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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1034 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING 
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA 
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING UPDATE: CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECAYING MCS
OVER OHIO. CLOUD DEBRIS IS STARTING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS DECAYING MCS, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED FOR A SHORT TIME EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT ARE NOW IN THE PROCESS OF BURNING OFF.
CONSIDERABLE QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN REGARDING THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE, STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A TORNADO OR 
TWO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE/TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA OVER THE COMING HOURS AND WILL UPDATE OUR
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. 

 

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21 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Anyone's lights flickering yet?

Yes but it's not from the weather! ;)

Sun is breaking out, temps starting to move up.  We can do this.  The ENH has moved north but we're still firmly in its grip as compared to being in the bullseye earlier.  Never liked bullseyes anyways, staring into those could mean an ass full of horns, not fun! :P

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I take it back. The sun lost it's battle at the harbor. Back to full clouds. it feels like the last time we had actual clearing and sun/excellent heat up my way ahead of potential storms was the Derecho. I mean, i know it hasn't been that long, but....feels like it. We sock in clouds almost 100% of the time on days like this. 

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MD issued for our northern and western areas:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1388.html

Not all that enthusiastic and only a 40% probability, so we'll see what happens but evidently they are not all sure the current cloud cover will break up enough to let the more aggressive scenarios for later this afternoon occur?

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