discrete rotating cells 2 days in advance, and SPC puts us in an initial Day 2 MRGL with potential for a later upgrade?    B)

someone will say it came without warning. 

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Curious to see what SPC does here with the updated day 2 outlook in 20 minutes.    I think there is enough in the 12z CAMs today to go with a SLGT (5% TOR) in roughly a Farmville, PA to Williamsport, PA corridor (~80 miles on either side), but I wouldn't be shocked if they want until tomorrow morning to upgrade either.

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54 minutes ago, high risk said:

Curious to see what SPC does here with the updated day 2 outlook in 20 minutes.    I think there is enough in the 12z CAMs today to go with a SLGT (5% TOR) in roughly a Farmville, PA to Williamsport, PA corridor (~80 miles on either side), but I wouldn't be shocked if they want until tomorrow morning to upgrade either.

Personally, I'm thinking an Intercourse to Balls Mills line, but that's probably just splitting hairs.

  • Haha 3
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15 minutes ago, high risk said:

Curious to see what SPC does here with the updated day 2 outlook in 20 minutes.    I think there is enough in the 12z CAMs today to go with a SLGT (5% TOR) in roughly a Farmville, PA to Williamsport, PA corridor (~80 miles on either side), but I wouldn't be shocked if they want until tomorrow morning to upgrade either.

     They stuck w the MRGL.....

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